Deflation Looms rau Overstocked Retailers raws li Tsev Neeg Wealth Shrinks

Rau cov npe ntawm kev lag luam mob taub hau plaguing cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov khw muag khoom hnub no, xav txog qhov qub truism: dab tsi nce mus yuav tsum los.

Tus nqi ntawm cov roj stings, tab sis qhov pib tsim rov qab los ntawm kev sib kis txhais tau hais tias lub tsheb koj siv roj tuaj yeem (tam sim no) muaj nqis nyob ze lossis ntau tshaj qhov koj them rau nws. Tus nqi nruab nrab rau cov tsheb siv tau nce xyoo tas los ze li 30%.

Ib yam li ntawd, ib lub tsev pheej yig nyob hauv ntau lub tebchaws Asmeskas tau ua ib lub unicorn. Tab sis rau ntau lab tus tswv tsev mus sij hawm ntev - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog Boomers thiab Gen Xers - kev nce nqi tau nce ntau, ntxiv ntau dua $ 6 trillion hauv kev ncaj ncees rau cov tswv tsev nyob, raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws cov ntaub ntawv. Qhov ntawd pab thawb cov qhab nia credit ib txwm rau cov qiv nyiaj qiv rau cov ntaub ntawv-siab hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo tas los rau 788.

Ob xyoos dhau los - piled nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm tsoom fwv teb chaws stimulus kev them nyiaj - qhov nruab nrab cov tswv tsev nrog ib tug nqi tsev sau $67,000 nyob rau hauv "tappable equity," raws li Black Knight, lub tsev txhab nyiaj cov ntaub ntawv lag luam cruncher. Thiab coj mus rhaub lawv muaj.

Qhov cua daj cua dub no ntawm daim ntawv muaj nyiaj txiag tau txhawb nqa cov neeg siv khoom kom siv nyiaj nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm tus nqi nce sai rau txhua yam.

Cov ntaub ntawv tam sim no ntawm Department of Commerce qhia tau hais tias cov neeg siv khoom siv nyiaj tau nce hauv lub Plaub Hlis rau plaub lub hlis sib law liag.

Uas yuav hloov. Qhov nce mus yog pib nqis los.

Cov khw muag khoom tau ntes nrog cov khoom muag ntau dhau - raws li Walmart thiab Target tau tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no — yuav them tus nqi hauv kev txhawb nqa hnyav, kos cim, thiab tus cwj mem liab. Tom qab ntau tshaj li ib xyoos ntawm kev sib tw nrog cov teeb meem xws li cov neeg ua haujlwm thiab cov txee khoob…

Lub tswv yim ntawm tus nqi yog hais txog mus rau theem nruab nrab.

Nyob rau hauv kev lag luam deflating uas zoo li inevitably mus rau hauv kev lag luam, cov neeg siv khoom yuav pib rub rov qab. Ntawm thawj cov khoom kim heev mus yuav tshwm sim hauv online kev lom zem. Netflix, uas tau kwv yees thawj peb lub hlis twg cov neeg siv khoom loj hlob ntawm 2.5 lab, hloov pauv 200,000. Raws li streaming qhia JustWatch.com, dhau xyoo dhau los, Amazon tus Prime cov neeg siv suav suav tau sagging.

Thawj hint ntawm dab tsi yuav los tshwm sim nyob rau hauv cov txheeb cais tsis ntev los no ntawm kev muag khoom hauv tsev. Redfin, lub vev xaib vaj tsev nyob hauv lub vev xaib, tshaj tawm tias ze li ib ntawm tsib tus neeg muag khoom txiav lawv cov nqi nug hauv plaub lub lis piam xaus rau lub Tsib Hlis 22, tus nqi siab tshaj txij li lub caij nplooj zeeg xyoo 2019, ua ntej muaj kev sib kis.

Redfin tau sau tseg tias lwm qhov ntsuas ntawm qhov kev thov tau qis dua: Google "tsev muag khoom" kev tshawb nrhiav tau qis dua 13%; Daim ntawv thov kev yuav tsev qiv nyiaj tau qis dua 16%, thiab kev muag khoom ntawm tsev neeg tshiab hauv lub Plaub Hlis yog 16.6% qis dua lub Peb Hlis.

Tom qab ib xyoos uas tus nqi tsev tau nce ze li ntawm 20%, "Lub tsev lag luam tau nce siab," Raws li Moody's Analytics Tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag, Mark Zandi. "Peb yuav pom tus nqi poob qis hauv ntau lub khw muag khoom."

Tib txoj kev yog tsim nrog autos. Raws li manufacturers untangle teeb meem nrog cov khoom ntawm cov khoom, kev ua lag luam rau cov tsheb siv tau pib muag. Raws li Cox Automotive, nws dav-ua raws li Manheim Siv Tsheb Tus Nqi Index ntawm cov nqi muag khoom tau nqis los ntawm 6.4% txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis. Kev muag khoom ntawm cov tsheb siv tau poob rau lub Plaub Hlis los ntawm Lub Peb Hlis los ntawm 13%.

Ntxiv rau cov kev lag luam mega no thawj zaug ntawm kev tawm haujlwm thiab ntiav ntiav hauv kev lag luam thev naus laus zis, uas tau vam meej thaum muaj kev sib kis.

Hauv kev lag luam uas tau tshoov siab rau Kev Tshaj Tawm Zoo Tshaj Plaws - qhov twg muaj ntau txoj haujlwm ntau dua li cov neeg txaus siab los sau lawv - Facebook tsis ntev los no tau siv kev ntiav ntiav; Netflix tau hais tias nws tau txiav 150 txoj haujlwm; thiab Amazon tau hais tias nws tau dhau los ua neeg ua haujlwm ntau dhau thiab yuav raug kaw ib tug puv tes ntawm cov chaw faib khoom, muaj feem cuam tshuam ntau txhiab tus neeg ua haujlwm.

Fed tsab ntawv tshaj tawm kev siv nyiaj zaum kawg tau sau tseg tias cov nyiaj khaws cia tau poob qis, qhia tias cov neeg siv khoom ua kom cov tog mus los ntawm kev nyiag lawv lub txhab nyiaj piggy. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog nco ntsoov tias feem ntau kev lag luam poob qis tsis pivot ntawm ib lub dime, thiab lawv tsis tshaj tawm lawv tus kheej ua ntej. Nws yog qhov tsis tu ncua drip-drip ntawm cov xov xwm tsis zoo thiab txo qis cov khoom muaj nqis uas sib sau kom txog thaum cov neeg siv khoom paub tias qhov qub qub tsis rov qab los thiab lawv zoo dua tau siv rau qhov tshiab.

Raws li rau cov tuam txhab uas xav tau kev npaj rau yav tom ntej thiab tsis yog REACT xwb, muaj kev sib tw loj heev (thiab muaj peev xwm) ua rau nws tsis raug (lossis yog). Qhov kev pheej hmoo yog nyob rau hauv kev ua si nws muaj kev nyab xeeb heev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nrog cov qib siab ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab qhov tshwm sim. Yog li, cov thawj coj lag luam no ua dab tsi?

Zoo, muab lawv cov cwj pwm keeb kwm, feem ntau yuav tsis muaj lub sijhawm, hnov ​​​​mob sai li sai tau thiab nco cov lej peb lub hlis twg raws li lawv tshaj tawm.

Nws puas tuaj yeem zam tau?

Kuv xav tias muaj peev xwm "saib ib ncig ntawm lub ces kaum" thiab pom me ntsis ntawm qhov yuav los yog yooj yim dua li feem ntau xav ... lawv tsuas yog yuav tsum tau tawm thiab tham nrog lawv cov neeg siv khoom, nug ntau cov lus nug thiab mloog zoo li "feem ntau. "ntawm lawv cov neeg siv khoom tau npaj rau yav tom ntej.

Ib yam li qhov tseem ceeb, lawv tuaj yeem "sim" tag nrho lawv cov kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv thev naus laus zis los pab lawv ntsuas tus nqi, uas yog qhov teeb meem nyuaj tshaj plaws rau lub hlis tom ntej thiab peb lub hlis tom ntej.