Daim ntawv cog lus-kev lag luam ntsuas ntawm qhov yuav tshwm sim hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis tsuas yog txaj muag ntawm kev ncav cuag nws qhov kev nyeem tsis zoo tshaj plaws txij thaum Lub Kaum Hli 1981, thaum cov paj laum yog 19% raws li Paul Volcker Federal Reserve.
Qhov ntsuas ntawd, uas ntsuas qhov sib kis ntawm 2-
TUBMUSD 02Y,
thiab 10-xyoo Treasury yields
TUBMUSD 10Y,
ua tiav New York kev sib tham rau hnub Thursday ntawm rho tawm 82.5 cov ntsiab lus hauv paus. Hauv lwm lo lus, 10-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig tau ua lag luam 82.5 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hauv qab 2-xyoo cov txiaj ntsig.
Nyob rau ntau lub hnub, qhov kev sib kis tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv txoj kev mus tshaj nws lub Kaum Ob Hlis 7 qis ntawm rho tawm 84.9 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus thiab zoo li mus rau qhov tsis zoo tshaj plaws txij li Lub Kaum Hli 2, 1981, thaum nws mus txog rho tawm 96.8 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, raws li Dow Jones Market Cov ntaub ntawv. Hloov chaw, nws poob tsuas yog txaj muag ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis lub cim.
Source: Tradeweb ICE
Qhov kev hloov pauv txuas ntxiv tuaj rau lub sijhawm thaum cov tub ua lag luam thiab cov neeg tsim cai tswjfwm tab tom sib tw rau kev nce qib ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve ntxiv thiab lub sijhawm ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag, lossis qeeb qeeb ntawm kev nce nqi, uas yuav siv sij hawm qee lub sij hawm los ua nws txoj hauv kev. Ib qho ua tau nyiaj hauv ob sab phlu Tom qab hnub Thursday lub lag luam kev lag luam yog tias ntau tus neeg ua lag luam zoo li ntseeg tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav lo los ntawm nws cov phiaj xwm kev sib ntaus sib tua - thiab thaum kawg yeej nws.
Cov khoom lag luam pib sib sau ua ke rau hnub Thursday, tab sis tso tseg kev nce qib ib nrab hnub. Tag nrho peb qhov kev lag luam tseem ceeb tau ua tiav rau hnub, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
tawm los ntawm 0.7%, S&P 500
SPX,
poob 0.9%, thiab Nasdaq Composite qis dua 1%.
Tshuag Market Hnub no: Dow muab cov txiaj ntsig tau zoo raws li cov qauv kev lag luam muaj zog txuas ntxiv
"Peb qhov kev hu rau 2s / 10s kom ncav cuag -100 bp rov qab los rau ntawm lub rooj tom qab tshwm sim tsis tshua muaj tseeb" thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los, thaum kev sib kis tau kaw ib ncig ntawm rho tawm 55 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, BMO Capital Markets tus kws tshaj lij Ian Lyngen thiab Ben Jeffery tau hais hauv ib daim ntawv Thursday.
Rau ntau hnub Thursday, 2s / 10s kev sib kis zoo li npaj siab mus rau qhov tsis zoo ntau dua li txhua lub sijhawm txij li lub Kaum Hli 1981, thaum tus nqi nce nqi txhua xyoo los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas tau siab dua 10%, cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 19%. nyob rau hauv Volcker, thiab Asmeskas kev lag luam nyob hauv nruab nrab ntawm ib qho ntawm nws kev poob qis tshaj plaws txij li Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj.
Tab sis tom qab qhov tsis muaj zog 30-xyoo kev sib tw hauv Asmeskas yav tav su, 10-xyoo tus nqi rov qab nrog rau txhua qhov txiaj ntsig thoob plaws qhov nkhaus raws li cov tub ua lag luam muag tawm Treasurys.
Qhov tsis zoo 2s / 10s kis tau yooj yim txhais tau hais tias 2-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag tus nqi yog kev lag luam deb tshaj nws cov 10-xyoo tus neeg ua lag luam, raws li cov tub ua lag luam thiab cov tub lag luam muaj feem cuam tshuam rau lub sij hawm ze ntawm Fed tus nqi hikes nrog rau kev txo qis nyiaj txiag thiab / lossis kev lag luam tsis zoo. lub sij hawm ntev.
Ordinarily, Cov Nyiaj Txiag Tshaj Tawm yuav tsum tau nqes mus rau pem hauv ntej thaum pom qhov kaj; nws nqes nqes mus rau qhov tsis zoo thaum muaj pessimism ntau dua. Qhov tsis zoo ntawm kev sib kis ntau dua, cov lus tsis zoo yog los ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam, kev xav mus - txawm hais tias cov kws tshaj lij ntawm Goldman Sachs thiab cov kws tshawb fawb-kov-kho cov pioneer Campbell Harvey tau ceeb toom tawm tsam kev sib txuas rau kev poob qis.
Nyeem: Kev sib sib zog nqus ntawm Treasury yield nkhaus tsis qhia txog kev lag luam poob qis: Goldman Sachs
Tsis tas li ntawd saib: Economist uas pioneered siv cov cuab yeej ua raws li kev lag luam kev lag luam hais tias nws yuav xa 'cov teeb liab cuav'
Cov tub luam, cov kws tshaj lij thiab cov tub ua lag luam tau sib tham ntawm ob qho lus piav qhia ntawm txoj hauv kev zoo tshaj plaws rau kev nce nqi. Ib qho yog tias Asmeskas tuaj yeem mus rau lub sijhawm "transitory disinflation," nyob rau hauv uas txhua tus nqi cua txias nce tawm mus rau fleeting. Lwm qhov yog tias yuav muaj ib qho nrawm thiab xav tsis thoob poob hauv kev nce nqi, nrog rau cov lus tshaj tawm txhua xyoo ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi Performance index mus rau 2% nyob rau hauv ib lub hlis, ntawm qhov kev xav tias US kev lag luam yuav tsis muaj peev xwm zam kev lag luam.
Villanova University tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam Peter Zaleski pom ob qho lus piav qhia tseem ceeb yog ib qho thiab tib yam, nrog qhov sib txawv tsuas yog ib qho kev xav txog lub zog ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam - qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev txiav txim siab tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem poob sai npaum li cas.
Hauv lwm daim ntawv cog lus-kev ua lag luam txav mus rau hnub Thursday, qhov ntsuas kev lag luam thib ob - qhov sib kis ntawm tus nqi ntawm 3-hli T-nqi.
TUBMUSD03M,
thiab 10-xyoo Treasury yield - mus rau rho tawm 105.7 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, piv rau cov ntaub ntawv qis ntawm rho tawm 127.73 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus teem rau Lub Ib Hlis 18.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deeply-inverted-treasury-curve-heads-for-41-year-milestone-11675964504?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo