Lub khw muag khoom tam sim ntawd saib. Los yog nws?
Cov peev nyiaj sib tw thoob plaws lub hli ntawm Tsib Hlis raws li cov tub ua lag luam xav txog poob nyiaj txiag kev loj hlob projections thiab tsawg dua-stellar khwv tau kwv yees los ntawm cov khw muag khoom.
Txawm tias cov xov xwm bearish, tsis tu ncua volatility, thiab zoo ib yam kev kwv yees ntawm ib qho kev lag luam rov qab los, S&P 500 xaus lub hli tsis hloov pauv tom qab txhim kho kev rov qab los ob peb lub lis piam dhau los.
Qhov rov qab muaj qee qhov ntawm Wall Street sib cav tias nws yog lub sijhawm ua opportunistic thiab yuav cov npe raug ntaus uas tseem muaj lub hauv paus muaj zog, tab sis tsis yog txhua lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj tau qhia nws cov neeg siv khoom tawm mus thiab yuav cov khoom lag luam.
Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb hnub Tuesday, a Morgan Stanley pab pawg coj los ntawm tus thawj coj ntawm US tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees Michael Wilson tau sib cav tias cov khoom lag luam rov tshwm sim nyob rau ib nrab ntawm lub Tsib Hlis yog tsis muaj dab tsi ntau tshaj li kev lag luam dais.
"Cov kab hauv qab, peb cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tseem ceeb tias lub lim tiam dhau los lub zog yuav ua pov thawj tias yog lwm qhov kev lag luam dais thaum kawg," lawv sau. "Peb pom qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob ze 4250-4300 hauv S&P 500 nqe lus nrog Nasdaq thiab cov kaus mom me me yuav tuaj yeem sib sau ua ke ntau dua ntawm feem pua raws li ib txwm muaj thaum lub rooj sib txoos zoo li no. "
Rau lawv cov ntsiab lus, dais kev lag luam rallies yog ib qho keeb kwm.
Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb hnub Wednesday, Bank of America Kev tshawb fawb cov tswv yim, coj los ntawm Savita Subramanian, tau sau tseg tias 65% ntawm cov lag luam dais tau pom kev sib tw ntawm 10% lossis ntau dua txij li xyoo 1929, tab sis kev sib tw feem ntau ua raws li kev mob ntxiv rau cov tub ua lag luam.
"Ntawm 26 kev lag luam ua ntej txij li xyoo 1929, 17 (65%) muaj kev sib tw ntau dua 10%, tshwm sim 1.5 zaug ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm ib lub lag luam dais," cov kws tshaj lij tau sau. "Lub 1932-33 dais lag luam, uas kav 116 hnub ua lag luam, muaj rau qhov sib txawv 10% + kev sib tw."
Bank of America cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias lawv pom "yuav ua li cas thiaj tsim tau" ntawm cov khoom lag luam nyob rau lub sijhawm ze, tab sis kuj sib cav ntau qhov tsis sib haum xeeb tom ntej. Lawv pom zoo cov neeg siv khoom qaij lawv qhov kev ncaj ncees raug rau "zoo" cov npe nrog cov nyiaj tau los muaj zog, tiv thaiv cov neeg ua haujlwm, thiab cov tuam txhab uas muaj nqi zog uas yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev nce nqi.
Thiab Morgan Stanley tseem xav tsis thoob.
Wilson thiab nws pab neeg tau sawv los ntawm lawv qhov kev kwv yees tias S&P 500 yuav poob mus rau 3400 thaum nruab nrab Lub Yim Hli, lossis nyob ib ncig ntawm 18% los ntawm qib tam sim no, txawm hais tias lub khw lag luam tau rov qab los tsis ntev los no.
Cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias tam sim no bullishness hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam feem ntau yog los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam kev ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam tau "oversold" thiab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tej zaum yuav xav txog qhov kev ncua ntawm nws cov paj laum nyob rau lub yim hli ntuj, tab sis lawv ntseeg tias cov tub ua lag luam tau underestimating lub hauv paus. lub txhab nyiaj txaus siab rau "kev lag luam poob siab" nrog cov paj laum nce ntxiv txhawm rau kom tau txais txiaj ntsig hauv kev tswj hwm.
"Cov kab hauv qab yog tias kev nce nqi tseem siab dhau rau Fed qhov kev nyiam, yog li txawm li cas los xij pivot cov tub ua lag luam yuav cia siab rau yuav tsis tseem ceeb heev los hloov qhov kev poob qis hauv cov nqi sib npaug, hauv peb qhov kev xav," lawv sau.
Pab pawg Morgan Stanley kuj tau sib cav tias Fed yuav nruj nws txoj cai nyiaj txiag rau hauv kev lag luam kev loj hlob qeeb thiab tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam tseem siab dhau. Yog tias lawv yog, kev yuav qhov kev sib tw yuav tsis yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws rau cov tub ua lag luam.
Wilson tuav 3900 12-lub hlis tus nqi phiaj rau S&P 500, uas sawv cev rau qhov muaj peev xwm 5% downside los ntawm qib tam sim no.
"Tsis muaj ib qho ntawm qhov no xav tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, uas tsuas yog ua rau kev poob qis zuj zus," nws hais ntxiv.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/don-t-too-excited-stock-174647166.html