Cov neeg ua lag luam tau mob siab rau xav txog lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj cov ntaub ntawv tus nqi siv khoom lag luam (CPI), tab sis tam sim no nws tau tawm - cov tshuaj tiv thaiv yog muted. Lub S&P pauv tsuas yog 0.6% thaum nruab nrab hnub Thursday tom qab Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm (BLS) qhia Cov neeg siv khoom tus nqi poob 0.1% lub hli dhau los, thiab kev nce nqi ntawm xyoo dhau los poob rau 6.5%.
Cov ntaub ntawv sawv cev rau qhov poob qis los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm 40 xyoo, 9.1% ncov thaum Lub Rau Hli, tab sis lawv kuj yog raws nraim li Wall Street xav tau. Thiab cov nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb - uas tsis suav nrog cov khoom noj tsis haum thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob - tau nce 0.3% rau lub hli thiab 5.7% xyoo dhau los.
Tseem, BMO Wealth Management tus thawj coj kev lag luam tawm tswv yim Yung-Yu Ma, hais Fortune tias nws yog "daim ntawv tshaj tawm zoo heev nrog kev nce nqi nruab nrab hauv ntau thaj chaw." Thiab qee cov kws tshaj lij tau sib cav tias nws qhia txog qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais rau cov khoom lag luam.
Cov nqi roj av tau poob qis 9.4% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab yog "txog tam sim no tus neeg txhawb nqa loj tshaj" rau tag nrho kev poob nyiaj txiag, raws li BLS. Cov tsheb siv thiab cov tsheb thauj khoom kuj poob 2.5% lub hli dhau los, thiab 8.8% xyoo dhau los. Thiab txawm hais tias rov qab mus ncig lub caij so so, airfares poob 3.1% nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Cov nqi khoom noj tau nce 10.4% xyoo dhau los, tab sis tsuas yog 0.3% lub hli dhau ib hlis - ib qho kev poob qis los ntawm 0.5% nce hauv Kaum Ib Hlis thiab 1.1% dhia hauv Lub Xya Hli.
Thoob plaws xyoo 2022, Fed cov neeg ua haujlwm tau nce cov paj laum xya zaug hauv kev mob siab los txo qis nyiaj txiag rau lawv 2% lub hom phiaj, vam tias yuav tsis ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis hauv cov txheej txheem. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tus thawj tswj hwm, Jerome Powell, nto moo piav txog nws lub hom phiaj yog ib hom "muab tsaws" rau kev lag luam.
Ma tau hais tias tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab tshaj tawm yog qhov qhia tias Powell cov kev tawm tsam ua haujlwm, uas tuaj yeem ua rau nws ua rau qeeb qeeb ntawm cov paj laum nce mus tom ntej.
"Qhov no yuav tsum soften lub Fed lub suab ntawm lub rooj sib tham tom ntej no, thiab nws txhawb peb txoj kev ntseeg nyob rau hauv ib tug mos mos tsaws nyob rau hauv uas cov nyiaj txiag poob qis tab sis kev ua lag luam kev lag luam tseem noj qab nyob zoo thiab kev khwv nyiaj txiag recalibrate rau siab dua cov paj laum nyob rau hauv lub quarters tom ntej," nws hais.
Tab sis Ma tau sau tseg tias qee cov khoom ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tseem ceeb nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, suav nrog cov kev pabcuam hauv tsev kho mob thiab kev tuav pov hwm tsheb, thiab lwm yam. Thiab BlackRock tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tas li thoob ntiaj teb, Rick Rieder, tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Thursday tias CPI tsab ntawv ceeb toom qhia tias kev nce nqi yog "kev hloov pauv," tab sis ntxiv cov lus ceeb toom:
“Deflating inflation yog me ntsis zoo li tso cua tawm ntawm lub zais pa; qhov nrawm thiab cov duab tuaj yeem ua rau kwv yees nyuaj, "nws sau. "Hnub no cov lej qhia txog kev nce nyiaj txiag, uas thaum txhim kho, tab tom ua qhov tsis sib xws thiab tseem nyob deb (raws li ib xyoos-rau-xyoo) los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Tebchaws Reserve lub hom phiaj."
Qhov kawg gasps ntawm dais lag luam - los yog nws tag nrho cov nqi nyob rau hauv?
Nrog kev nce nqi poob qis hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los, qee cov kws tshaj lij tau sib cav txog kev lag luam dais - uas pom S&P 500 poob qis li 20% xyoo tas los - tuaj yeem xaus rau.
James Demmert, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Main Street Research, hais rau Fortune tias nws ntseeg tias cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tshiab yog "txhawb cov nqi sib npaug nce siab dua." Tab sis Demmert kuj tau ceeb toom tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem hloov pauv thoob plaws thawj peb lub hlis twg.
"Peb nyob rau theem kawg ntawm kev lag luam dais - uas qee zaum tuaj yeem yog theem mob siab tshaj plaws," nws hais. "Qhov no feem ntau yog theem thaum cov neeg ua haujlwm tau txais txiaj ntsig thiab kev taw qhia poob siab."
Demmert tau sib cav tias kev tsom mus rau cov tub ua lag luam tam sim no yuav yog ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab kev lag luam dais "yuav daws nws tus kheej lub quarter no." Nws yog ib qho kev pom zoo ntawm Wall Street tias lub lag luam dais tuaj yeem nyob ntawm nws ob txhais ceg kawg txawm tias poob nyiaj tau los ib feem (EPS). Tab sis Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj peev, ceeb toom lub lim tiam no hais txog lub peev xwm rau cov tuam txhab EPS kom poob qis hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg thiab ua rau 20% poob hauv cov khoom lag luam.
Demmert tau hais tias nws ntseeg tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum "tseem muaj kev tiv thaiv, tseem muaj sijhawm zoo."
"Nyob ntawm lub caij khwv tau nyiaj no, cov tub ua lag luam yuav muaj lub sijhawm zoo los yuav cov tuam txhab zoo ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog thaum lub quarter thiab cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm lub caij nyoog," nws hais.
Tab sis qee tus kws tshaj lij tau qhia kom ceev faj. Chris Zaccarelli, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Independent Advisor Alliance, hais rau Fortune tias vim lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev nce nqi tuaj nyob rau hauv "raws li kev kwv yees," qhov kev poob qis tuaj yeem tau txais kev cia siab los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam thiab cov nqi hauv kev lag luam.
"Ntau ntawm cov xov xwm no twb raug nqi nyob rau hauv," nws hais tias, sib cav hais tias cov lus nug tiag tiag rau cov tub ua lag luam yuav yog seb qhov nyiaj txiag poob tag nrho rov qab mus rau Fed lub hom phiaj 2%, lossis seb nws puas tau daig ntawm qib siab dua. Zaccarelli ntseeg tias ntau tus neeg koom nrog kev lag luam tau twv tias kev nce nyiaj yuav poob mus ntxiv rau lub sijhawm no, thiab kev lag luam yuav tsis poob rau hauv kev lag luam.
Nws tau hais tias "Dab tsi ua rau peb nyob rau hmo ntuj yog seb qhov txiaj ntsig tsis zoo yuav tshwm sim tom ntej," nws piav qhia tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem nyob siab dua 3% thiab kev poob qis dua tseem tuaj yeem ua tau.
Thiab Jason Pride, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Private Wealth ntawm Glenmede, hais Fortune hais tias qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam tseem "nce" thiab Fed yuav tsum tau ua kom lawv cov cai txwv tsis pub ua kom lawv tsis txhob rov ua yuam kev yav dhau los thiab "kev nce nqi nce ntxiv."
"Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau ceev faj tsis txhob overextrapolate cov txiaj ntsig no thiab yuav tsum npau taws rau lawv cov kev cia siab rau kev txiav nyiaj ntxov ntxov los ntawm Fed," nws ceeb toom. "Lub xyoo dhau los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tseem ceeb tseem nyob deb ntawm Fed lub hom phiaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm tus nqi, thiab xyoo 1970 muab cov ntaub ntawv hais txog qhov txaus ntshai ntawm kev thov yeej ntawm kev nce nqi ntxov dhau."
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
Air Is Nrias teb slammed rau 'kev ua tsis tiav' tom qab tus txiv neej tsis muaj zog cov neeg caij nkoj ya hauv chav ua lag luam tso zis rau tus poj niam taug kev los ntawm New York
Meghan Markle qhov kev txhaum tiag tiag uas cov pej xeem Askiv tsis tuaj yeem zam txim - thiab Asmeskas tsis tuaj yeem nkag siab
'Nws tsuas yog tsis ua haujlwm.' Lub ntiaj teb lub tsev noj mov zoo tshaj plaws tau raug kaw vim nws tus tswv hu cov qauv noj mov zoo niaj hnub 'tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg'
Bob Iger tsuas yog tso nws ko taw thiab hais kom Disney cov neeg ua haujlwm rov qab los rau hauv chaw ua haujlwm
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-very-favorable-inflation-read-175411383.html