Digital Advertising Slump Qhov Teeb Meem Tshiab Ntawm Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Tom ntej?

Tau ntau xyoo lawm, kev poob qis hauv kev tshaj tawm hauv zos yog ib qho kev ceeb toom ntxov ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam uas yuav los tom ntej, nrog rau kev muag khoom hauv zos feem ntau yuav poob ntau npaum li ib xyoos ua ntej ntawm kev muag khoom hauv lub tebchaws. Qhov laj thawj yog qhov tseeb; kev tshaj tawm hauv tebchaws siv sijhawm ntau thiab nyiaj txiag los npaj thiab saib xyuas. Cov lag luam hauv zos (xav txog koj lub khw muag tsheb hauv zos lossis lub khw muag khoom), ntawm qhov tod tes, yog ceev kom hnov ​​​​cov nyiaj tau los poob qis thiab tuaj yeem nqa lub xov tooj thiab tshem tawm tag nrho cov kev tshaj tawm yav tom ntej.

Txawm li cas los xij, lub sijhawm lawv hloov pauv. Cov kev tshaj tawm digital kev muag khoom poob tam sim no yuav dhau los ua qhov ceeb toom ntxov uas peb tab tom yuav nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob tom ntej. Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev xav ntawm ntau tus ntawm Phab Ntsa Street tom qab Snap CEO thaum Lub Tsib Hlis 23 ua rau ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tsis thoob nrog qhov kev xav tsis zoo ntawm kev muag khoom rau Q2, ib yam dab tsi uas zoo li yuav tshaj tawm ntawm lwm lub tuam txhab online vam khom rau kev muag khoom xws li Alphabet.
GOOGL
Inc.'s Google
GOOG
, Meta's Facebook, Pinterest thiab lwm yam.

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Hais lus ntawm JP Morgan's 50^th Ntiaj teb no Technology, Media thiab Communications Conference 2022 Lub Tsib Hlis 23 hauv Q&A Session nrog JPMorgan Chase & Lub Tuam Txhab Tus Thawj Coj thiab Tus Kws Tshawb Fawb Hauv Is Taws Nem, Snap Co-founder, CEO & Tus Thawj Coj Evan Spiegel tau lees paub tias yav dhau los kev pom ntawm 20-25% cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob hauv 'Q2 tau tawm ntawm lub qhov rais.

"Zoo, ib puag ncig kev lag luam macroeconomic tau poob qis ntxiv thiab sai dua li qhov peb xav tau thaum peb muab peb cov lus qhia rau lub quarter thib ob. Yog li txawm hais tias peb cov nyiaj tau los txuas ntxiv nce xyoo dhau ib xyoos hauv lub quarter thib ob, nws yuav zoo li cov nyiaj tau los thiab EBITDA yuav los hauv qab qis kawg ntawm peb cov kev taw qhia, "said Spiegel. SNAP kaw 43% ntawm $ 12.79 thiab tam sim no pauv ntawm 15% ntawm nws 52-lub lim tiam siab ntawm $ 83.34 ntawm 09/24/21.

Spiegel tau nthuav tawm ntau qhov tsis zoo cuam tshuam rau kev muag khoom, suav nrog cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom lag luam, kev nce nqi, kev txhawj xeeb txog cov paj laum, nrog rau lwm yam teeb meem.

Hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag dhau los, kev poob qis ntawm kev muag khoom digital tsis yog qhov ceeb toom ntxov ntawm kev lag luam poob qis. Hauv qhov tam sim no hu ua "Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj" ( ntsuas txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2007 txog Lub Rau Hli 2009), cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias kev muag khoom hauv zos tau nqis los ntau dua 3% hauv xyoo 2007 thaum lub teb chaws muag khoom tau nce ntau dua 2% .

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Ob lub teb chaws (-4%) thiab hauv zos (-9%) poob rau xyoo 2008, nrog rau xyoo 2009 yog ib lub xyoo txaus ntshai rau ob ntu ntawm kev tshaj tawm, nrog rau hauv zos cratering yuav luag 21% thiab lub teb chaws poob los ntawm 14%. Tab sis zoo li Wells Fargo
WFC
analyst Steven Cahill tau sau ntawv hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb txog lub Tsib Hlis 24, "Lub sijhawm thaum ntxov ntawm COVID-19, cov kev tshaj tawm digital siv tau snapped (tsis muaj lub hom phiaj) qis tshaj plaws, nrog TV hauv zos thiab xov tooj cua tom qab tsis ntev tom qab ntawd. National TV thiab tawm hauv tsev ntau tom qab… ”nws sau tseg.

Thiab qhov tseeb muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm digital ad muag poob sai sai mus rau xyoo 2020, tab sis nws tsis yog qhov qhia txog kev lag luam tag nrho. Hloov chaw, cov nyiaj tau los hauv zos thiab hauv lub tebchaws tau poob 7% hauv 2020, thiab txawm hais tias digital tau poob qis (nce tsuas yog 2.4% hauv 2020 tom qab pop ntawm +23% hauv 2019) nws tau nce rau xyoo tas los.

Lwm tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom uas tseem ceeb toom SNAP ceeb toom tuaj yeem yog xov xwm tsis zoo rau kev lag luam feem ntau. Mark Mahaney, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Evercore
EVR
ISI, tau sau tias qhov kev xav tau muab los ntawm SNAP "qhia tias tsuas yog ib hlis xwb, qhov chaw ib puag ncig tau hnyav zuj zus ntxiv ... Kev tshaj tawm digital yog kev sib tw, zoo li txhua qhov kev tshaj tawm, thiab macro headwinds yuav nyuaj heev."

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Qhov tseeb, peb muaj sijhawm ntev rau kev lag luam kev lag luam, uas feem ntau tshwm sim txhua 10 xyoo. Thiab txawm hais tias nws tau nce ntau dua, cov kws tshawb fawb feem ntau tsis xav tias nws yuav ntev npaum li qhov kev lag luam poob qis dua. Ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm cov kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag thiab lwm tus kws tshaj lij tshawb fawb los ntawm National Association of Business Economics hais qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob qis hauv 12 lub hlis yog ntau dua 25%.

Goldman Sachs economists yog ntau sanguine hais txog kev lag luam, tab sis tseem lawv tau tso tawm phau ntawv qhia rau Cov Neeg Siv Khoom yuav npaj li cas rau kev lag luam poob qis. "Kev lag luam poob qis tsis yog qhov yuav tsum tau zam, tab sis cov neeg siv khoom pheej nug dab tsi los ntawm cov khoom lag luam thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis," sau ntawv tus thawj coj ntawm US tus tswv cuab kev ncaj ncees David Kostin raws li tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tau tshaj tawm rau lub Tsib Hlis 19. Goldman Sachs pegged qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob ntawm 35%. hauv ob xyoos tom ntej no.