Nyob rau hauv lub blink ntawm ib lub qhov muag nyob rau hnub Tuesday, lub US daim ntawv cog lus kev lag luam lub hom phiaj tau hloov rov qab mus rau kev ntshai ntawm ib tug tsis xav txog ntawm ib tug ntse kev lag luam slowdown thiab deb ntawm persistently inflation nyob rau hauv ib tug ntau ntawm cov hnub trading.
Qhov kev xav ntawd tau tshwm sim tom qab cov ntaub ntawv qhia US muag tsev tshiab poob rau lub Xya Hli mus rau theem qis tshaj hauv ntau tshaj rau xyoo. Gauges ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev pabcuam sectors kuj tuaj hauv qab qhov kev cia siab, txhawb kev qaug zog zoo li pom hauv eurozone. Rau ntau hnub Tuesday, cov tub lag luam tau nqis peev hauv qhov zoo dua-tsis yog lub caij nyoog ntawm 50-piv cov paj laum nce siab los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai tsim nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, uas yuav txhawb nqa cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub hom phiaj ntawm 2.75% thiab 3% - rub. rov qab los ntawm hnub Monday qhov kev cia siab rau qhov loj dua 75-piv-taw taw mus nce toj lub hlis tom ntej. Tab sis tom qab cov plua plav tawm, cov nyiaj pub rau cov tub lag luam yav tom ntej tau nyob ntawm lub laj kab dua, tus nqi kwv yees li 50-50 lub caij nyoog ntawm 50 lossis 75 lub hauv paus taw tes mus. Thaum kawg ntawm hnub, cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb tau hloov mus rau kwv yees li 48% -52% hauv kev pom zoo ntawm qhov loj dua.
Kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tau raug ntes ntawm ob qhov lus piav qhia - ib qho ntawm cov teeb meem nce nyiaj txiag uas yuam cov neeg tsim cai tswj hwm kom nce nqi qiv nyiaj, lwm qhov ntawm kev lag luam qeeb uas daws teeb meem nyiaj txiag thiab ua rau Fed pivot. Ob qho ntawm cov lus piav qhia no tuaj yeem ntxiv rau ib yam dab tsi uas zoo nkaus li thiab zoo li qhov phem tshaj plaws ntawm txhua lub ntiaj teb: stagflation.
"Cov ntaub ntawv tsis muaj zog thiab kev ua lag luam tab tom xav txog Fed pivot" nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntawm ib nrab-taw tes mus ncig lub Cuaj Hli, hais tias tus tub luam Tom di Galoma ntawm Seaport Global Holdings hauv Greenwich, Connecticut. "Kuv tsis pom qhov pivot, tab sis kev lag luam pib pom ib qho."
"Peb tab tom pib mus rau qhov kev poob qis tiag tiag hauv kev ua lag luam vaj tsev, uas tag nrho tsis zoo rau kev lag luam vim tias kev lag luam roj ntau ntawm cov nuj nqis uas tau tshwm sim," nws hais hauv xov tooj rau hnub Tuesday. "Tab sis kuv qhov kev xav yog tias Fed yuav xav kom tau txais cov nqi siab npaum li nws tuaj yeem ua ntej qhov kev poob qis tag nrho yuav tshwm sim nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis. Fed yuav nce mus rau hauv kev lag luam qeeb, tab sis thaum tus lej dhau los ua tiag, tib neeg tau ntshai. "
Hnub Tuesday, Asmeskas cov txiaj ntsig tau pib poob thoob plaws hauv pawg thawj coj tom qab cov ntawv ceeb toom poob siab ntawm Lub Xya Hli kev muag khoom hauv tsev tshiab, coj los ntawm 2-xyoo.
TUBMUSD 02Y,
uas ntes tau txoj kev xav tau ntawm Fed tus nqi txoj cai. 10 xyoo yield
TUBMUSD 10Y,
poob qis dua 3% thaum lub sijhawm New York thaum sawv ntxov, thiab nws kis mus rau 2-xyoo nqaim mus rau rho tawm 24 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hauv qhov tseem ceeb-kev txhawj xeeb ntawm qhov kev cia siab ua ntej hnub Friday hais lus los ntawm Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell ntawm lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv lub rooj sib tham hauv Jackson Hole. , Wyo.
Tab sis mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm US trading hnub, Tuesday sawv ntxov lub Treasurys selloff tau eased, tawm 7- txog 30-xyoo yields modestly siab dua.
Lub caij no, Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tawm tsam kom rov qab tau lawv cov taw qhia rau hnub Tuesday, ib hnub tom qab tshaj tawm lawv hnub phem tshaj txij li lub Rau Hli ntawm kev ntshai tias Fed yuav mus tom ntej nrog cov paj laum siab dua. Dow industrials DJIA ua tiav los ntawm 154 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 0.5%, thaum S&P 500 SPX xaus 0.2% qis dua thiab Nasdaq Composite nyiaj hloov me ntsis. Lub caij no, ICE US Dollar Index DXY tau nqis 0.5%, retracing ntau ntawm hnub Monday ua ntej.
"Muaj ntau qhov tsis paub tseeb nyob rau ntawd thiab cov lus piav qhia zoo li hloov pauv lub lim tiam dhau los ib asthiv thiab qee zaus ib hnub rau ib hnub," tus thawj coj ua lag luam John Farawell nrog Roosevelt & Cross, tus kws sau nyiaj txiag hauv New York. "Cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom hauv tsev tshiab zoo li hloov khoom, nrog rau kev lag luam ruaj khov, ua ntej kev xav tau hloov mus rau qhov nruab nrab."
Farawell tau hais hauv xov tooj tias "Tib neeg tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab tiag tiag nrog qhov tshwm sim,"
Rau Jay Hatfield, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm Infrastructure Capital Advisors hauv New York, uas saib xyuas ib puag ncig $ 1.18 nphom hauv cov cuab tam, "cov dab neeg tiag tiag" tom qab hnub Tuesday cov nyiaj ua lag luam hloov pauv yog tias "US daim ntawv cog lus ua tau zoo dua lwm lub ntiaj teb."
Yog vim li cas US kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus tau muag tawm rau hnub Friday yog vim tias lub ntiaj teb daim ntawv cog lus lag luam "tau tawg," raws li Hatfield. Lub teb chaws Yelemees luam tawm 5.3% lub hli dhau ib hlis nce hauv cov nqi tsim khoom thiab qhov "tsis tuaj yeem xav txog" xyoo dhau los nce ntau dua 30%, thaum cov nqi roj av hauv qee qhov ntawm Tebchaws Europe tau ntaus lub zog sib npaug ntawm $ 500 ib chim, stoking ntshai tias European Central Bank yuav "ntau dua."
Tab sis txij li hnub Tuesday, qib 3% ntawm US 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tau pom kev txaus siab los ntawm ob tus neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom, thiab nyob hauv "zoo nkauj zoo nkauj," Hatfield tau hais hauv xov tooj, ntxiv tias nws cia siab tias Fed yuav nce tus nqi los ntawm 50 lub hauv paus. cov ntsiab lus nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli.
Nws tau hais tias "Koj tsis tuaj yeem saib US tus nqi hauv lub tshuab nqus tsev thiab US daim ntawv cog lus yog qhov txaus nyiam tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb," nws hais. Lub caij no, lub sij hawm luv luv Treasury yield trading saum tus nqi ntev dua yog "tus nqi hauv stagflation."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disappointing-us-data-has-bond-traders-considering-possible-half-point-fed-rate-hike-in-september-11661277926?siteid=yhoof2&yptr= yahoo