Tseem tsis muaj laj thawj txaus ntseeg kom ntseeg tau tias feem ntawm cov neeg tsav nkoj caij nkoj tau qis dua, raws li "trifecta ntawm kev txhawj xeeb" tseem nyob, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Deutsche Bank Chris Woronka tau hais.
Woronka rov hais dua qhov tuav pov hwm nws tau muaj nyob rau Carnival Corp.
CCL,
-0.31%
tsawg kawg yog peb lub xyoos dhau los, thiab kev tuav pov hwm nws tau muaj ntawm Royal Caribbean Group
RCL,
-0.72%
thiab Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCO,
+ 0.35%
txij li thaum tus kab mob kis thoob qhov muag tau ncaws tawm mus rau hauv cov iav siab thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2020.
"Txawm hais tias peb nkag siab tias lub nkoj nkoj perma-bulls pom cov nkoj thauj khoom muaj txiaj ntsig tau muag ntawm no, peb xav tias nws txawv qhov txawv rau txhua tus neeg kom muaj kev ntseeg siab tias qhov ua tau zoo hauv qab," Woronka tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Woronka tau txiav nws cov nqi npaj rau Carnival rau $ 14 los ntawm $ 24, rau Royal Caribbean rau $ 50 los ntawm $ 76 thiab rau Norwegian mus txog $ 17 los ntawm $ 23.
"'Peb cov lus qhia meej: Peb xav tias nws tseem ntxov dhau mus nuv ntses hauv qab ntawm cov nkoj nkoj.'"
- Chris Woronka, kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Deutsche Bank
Nws tau hais tias nws ib txwm ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam caij nkoj muaj ntau "qis" raws li kev lag luam tsheb los ntawm cov nyiaj tiv thaiv, thaum "ntev nkaus xwb" cov neeg ua lag luam txaus siab rau hauv kev lag luam tau tshwm sim "ntev" nyob rau lub sijhawm txuas ntxiv.
"Kev sib tham tsis ntev los no nrog cov neeg ua lag luam dav dav ua rau peb qhov kev xav tias tsis zoo li yuav muaj kev lag luam ruaj khov nyob rau lub sijhawm ze (cov ntsiab lus luv luv thiab kev lag luam cuam tshuam txog kev lag luam bounces txawm li cas los xij), tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov txheeb ze kev ua tau zoo ntawm lwm cov lag luam tseem ceeb thiab ib tus tswv tsev uas paub (nrog rau qee qhov tsis paub) muaj kev pheej hmoo nyob rau 6-rau-12 lub hlis tom ntej, "Woronka sau.
Carnival cov khoom lag luam tau hloov pauv me ntsis hauv nruab nrab kev lag luam, tshem tawm qhov nce ua ntej ntawm ntau npaum li 2%, thaum Royal Caribbean shares thim rov qab qhov nce hauv hnub ua ntej ntawm 1.9% rau poob 0.9%. Norwegian cov khoom lag luam tau nce 1.4% nruab nrab, tab sis tau nce 3.2% ua ntej.
Tag nrho peb cov khoom lag luam kaw hnub Thursday kawg ntawm tus nqi qis tshaj txij li thaum ntxov 2020. Carnival thiab Royal Caribbean shares tau poob kwv yees li 52% xyoo dhau los thiab Norwegian's tau poob txog 44%, thaum SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector exchange-trading fund.
XLY,
+ 2.86%
tau poob txog 32% thiab S&P 500 Performance index
SPX,
+ 2.45%
tau poob 21%.
Woronka tau hais tias tam sim no muaj "trifecta ntawm kev txhawj xeeb" ntawm cov nkoj nkoj:
- Cov nuj nqis yav tom ntej yuav loj tuaj nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig nce paj paj.
- Lub peev xwm rau kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, uas yog thawj zaug txwv rau Tebchaws Europe tab sis tam sim no suav nrog Asmeskas
- Ua siab tawv nce nqi roj uas hem ua rau tsis muaj peev xwm ua rau muaj peev xwm.
Woronka tau sau tseg tias peb tus neeg ua haujlwm caij nkoj muaj $ 8.5 nphom ntawm cov nuj nqis them rau xyoo tom ntej thiab $ 11.6 nphom hauv xyoo 2024. Txawm hais tias nws tsis cia siab tias cov tuam txhab yuav muab kev ncaj ncees ntawm tus nqi tam sim no los pab them cov nuj nqis, nws tsis xav tias Cov neeg ua lag luam kev txhawj xeeb yuav ploj mus tshwj tsis yog tias cov paj laum ruaj khov thiab qhov kev pom zoo rau 2023 cov nyiaj tau los ua kom pom tseeb.
Nws cia siab tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Wall Street yuav txo qis lawv cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees rau cov tuam txhab nkoj nkoj thiab xav tias yuav ua li cas cov tub lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig rau cov tuam txhab cov txiaj ntsig tau "ib nrab mus tas li" txo qis los ntawm kev ua haujlwm thiab peev nyiaj tiag tiag los ntawm COVID.
