Cov tub lag luam, cov tub ua lag luam thiab cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag tau suav tag nrho rau hnub Wednesday daim ntawv qhia txog tus nqi siv khoom lag luam los qhia txog kev poob qis hauv cov xov xwm txhua xyoo hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nce nqi rau lub Xya Hli. Tab sis muaj lwm daim duab faus rau hauv cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas cov ntaub ntawv uas muaj lub siab nyiam rau kev lag luam jolt.
Nws yog hu ua qhov tseem ceeb xyoo dhau ib xyoo kev nyeem ntawv CPI, ib qho kev ntsuas uas tshem tawm cov khoom noj tsis haum thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob. Nws tau los ntawm 5.9% rau 12 lub hlis uas xaus rau lub Rau Hli, thiab qhov kev pom zoo yog tias nws yuav nce mus txog 6.1% ntawm ib xyoo dhau ib xyoo rau Lub Xya Hli. Gargi Chaudhuri ntawm BlackRock Inc., tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag hauv ntiaj teb, pom cov ntawv nyeem tseem ceeb los nyob rau hauv txawm me ntsis siab dua, ntawm 6.2%, thaum ib khub ntawm Goldman Sachs cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau ceeb toom tias qhov ze ze ntawm US daim duab nyiaj txiag "zoo li yuav nyob twj ywm tsis xis nyob."
Nyeem: Goldman Sachs hais tias nws sai dhau rau kev lag luam ua lag luam 'tag nrho Fed pivot'
Ib qho kev txav siab dua hauv txhua xyoo CPI tus nqi tseem ceeb yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb vim tias nws yuav pom tias muaj kev cuam tshuam qhov tseeb ntawm kev nce nqi - thaum tseem ua rau muaj kev cia siab thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag nyob rau lub hli dhau los uas tus nqi nce siab. Ntau tus tub lag luam thiab cov tub ua lag luam feem ntau tau koom nrog tag nrho cov lus tshaj tawm txhua xyoo CPI tus nqi rau Lub Xya Hli, uas suav nrog zaub mov thiab lub zog - thiab qhov kev pom tias nws tej zaum yuav poob rau 8.7% lossis 8.8%, los ntawm yuav luag 41-xyoo siab ntawm 9.1% nyob rau lub Rau Hli, tom qab factoring nyob rau hauv tsis ntev los no poob ntawm cov nqi roj thiab cov khoom muag.
"Qhov kev xav txog kev nce nqi tseem ceeb tseem ceeb rau cov tub ua lag luam," Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors' Chief Investment Officer Tony Roth thiab Chief Economist Luke Tilley tau sau hauv email rau hnub Tuesday. "Kev nce nyiaj tsis tu ncua yog hnyav rau kev xav rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev lag luam, tab sis cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tseem sib xyaw thiab kev txhawj xeeb tau nce siab tias Fed txoj cai nruj tuaj yeem thawb Asmeskas mus rau kev lag luam."
"Txawm hais tias peb tseem cia siab tias kev nce nqi yuav txo qis mus rau yav tom ntej, qee cov khoom yuav nyob twj ywm siab tawv thiab ua rau qhov kev xav tsis zoo," lawv hais.
Cov cim qhia ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag qhov kev cia siab dav dav tias kev nce nyiaj tau los yooj yim yog ntau: US cov khoom lag luam feem ntau tau nce los ntawm lawv qhov qis hauv nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli, txawm tias lawv ua tiav qis dua rau hnub Tuesday. Lub caij no, cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab thiab ntev nyiaj txiag tau nqis los ntawm lawv qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Rau Hli - nrog rau cov nqi sib tw, raws li Tradeweb cov ntaub ntawv.
Hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag ib puag ncig, qhov twg cov nyiaj daus las tseem ceeb rau US cov ntaub ntawv xav tsis thoob, "kev ua lag luam yuav tsum tau txiav txim siab seb qhov kev lag luam qeeb qeeb yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj qhov nplaum thiab muaj zog," said TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz, Mazen Issa, thiab. Gennadiy Goldberg.
Ntawm Pennsylvania-based Hirtle Callaghan & Co., uas saib xyuas txog $ 20 nphom hauv cov khoom muaj nqis, Brad Conger, tus lwm thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev, tau hais tias nws xav tias kev nce nqi thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov kev txaus siab los daws nws yog ob qho tib si underestimated. Conger pom kev nce nyiaj nce siab pivoting deb ntawm cov khoom mus rau cov kev pabcuam, thaum pom tias nws nyuaj npaum li cas rau "cwj mem" kev paub txog tus nqi tam sim ntawd thaum kev nce nqi tuav.
"Xav tias koj ua haujlwm ntawm ib lub tuam txhab ntawm 1,000 tus neeg," Conger sau hauv email. "Lub hli ntawm lub Tsib Hlis, 28 ntawm koj cov npoj yaig tawm thiab lees txais cov kev tshaj tawm tshiab ... Koj qhov chaw ua haujlwm pub rau txhua tus neeg ua lag luam thoob plaws ib teev nyiaj hli nce ntawm 3.6% ntawm tus nqi txhua xyoo. Tab sis ntawm no yog rub. Cov neeg ua haujlwm 972 uas nyob twj ywm paub meej tias cov neeg ua haujlwm tau txais dab tsi ntawm lawv txoj haujlwm tshiab. Nws tau dhau los ua lawv cov nqi cia tshiab ntawm kev ua haujlwm. Qhov no yog li cas inertia txhim kho hauv kev nce nqi thiab vim li cas nws nyuaj rau kev tshem tawm. "
"Xyuam ua haujlwm ib yam nkaus," tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev tau hais. "Ib feem me me ntawm cov ntawv xauj tsev tshiab tshwm sim hauv qhov nruab nrab, tab sis txhua tus neeg paub tias qhov nqi xauj tsev tshiab yog dab tsi."
Hnub Tuesday, tag nrho peb qhov kev lag luam tseem ceeb
DJIA,
COMP,
kaw qis dua, coj los ntawm 1.2% swb hauv Nasdaq Composite, nrog cov tub ua lag luam tsis kam tso rau kev lag luam loj ua ntej hnub Wednesday cov ntaub ntawv CPI. Lub caij no, Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag tau hloov pauv ntau dua li qhov sib kis ntawm 2- thiab 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tau poob qis rau ib hnub qis ntawm yuav luag rho tawm 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, nrog rau 2-xyoo tus nqi.
TUBMUSD 02Y,
nce ntawm qhov nrawm dua li 10-xyoo tus nqi
TUBMUSD 10Y,
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-by-a-drop-in-us-headline-inflation-markets-will-be-attuned-to-another-figure-on- Wednesday-11660067176?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo