Cov nuj nqis qab nthab, Cov paj laum, Tuam Tshoj, thiab Biden Trade

Nrog rau kev tswj hwm tus nqi thiab txo qis dua - ntxiv rau cov nqi xa khoom qis dua - cov khw muag khoom loj tau tswj kom lawv lub taub hau saum dej. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov tau hais tias, ob lub hlis tom ntej no tuaj yeem nthuav tawm zaj dab neeg ntawm kev txom nyem. Cov khw muag khoom tau qaug zog nrog "Supply Chain" yog cov ntsiab lus-du-jour thiab, raws li cov nruas phaus hauv xov xwm txog cov nuj nqis qab nthab thiab qhov ua tsis tau zoo, cov khw muag khoom txhawj xeeb rau lawv cov kev muag khoom yav tom ntej thiab cov paj. Tuam Tshoj cov neeg saib xyuas kuj txhawj xeeb txog kev nrhiav cov khoom tshiab, thiab lawv ntxhov siab txog lawv cov khoom muag - vim cov khoom muag raug nqi nyiaj thiab qiv tau dhau los ua kim heev. Cov khoom muag ntau dhau los yog tsawg dhau yuav ua rau lossis tawg lub caij.

Ob peb xyoos dhau los, lub ntsiab lus "Supply Chain" tau nthuav tawm tag nrho cov tes hauj lwm, ntau lub rooj sib tham, phau ntawv, ob peb TV qhia, thiab txawm tau tsim txoj hauj lwm ntawm Chief Supply Chain Officer. Cov lus xaiv tau nthuav dav tias ntau-hais lus tshaj tawm Biden Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) sai sai no yuav tshaj tawm qhov kev pom zoo ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov saw hlau - thiab qhov kawg ntawm qhov teeb meem yuav ua rau lub struts tiaj tus rau qhov xaus ntawm kev sib tham. Ntau tus xav tias IPEF cov ntawv cog lus yuav zoo, tab sis IPEF tsis mus deb txaus thiab zam qhov kev xav tau loj dua ntawm kev lag luam nkag mus rau kev lag luam. Nrog "Supply Chain" tam sim no zoo li tswj tau, kev sib tham sai sai rau qhov kev pab cuam tom qab kev ua si - ua chaw rau cov ncauj lus tshiab-du-jour uas yog: "Kev Tswj Xyuas Cov Khoom Muag" - tus kwv tij nyob deb ntawm ib tus ntawm Peter Navarro tus qub 7 tus neeg tuag hauv Suav teb. kev txhaum.

Hauv qhov chaw muag khoom tam sim no, "kev tswj xyuas cov khoom muag" yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev tsav lub khw muag khoom kom ua tiav lossis xaus rau kev hnav lub tuam txhab - zoo li tus dev tom qab caum. Tsim nyog "kev tswj cov khoom muag" tuaj yeem tsim cov txiaj ntsig lossis (yog tias tsis tuav zoo) tuaj yeem coj lub nkoj mus rau kev lag luam. Raws li tau sau tseg ntau zaus, cov neeg muag khoom keeb kwm hais txog cov lus nug los ntawm cov neeg ua yeeb yam yav dhau los uas tau sau cov lus zoo li: "Pack 'em siab thiab muag 'em qis, lossis Crazy Eddie - nws tus nqi yog vwm." Qhov sib xws yog tias kev tswj cov khoom muag tau txiav txim siab lawv cov tswv yim lag luam. Tam sim no, nyob rau hauv lub caij nyoog ntawm cov paj laum siab thiab nyiaj txiag tsis paub tseeb - kev txhawj xeeb txog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom muag tau nce mus txog qhov kawg. Kev ntxhov siab ntawm cov khoom lag luam yuav luag txhua hnub - tsuas yog vim tias Asmeskas cov nuj nqis qab nthab tuaj yeem ua txhaum cai, lossis cov paj laum siab yuav nyob twj ywm, lossis cov khoom muag ntawm Tuam Tshoj yuav tsum raug tshem tawm (ib nqe lus tsis ntev los no los ntawm tsoomfwv cov thawj coj). Cov lus nug hnyav raug nug los ntawm cov khw muag khoom txog qhov zoo tshaj plaws "Cov Khoom Muag" txoj hauv kev ua raws. Tsis muaj leej twg yeej paub cov lus teb thiab Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam looms loj heev ntawm txhua tus neeg cov lus nug cov txheej txheem.

Hauv cov hnub qub, koj tuaj yeem "Stack 'em siab thiab muag 'em qis" yog tias muaj cov khoom muag txaus los txo cov paj. Koj tuaj yeem tsim "tus nqi vwm" yog tias koj nqa cov khoom muag txaus los txo tus nqi. Niaj hnub no, kev kub ntxhov hauv khw muag khoom yog hais txog cov paj laum siab heev - thiab kev tswj xyuas cov khoom muag nruj tau dhau los ua qhov tsim nyog thiab kev foom phem.

Thaum cov khw muag khoom saib ntawm kev yuav khoom ntawm cov khoom muag - txhua lub qhov muag feem ntau yuav tig mus rau Tuam Tshoj, vim nws yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm ntshuam cov khoom ntws mus rau hauv lub tebchaws United States. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias xyoo 2022 Tuam Tshoj xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas tau tsoo $ 582 nphom lossis 16% ntawm tag nrho Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm thoob ntiaj teb.

Thaum lub sijhawm Trump tus thawj coj, nws yog tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam yav dhau los Peter Navarro uas tau hais txog kev txhawj xeeb txog Tuam Tshoj ua dej nyab hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam nrog tus nqi qis "cov khoom muag." Nws tau hu nws txoj cai "Tuam Tshoj 7 Qhov Kev Txhaum Tuag" hauv kev sim ua kom pom kev tshaj tawm txog qhov teeb meem. Lub 7 kev txhaum tau dhau los ua qhov kev ncaj ncees rau Trump era tariffs. Raws li Mr. Navarro daim ntawv teev kev txhaum: Tuam Tshoj yuav tsum tsum tsis txhob nyiag cov cuab yeej cuab tam, tsum tsis txhob yuam kev hloov khoom siv thev naus laus zis, nres hacking computers, nres lub xeev cov tuam txhab lag luam (SOE's), nres fentanyl, nres kev siv nyiaj txiag, thiab tsis txhob muab pov tseg cov khoom lag luam uas qis dua tus nqi lag luam ncaj ncees. ntawm lwm cov khoom lag luam.

Lub 7 kev txhaum tau txhawb nqa yav dhau los Thawj Tswj Hwm Trump txoj haujlwm kev lag luam hauv Tuam Tshoj, tab sis Tebchaws Asmeskas yeej tsis muaj kev tswj hwm ntau ntawm lawv. Tub sab tub nyiag ntawm Asmeskas cov cuab yeej cuab tam twb raug tso tseg los ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov tsev hais plaub, yuam kev hloov khoom siv thev naus laus zis muaj ntau yam ua rau Asmeskas cov tuam txhab xav ua lag luam hauv Suav teb thiab txaus siab koom nrog lawv cov thev naus laus zis (piv rau kev nkag mus rau kev lag luam). Lub xeev cov tuam txhab lag luam (SOE's) yog qhov nyuaj rau kev sib tw nrog - tab sis Tuam Tshoj taw qhia tias cov xeev Asmeskas (thiab tseem yog tsoomfwv) muab cov se so thiab nyiaj txiag los txhawb kev txhim kho kev lag luam. Tuam Tshoj txiaj manipulation kuj tau txiav txim los ntawm US Treasury Department.

Hauv kev rov qab los, qhov teeb meem loj dua ntawm Navarro's 7 kev txhaum yog hais txog cov khoom muag khoom pov tseg - uas yog tiag tiag thiab tsim ntau tshaj ntawm cov khoom lag luam ncaj ncees. Amelikas twb tau muaj txoj cai los daws qhov teeb meem no tab sis, hais txog nom tswv, ntau txoj cai tsis tau mus deb txaus kom muaj txiaj ntsig. Yuav kom ncaj ncees, thaum Trumpian tariffs tau ntxiv - tsis muaj dab tsi hloov tiag tiag tsuas yog rau kev hais lus nom tswv thiab kev taw qhia ntawm (ua tsis tiav) 2020 Tuam Tshoj Theem Ib Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo. Qhov teeb meem loj ntawm kev yuav khoom los ntawm Tuam Tshoj - yog tias tam sim no Democrats tau coj mus rau qhov twg Republicans tawm mus - ua raws tib txoj kev thiab xaws tib txoj kev mus rau kev lag luam tawm teb chaws. Cov kev xav ntawm Capitol Hill tam sim no khov kho rau Tuam Tshoj nrog kev daws teeb meem me me lossis muag muag pom.

Hauv kev hais lus zoo tshaj plaws hais txog qhov yuav tshwm sim Biden cov txheej txheem ntawm Brookings Institute thaum Lub Plaub Hlis 29, 2023 - Tus Kws Pab Tswv Yim Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg Hauv Tebchaws (NSA) Jake Sullivan tau tham txog kev coj noj coj ua tshiab rau kev tswj hwm raws li "txawv teb chaws txoj cai rau cov neeg nruab nrab."Nws hais lus tej zaum yuav ntshai ntau tus neeg muag khoom thiab cov thawj coj - raws li NSA Sullivan tau tham txog "tsiv tshaj li kev lag luam kev lag luam”thiab nug cov lus nug txog yuav ua li cas kev lag luam haum”rau hauv peb txoj cai kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, thiab cov teeb meem dab tsi (kev lag luam) tab tom nrhiav los daws?"

Saib ntawm Tuam Tshoj, NSA Sullivan kuj tau rov hais dua qhov uas tau dhau los ua lub hauv paus kev lag luam-nrog-Tuam Tshoj kab lus (los ntawm Ursula van der Layen - Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm European Commission): qhia tias kev cuam tshuam nrog Tuam Tshoj yog hais txog "de-risking thiab diversifying - tsis decoupling."

Raws li Peter Navarro 7 qhov kev txhaum tau nthuav tawm, cov khw muag khoom raug yuam kom ua tib zoo saib lawv tus kheej hauv Suav teb. Cov lus nug tshwm sim thaum cov kws tshuaj ntsuam nug cov tuam txhab los piav qhia feem pua ​​​​ntawm lawv qhov kev cia siab rau Tuam Tshoj. Yog tias qhov lus teb siab dhau ntawm ib feem pua, qhov ntawd sai sai ua teeb meem rau lub tuam txhab. Qhov tseeb, lub ntiaj teb cov khw muag khoom tseem tseem vam khom rau Tuam Tshoj, thiab thaum de-risking yog ib qho kev xaiv, decoupling tsis yog.

Nyob rau txhua hnub, cov khw muag khoom paub tias cov khoom muag tsuas yog lwm lub npe rau nyiaj. Yog tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom muag nce, cov khw muag khoom yuav tsum nce lawv cov nqi, thiab feem ntau ua rau kev muag khoom tsawg dua. Ntxiv rau, yog tias tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv credit kuj nce, thiab cov nuj nqis ntawm tus kheej nce, ces cov chav yuav tsawg dua - tawm hauv cov khw muag khoom nrog ntau cov khoom muag.

Cov kab hauv qab rau tag nrho cov no - yog tias qhov teeb meem ntawm cov nuj nqis tau nce siab txog kev paub txog tus nqi ntawm cov nyiaj thiab cov khoom muag. Ob leeg uas muaj cov paj laum siab thiab kev siv nyiaj qeeb qeeb thiab tag nrho cov no muaj peev xwm rau txoj hauv kev ncaj qha mus rau lub tsev hais plaub kev lag luam. Kev cia siab yog tias qee yam yuav hloov pauv, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom muag yuav poob qis, thiab qhov teeb meem ntawm lub qab nthab yuav raug daws. Txawm li cas los xij, cov khw muag khoom tseem yuav tsum tau thawb rov qab los ntawm kev pom kev lag luam tshiab los ntawm Biden Administration lossis, kom paub tseeb tias, yuav muaj qhov tsis muaj cov koom tes tshiab ntshuam - thiab qhov ib leeg tuaj yeem yog cov dej khov uas thaum kawg ua rau lub khw muag khoom lag luam nkoj.

Cov khw muag khoom yuav nco qab txog tus neeg ua lag luam zoo thiab tus nom tswv Ross Perot uas ib zaug hais tias:

"Cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem tswj hwm, tab sis tib neeg yuav tsum tau coj"