Tsis txhob yuav Tshuag tam sim no

Nov yog qee cov lus qhia uas koj yuav xav tsis thoob thaum hnov ​​los ntawm tus kws sau ntawv peev-sau ntawv xov xwm: Tsis txhob yuav cov khoom lag luam tam sim no.

Qhov ntawd yog, tshwj tsis yog tias koj tuaj yeem teb qhov tseem ceeb "yog!" rau peb nqe lus nug no:

1. Puas yog koj nqis peev rau lub sijhawm ntev?
2. Puas yog koj nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam uas tsis yog tsuas yog loj hlob lawv cov nyiaj faib tab sis tsuj uas them nyiaj loj hlob?
3. Puas yog koj tsuas yog nqis peev ib feem me me ntawm koj cov khoom tuav tseg (thiab ua tib zoo khaws cov khoom hauv cov nyiaj ntsuab kom caij cua daj cua dub no)?

Yog tias koj teb tias yog rau tag nrho peb, zoo heev! Kuv mam qhia koj li cas yuav tsum thov nyob rau hauv ib qho kev cog qoob loo los xyuas kom meej tias koj tab tom kaw hauv kev them nyiaj nyab xeeb thaum tiv thaiv koj tus kheej los ntawm hnub no Fed-tsav kev lag luam ntshai.

Thiab yog tias koj yog tseem tuav speculative junk (thiab yog, qee cov nyiaj faib nyiaj tau raug suav hais tias yog khib nyiab - tsis txhob cia lawv cov nyiaj them "halos" dag koj!), lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws los pov tseg yog lub Ib Hlis. Lub sijhawm thib ob zoo tshaj plaws yog tam sim no.

"Kev lag luam maj mam" Tam sim no-Ua ntej ntawm Kev Yuav Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag-yog Qhov Tseem Ceeb

Niaj hnub no lub khw qus hu rau qhov tsis sib xws "2-khiav" mus kom ze. Txoj Kev 1 yog nyob rau feem ntau ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab thaum peb caij tawm cua daj cua dub thiab teeb tsa peb tus kheej kom nrawm nrawm rau sab nraud. Txoj Kev 2 tsuas yog rau cov neeg uas xav ua lag luam tiag tiag thiab ua rau lub sijhawm ntev.

Koj pom, kuv yog ib tug contrarian thawj thiab foremost, thiab peb xwb siab xa peb cov nyiaj ntsuab hoard thaum peb pom ib tug ntshiab ntug—thiab kuv tseem tsis tau pom ib tug.

Dab tsi ntawm ntug peb tab tom nrhiav? Peb tsuas yog xav ua lag luam tag nrho thaum tus neeg ua lag luam niaj hnub tau muab pov rau hauv daim phuam. Thiab muaj ntau qhov ntsuas uas tuaj yeem qhia peb raws nraim thaum peb lub sijhawm tau los. Xav txog, piv txwv li, qhov ze saib CNN Ntshai/Greed Index, uas zaum ntawm 26 thaum kuv sau:

Qhov ntawd yog qhov qis-tab sis tsis qis li rau (rau!) peb pom ob peb lub lis piam rov qab.

Qhov qis dua yog qhov zoo dua los ntawm peb qhov kev xav tsis sib xws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias peb tab tom nrhiav kev lag luam viav vias rau qee qhov nce nrawm (thiab cov nyiaj faib tawm!). Kev nyeem ntawv hauv qab daus txhais tau hais tias tus neeg ua lag luam nruab nrab tau tso tseg. Niaj hnub no kev nyeem ntawv siab dua ntawm 26 yog teeb meem vim nws txhais tau tias tus txiv neej nruab nrab thiab tus poj niam tab tom pib rov qab los hauv qhov kev ua si.

Bullish kev xav thaum lub sij hawm ntev kev poob qis feem ntau tops tawm nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm zoo li no. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias cov ceg tom ntej ntawm lub khw muag khoom poob tuaj yeem pib sai sai. Joe thiab Jane Average yeej ib txwm nkag rau hauv lub sijhawm tsis ncaj ncees lawm!

Peb Lub Sijhawm Ntev thiab Lub Sijhawm luv 2-Track Dividend Play

Qhov no yog qhov uas peb lub tswv yim ntse 2-khiav tawm los, vim peb tuaj yeem tso tau ib co cov nyiaj mus sij hawm ntev tam sim no thiab coj kom zoo dua ntawm cov nyiaj cheb muaj rau peb, thaum sau peb cov nyiaj faib loj hlob los ntawm cov khoom lag luam no thaum peb rub lawv mus ntev.

Keeb kwm nyob ntawm peb sab ntawm no.

Nco ntsoov lig 2018, thaum Fed tau nce nqi thiab khiav tawm ntawm nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas - thiab kev lag luam cuam tshuam "taper tantrum"? Tom qab ntawd, "America's ticker" - qhov kuv hu ua SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY
PY
SIV
), lub index fund zoo nkauj txhua leej txhua tus tuav-yog tumbling.

Suab paub? Qhov ntawd yog vim hnub no peb tab tom saib kev teeb tsa zoo sib xws, nrog cov nqi nce thiab Fed pib tshem tawm nws cov khoom loj ntawm cov ntawv cog lus -$9 trillion tsim nyog lub sij hawm no. Cov txiaj ntsig tau zoo ib yam rau "America's ticker"…

Xyoo 2018 kev poob qis dhau los ua lub sijhawm zoo rau cov tswv cuab ntawm kuv Thaum Yauv kev faib nyiaj loj hlob. Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis xyoo ntawd, txog rau thaum kawg ntawm kev muag khoom, peb tau khaws peb tus tswv tsev ntawm tes. American Ntauwd (AMT), kev ntseeg vaj tse peev uas nws "cov neeg xauj tsev" suav nrog AT & T
T
(T) thiab Verizon (VZ).

Peb nyiam AMT vim tias nws yog qhov kev ua si "tus lej xov tooj" classic, them nws cov neeg siv khoom tus xov tooj rau kev siv nws lub network ntauwd, tom qab ntawd muab feem ntau ntawm cov nyiaj no rau peb raws li cov nyiaj faib uas nce txhua lub hlis twg!

Qhov kev them nyiaj nce ntxiv, tig mus, ua zoo li "Cov Ntawv Sib Tw Sib Nqus," rub tus nqi sib koom hauv lockstep. AMT khaws cov nyiaj them rov qab los ntawm kev sib kis, "sib nqus" cov khoom lag luam hauv cov txheej txheem thiab ua rau peb muaj 57% tag nrho rov qab thaum peb muag hauv lub Peb Hlis xyoo no.

Kom paub meej, muaj qee qhov kev kub ntxhov thaum pib ntawm peb lub sijhawm tuav, raws li kev lag luam tawm tsam nrhiav qhov hauv qab. Kuv cia siab tias yuav muaj kev teeb tsa zoo sib xws lub sijhawm no nyob ib puag ncig.

Yog li vim li cas peb tsis mus "tag nrho"?

Vim tias qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb ntawm tam sim no thiab 2018: kev nce nqi tau khiav ntawm 8.3%, uas yuav ua rau Fed Chair Jay Powell los ntawm kev sib piv deb ntawm tus nqi nce siab, zoo li nws tau ua thaum nws coj kev lag luam mus rau hauv qhov chaw plaub xyoos dhau los!

Nyob rau hauv lub siab, peb nyiam lub hauv paus banker yog ib tug nom tswv tsiaj, thiab inflation yog tus thib 1 teeb meem nws tab tom ntsib niaj hnub no. Yog li txhawm rau pab tawm Main Street, nws txaus siab txi Wall Street.

Qhov qeeb ntawm Fed lub tshuab luam ntawv nyiaj loj heev muaj twb ua rau lub lag luam dav dav rau, ahem, yog. Tab sis lub peev nyiaj tiag tiag tseem tsis tau los. Fed yuav tsum tshem tawm $ 1 lossis $ 2 trillion los ntawm nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas ntawm tus nqi $95 billion ib hlis!

Peb xav tias yuav mus li cas?

Yog li ntawd yog tias koj yog kev yuav tam sim no, nco ntsoov tias lub sijhawm tsis hloov pauv uas peb pom rov qab rau xyoo 2018 yuav zoo li nyob ib puag ncig ntev dua lub sijhawm no. Yog vim li cas kuv thiaj li xav kom nqis peev rau lub sijhawm ntev, thiab tsuas yog nrog ib feem me me ntawm koj cov nyiaj ntsuab - khaws cov khoom muaj nyob rau thaum tiag tiag khoom plig los txog.

Lub sijhawm no, rau txhua qhov khoom lag luam uas koj tab tom xav txog hnub no, xyuas kom koj xav tau qhov ntsuas qis beta. Beta yog ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm volatility: ib tug Tshuag nrog ib tug beta ntawm 1 txav ntawm roughly tib yam ceev raws li lub lag luam (nce los yog down). Betas qis dua 1 yog qhov hloov pauv tsawg dua li kev ua lag luam; cov saum toj no 1 yog volatile ntau.

Piv txwv li, xav txog Thaum Yauv tuav AmerisourceBergen
ABC
(ABC), uas tuav ib feem tsib ntawm tag nrho cov tshuaj uas muag hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas. Nws txoj kev lag luam ruaj khov ua rau tus nqi ruaj khov. ABC muaj 5-xyoo beta ntawm 0.45 los yog li ntawd, uas txhais tau hais tias nws txav 45% sai li lub khw.

Hauv lwm lo lus, nyob rau hnub thaum S&P 500 poob qis 3%, cov khoom lag luam no tsuas yog qis dua 1.5% lossis li ntawd. Qhov ntawd yog txoj kev xav. Hauv kev muaj tiag, nws tseem zoo dua. ABC yog ib qho ntawm ib pawg me me ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev uas nyob twj ywm ntsiag to ntau dua txhua xyoo!

ABC them tus nqi qis 1.2% cov nyiaj faib, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog tag nrho zaj dab neeg. Lub tuam txhab nce nws cov nyiaj them los ntawm 5% toj xyoo. Ntxiv rau, muaj lwm qhov hauv paus catalyst ntawm no tsuas yog Thaum Yauv cov tswv cuab tau qhia tawm rau: cov khoom lag luam yog pheej yig heev ua tsaug rau txoj cai tsis paub meej. Qhov ntawd tau daws nrog lub tuam txhab kev daws teeb meem opioid tsis ntev los no - uas ABC tom qab ntawd txiav tawm ntawm nws cov se. (Lub teb chaws twg peb nyob!)

Cov neeg tswj hwm tsis zoo siab, tab sis qhov no yog qhov siv tau, raws li peb txoj cai se. Peb tau nce 50% ntawm peb qhov kev yuav khoom ntawm ABC hauv Nkaum Yields, thiab cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv defy lub ntiajteb txawj nqus.

Brett Owens yog tus thawj coj ua nqes peev rau Contrarian OutlookCov. Yog xav paub cov nyiaj tau los zoo dua, tau txais koj daim ntawv theej dawb tshaj daim ntawv ceeb toom tshwj xeeb tshaj plaws: Koj Cov Nyiaj Txiaj Ntsig Thaum Ntxov: Cov Nyiaj Them Loj Loj—Txhua Lub Hlis—Txiv Mus Ib Txhis.

Kev tshaj tawm: tsis muaj