"Peb cov lus yog qhov tseeb: Peb xav tias nws tseem ntxov dhau mus rau hauv qab nuv ntses ntawm nkoj nkoj," Woronka sau.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-dont-look-at-all-like-theyve-bottomed-yet-analyst-says-11655828189?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Cruise stocks tsis saib txhua yam zoo li lawv tau qis dua, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hais
Tseem tsis muaj laj thawj txaus ntseeg kom ntseeg tau tias feem ntawm cov neeg tsav nkoj caij nkoj tau qis dua, raws li "trifecta ntawm kev txhawj xeeb" tseem nyob, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Deutsche Bank Chris Woronka tau hais.
Woronka rov hais dua qhov tuav pov hwm nws tau muaj nyob rau Carnival Corp.
-0.31%
-0.72%
+ 0.35%
CCL,
tsawg kawg yog peb lub xyoos dhau los, thiab kev tuav pov hwm nws tau muaj ntawm Royal Caribbean Group
RCL,
thiab Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCO,
txij li thaum tus kab mob kis thoob qhov muag tau ncaws tawm mus rau hauv cov iav siab thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2020.
"Txawm hais tias peb nkag siab tias lub nkoj nkoj perma-bulls pom cov nkoj thauj khoom muaj txiaj ntsig tau muag ntawm no, peb xav tias nws txawv qhov txawv rau txhua tus neeg kom muaj kev ntseeg siab tias qhov ua tau zoo hauv qab," Woronka tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Woronka tau txiav nws cov nqi npaj rau Carnival rau $ 14 los ntawm $ 24, rau Royal Caribbean rau $ 50 los ntawm $ 76 thiab rau Norwegian mus txog $ 17 los ntawm $ 23.
"'Peb cov lus qhia meej: Peb xav tias nws tseem ntxov dhau mus nuv ntses hauv qab ntawm cov nkoj nkoj.'"
- Chris Woronka, kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Deutsche Bank
Nws tau hais tias nws ib txwm ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam caij nkoj muaj ntau "qis" raws li kev lag luam tsheb los ntawm cov nyiaj tiv thaiv, thaum "ntev nkaus xwb" cov neeg ua lag luam txaus siab rau hauv kev lag luam tau tshwm sim "ntev" nyob rau lub sijhawm txuas ntxiv.
"Kev sib tham tsis ntev los no nrog cov neeg ua lag luam dav dav ua rau peb qhov kev xav tias tsis zoo li yuav muaj kev lag luam ruaj khov nyob rau lub sijhawm ze (cov ntsiab lus luv luv thiab kev lag luam cuam tshuam txog kev lag luam bounces txawm li cas los xij), tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov txheeb ze kev ua tau zoo ntawm lwm cov lag luam tseem ceeb thiab ib tus tswv tsev uas paub (nrog rau qee qhov tsis paub) muaj kev pheej hmoo nyob rau 6-rau-12 lub hlis tom ntej, "Woronka sau.
Carnival cov khoom lag luam tau hloov pauv me ntsis hauv nruab nrab kev lag luam, tshem tawm qhov nce ua ntej ntawm ntau npaum li 2%, thaum Royal Caribbean shares thim rov qab qhov nce hauv hnub ua ntej ntawm 1.9% rau poob 0.9%. Norwegian cov khoom lag luam tau nce 1.4% nruab nrab, tab sis tau nce 3.2% ua ntej.
Tag nrho peb cov khoom lag luam kaw hnub Thursday kawg ntawm tus nqi qis tshaj txij li thaum ntxov 2020. Carnival thiab Royal Caribbean shares tau poob kwv yees li 52% xyoo dhau los thiab Norwegian's tau poob txog 44%, thaum SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector exchange-trading fund.
+ 2.86%
+ 2.45%
XLY,
tau poob txog 32% thiab S&P 500 Performance index
SPX,
tau poob 21%.
Woronka tau hais tias tam sim no muaj "trifecta ntawm kev txhawj xeeb" ntawm cov nkoj nkoj:
Woronka tau sau tseg tias peb tus neeg ua haujlwm caij nkoj muaj $ 8.5 nphom ntawm cov nuj nqis them rau xyoo tom ntej thiab $ 11.6 nphom hauv xyoo 2024. Txawm hais tias nws tsis cia siab tias cov tuam txhab yuav muab kev ncaj ncees ntawm tus nqi tam sim no los pab them cov nuj nqis, nws tsis xav tias Cov neeg ua lag luam kev txhawj xeeb yuav ploj mus tshwj tsis yog tias cov paj laum ruaj khov thiab qhov kev pom zoo rau 2023 cov nyiaj tau los ua kom pom tseeb.
Nws cia siab tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Wall Street yuav txo qis lawv cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees rau cov tuam txhab nkoj nkoj thiab xav tias yuav ua li cas cov tub lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig rau cov tuam txhab cov txiaj ntsig tau "ib nrab mus tas li" txo qis los ntawm kev ua haujlwm thiab peev nyiaj tiag tiag los ntawm COVID.
"Peb cov lus yog qhov tseeb: Peb xav tias nws tseem ntxov dhau mus rau hauv qab nuv ntses ntawm nkoj nkoj," Woronka sau.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-dont-look-at-all-like-theyve-bottomed-yet-analyst-says-11655828189?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo