Tus chij Swiss ya hla ib qho kos npe ntawm Credit Suisse hauv Bern, Switzerland
FABRICE COFFRINI | AFP | Getty Dluab
credit Suisse Kev sib koom luv luv tau poob rau txhua lub sijhawm qis rau hnub Monday thaum qhov kev sib pauv hloov pauv tau ua rau muaj cov ntaub ntawv siab, vim tias kev ua lag luam skittishness txog Swiss bank lub neej yav tom ntej tau pom meej meej.
Shares txuas ntxiv rov qab rau hnub Tuesday los ntawm qhov kev sib tham dhau los qhov qis ntawm 3.60 Swiss francs ($ 3.64), tab sis tseem tseem poob ntau dua 53% ntawm lub xyoo.
Tus neeg qiv nyiaj embattled yog pib ntawm qhov kev tshuaj xyuas loj heev nyob rau hauv ib tug tshiab CEO tom qab ib txoj hlua ntawm scandals thiab kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo ua tsis tiav, thiab yuav muab qhov kev hloov kho tshiab nrog rau nws cov nyiaj tau los peb lub hlis twg rau Lub Kaum Hli 27.
Credit Suisse credit default swaps - derivatives uas ua hauj lwm raws li ib yam ntawm kev tuav pov hwm daim ntawv cog lus tiv thaiv ib lub tuam txhab defaulting ntawm nws cov nuj nqis - nce mus rau ib tug ntau tshaj li 300 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hnub Monday, zoo dua li ntawm tag nrho cov sector.
Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner lub lim tiam dhau los tau nrhiav kom rov hais dua cov neeg ua haujlwm ntawm Swiss lub txhab nyiaj "muaj peev xwm muaj peev xwm thiab muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm tau zoo" thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam thiab kev nce hauv credit-default swaps.
Hauv tsab ntawv sau tseg sab hauv xa mus rau cov neeg ua haujlwm lub lim tiam dhau los, Koerner tau cog lus rau lawv cov kev hloov tshiab tsis tu ncua thaum lub sijhawm "kev nyuaj siab" thiab hais tias Credit Suisse tau "khiav tau zoo" nrog nws cov kev tshuaj xyuas zoo.
"Kuv paub tias nws tsis yooj yim rau kev tsom mus rau ntau zaj dab neeg uas koj tau nyeem hauv xov xwm - tshwj xeeb, muab ntau cov lus tsis raug tseeb. Qhov ntawd tau hais tias, Kuv ntseeg tias koj tsis yog qhov tsis meej pem peb cov nqi lag luam niaj hnub ua haujlwm nrog lub peev txheej muaj zog thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub txhab nyiaj," Koerner tau hais.
Raws li Credit Suisse qhov tsis muaj zog rov qab los ntawm kev ncaj ncees profile piv rau nws cov peev nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv Tebchaws Europe, US peev kev tshawb fawb tuam txhab CFRA rau hnub Monday tau txo qis nws lub hom phiaj rau cov Tshuag rau 3.50 Swiss francs ($ 3.54) ib feem, nqis los ntawm 4.50 francs.
Qhov no qhia txog tus nqi-rau-phau ntawv piv ntawm 0.2x piv rau European peev nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm 0.44x, CFRA Equity Analyst Firdaus Ibrahim tau hais hauv tsab ntawv hnub Monday. CFRA kuj tau txo nws cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ib qho kev kwv yees rau -0.30 francs los ntawm -0.20 francs rau 2022, thiab mus rau 0.60 francs los ntawm 0.65 francs rau 2023.
Tus nqi-rau-phau ntawv piv ntsuas tus nqi lag luam ntawm ib lub tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam tawm tsam nws phau ntawv tus nqi ntawm kev ncaj ncees, thaum cov nyiaj tau los-ib-qib faib cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub tuam txhab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam zoo ntawm nws cov khoom lag luam.
“Muaj ntau cov kev xaiv rumored yuav raug txiav txim los ntawm CS, suav nrog kev tawm ntawm Asmeskas kev nqis peev hauv tuam txhab nyiaj, kev tsim 'lub txhab nyiaj phem' los tuav cov khoom muaj nqis pheej hmoo, thiab kev nce peev, qhia tias yuav tsum muaj kev hloov pauv loj los hloov lub txhab nyiaj, hauv peb qhov kev xav, "Ibrahim hais.
"Peb ntseeg hais tias qhov kev xav tsis zoo nyob ib puag ncig ntawm cov khoom lag luam yuav tsis txo qis txhua lub sijhawm sai sai thiab ntseeg tias nws cov nqi sib koom yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau hauv lub siab. Txoj kev npaj kho dua tshiab yuav pab tau, tab sis peb tseem tsis ntseeg, muab nws cov ntaub ntawv tsis zoo ntawm kev xa tawm cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho yav dhau los. "
Txawm hais tias kev lag luam dav dav tsis zoo rau nws cov Tshuag, Credit Suisse tsuas yog yim-feem ntau luv luv European bank, nrog 2.42% ntawm nws cov floated shares siv los thawj koom ruam tawm tsam nws hnub Monday, raws li cov ntaub ntawv txheeb xyuas lub tuam txhab S3 Partners.
'Tseem muaj nuj nqis ntau' hauv Credit Suisse
Tag nrho peb lub tuam txhab kev ntsuam xyuas nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb - Moody's, S&P thiab Fitch - tam sim no muaj qhov tsis zoo ntawm Credit Suisse, thiab Johann Scholtz, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam kev ncaj ncees ntawm DBRS Morningstar, hais rau CNBC hnub Tuesday tias qhov no yuav ua rau muaj kev sib kis ntawm CDS.
Nws tau sau tseg tias Credit Suisse yog "lub txhab nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo" thiab qhov peev txheej yog "qhov phem tshaj plaws nrog cov phooj ywg," tab sis qhov xwm txheej tseem ceeb yuav yog qhov xwm txheej zoo ib yam li cov tsev txhab nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo thaum xyoo 2008 nyiaj txiag teeb meem, qhov twg. cov neeg siv khoom tsis txaus siab los cuam tshuam nrog cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag vim kev ntshai ntawm qhov cuam tshuam domino thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus neeg sib tw.
"Lub tsev txhab nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws tau nthuav tawm ntau ntxiv rau kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau cov neeg muab kev pabcuam nyiaj txiag, thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov kev sib tw rau Credit Suisse rau cov xov uas ilv txoj kev ntawm kev hais txog kev txaus siab ntawm cov neeg muab kev pabcuam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, cov nyiaj muag khoom muag, thiab tom qab ntawd kuj. cov kev txaus siab ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam sib npaug, "Scholtz hais.
"Kuv xav tias ntau tus tub ua lag luam yuav hais txog vim li cas lub txhab nyiaj yuav tsum tau nce peev yog tias tsis muaj kev txhawj xeeb? Tab sis nws yog tiag tiag los daws qhov kev xav tsis zoo thiab qhov teeb meem ntau heev ... hais txog kev nkag siab ntawm cov neeg koom tes. "
Scholtz tso tseg lub tswv yim tias a "Lub sijhawm Lehman" tuaj yeem nyob ntawm lub qab ntug rau Credit Suisse, taw qhia rau qhov tseeb tias kev lag luam paub tias muaj "cov teeb meem loj" nrog Lehman Brothers daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas nyob rau hauv kev nce mus rau 2008 ntsoog, thiab xav tau "cov ntaub ntawv loj".
"Txawm hais tias muaj peev xwm rau cov ntawv sau tshiab tau tshaj tawm los ntawm Credit Suisse thaum kawg ntawm lub hlis thaum lawv tab tom los nrog cov txiaj ntsig, tsis muaj ib yam dab tsi uas tau tshaj tawm rau lub sijhawm tam sim no uas qhia tau tias cov ntawv sau no yuav txaus los ua kom muaj teeb meem daws teeb meem. rau Credit Suisse, "Scholtz hais.
"Lwm yam uas txawv ntau dua piv rau Great Financial Crisis - thiab qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov xwm txheej nkaus xwb rau Credit Suisse - yog tias tsis yog lawv cov peev txheej peev ntau dua, koj kuj tau pom qhov kev kho dua tshiab ntawm cov qauv ntawm banking peev, ib yam dab tsi zoo li yuav-tsis muaj nuj nqis uas tuaj nrog, kuj txhim kho qhov kev cia siab rau kev daws teeb meem ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj. "
Lub txhab nyiaj tus nqi tau nqis los ntau dua 73% nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos dhau los, thiab qhov kev poob siab zoo li no tau ua rau muaj kev xav txog kev lag luam txog kev sib koom ua ke, thaum qee qhov kev lag luam sib tham ua ntej Lub Kaum Hli 27 tshaj tawm tau tsom mus rau qhov muaj peev xwm hiving tawm. ntawm cov teeb meem kev nqis peev hauv tuam txhab lag luam thiab kev lag luam peev kev lag luam.
Txawm li cas los xij, nws tau sib cav tias muaj "tseem muaj txiaj ntsig" hauv Credit Suisse hais txog cov lej ntawm nws qhov chaw.
"Nws txoj kev tswj hwm kev lag luam tseem yog kev lag luam tsim nyog, thiab yog tias koj saib ntawm ntau qhov sib txawv uas nws cov phooj ywg - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov neeg tswj hwm kev nplua nuj nyob ib leeg - kev lag luam ntawm, ces koj tuaj yeem ua qhov teeb meem muaj zog rau qee qhov sib sib zog nqus ntawm lub npe," nws ntxiv.
Scholtz tau tso tseg txoj kev xav ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm Credit Suisse nrog cov neeg sib tw hauv tsev UBS nyob rau hauv lub hauv paus uas Swiss regulator yuav tsis zoo li yuav pom nws ntsuab, thiab tseem hais tias ib tug muag ntawm lub peev bank yuav nyuaj rau rub tawm.
"Qhov kev sib tw yog tias nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig tam sim no, koj tsis xav ua tus muag khoom yog tias koj yog Credit Suisse. Kev ua lag luam paub tias koj tab tom raug kev nyuaj siab, yog li sim thiab muag kev lag luam hauv tuam txhab lag luam hauv qhov xwm txheej tam sim no yuav nyuaj heev, "nws hais.
"Lwm yam yog tias thaum nws tuaj yeem hais txog kev txhawj xeeb txog kev pheej hmoo, nws tsis zoo li lawv yuav muag qhov kev lag luam no rau ib yam dab tsi ze rau cov txiaj ntsig, yog li koj yuav tsis nce peev los ntawm kev pov tseg ntawm kev lag luam no."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/credit-suisse-to-remain-under-pressure-but-analysts-wary-of-lehman-comparison.html