CPI, PPI, FOMC, thiab lwm yam uas cov tub lag luam yuav tsum paub txog

Ntsiab Cai

• Qhov kev txiav txim siab los nce lossis txo tus nqi yog los ntawm ntau yam kev tshaj tawm kev lag luam, ntau lub sijhawm yuav tsum tau tshaj tawm lub lim tiam no.
• Daim ntawv tshaj tawm CPI txhua hli tuaj kub dua li qhov xav tau, thawb kev lag luam poob qis vim tias hawkish Fed feem ntau yuav nce nqi paj ntxiv.
• Cov neeg ua lag luam yuav tsum tau saib xyuas cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm thiab cov neeg siv khoom xav tau qhov ntsuas pom ntxiv txog qhov Fed yuav ua li cas rau lub lim tiam tom ntej.

Kev nce nqi thiab cov paj laum yog cov ntsiab lus kub tam sim no. Thaum koj qhib rau hauv xov xwm, koj hnov ​​​​cov neeg sib tham txog cov ntsiab lus no, nrog rau Consumer Price Index, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, treasury yields, stock market, thiab ntau dua. Peb feem ntau muaj ib kev nkag siab ruaj khov ntawm kev nce nqi tab sis tsis yog ntau npaum li cas Federal Reserve txiav txim siab hloov cov paj laum.

Lawv tsuas siv ib daim ntawv qhia xwb? Lawv puas saib lub khw muag khoom? Yuav kom nkag siab tias Fed ncav cuag nws cov kev txiav txim siab li cas, peb yuav tsum tau saib ntau yam ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag uas nws siv los ua qhov chaw. Los ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas ntau daim ntawv tshaj tawm, Fed tuaj yeem nkag siab zoo dua qhov kev lag luam tam sim no thiab qhov twg nws yuav mus. Raws li qhov no, lawv txiav txim siab yuav ua li cas nrog cov paj laum.

Hmoov zoo, lub lim tiam no muaj ntau cov ntaub ntawv uas tau teem tseg uas yuav cuam tshuam rau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txiav txim siab ntawm nws lub rooj sib tham qhib tom ntej rau lub Cuaj Hlis 20-21. Cia peb nkag siab zoo dua ntawm cov ntaub ntawv no.

Tus Nqi Khoom Siv Tus Nqi (CPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) ntsuas qhov nce nqi ntawm lub hli dhau los. Tsis ntev los no, tsab ntawv ceeb toom no tau nce siab dua, txawm hais tias tag nrho cov lej tau poob rau lub Yim Hli. Yog tias koj saib cov ntawv xov xwm, koj yuav xav tias Fed yog tswj hwm kev nce nqi. Tab sis khawb tob rau hauv cov lej, koj pom tias qhov txo qis ntawm cov nqi roj tau txaus los cuam tshuam qhov kev nce ntxiv hauv cov nqi khoom noj thiab nqi tsev.

Vim tias muaj coob tus neeg tsuas yog saib cov xov xwm, lub khw lag luam pib nce siab dua. Tab sis Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau rov hais dua tias kev nce nqi tseem tsis tau tswj xyuas thaum Lub Yim Hli 26, 2022. Lub khw lag luam poob qis 7% nyob rau hnub tom qab cov lus pom no.

Lub caij nplooj zeeg tau luv luv vim tias kev ua lag luam tau nce siab dua tom qab Hnub Ua Haujlwm Hnub so. Qhov ntawd yog kom txog thaum CPI tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau tshaj tawm hnub no. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias tus lej xov tooj yuav tsis zoo 0.1% thiab tus lej tseem ceeb 0.3%. Tus lej xov tooj tseeb tau nce 0.1%, thiab tus lej tseem ceeb tau nce los ntawm 0.6%.

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom yog eerily zoo ib yam li tsab ntawv ceeb toom dhau los. Cov nqi roj poob thaum khoom noj thiab nqi xauj tsev nce. Lub sijhawm no, zaub mov thiab nqi xauj tsev tau nce txaus kom nce tus naj npawb xov tooj, qhov uas lawv tsis nyob hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm dhau los.

Vim tias cov lej no, kev lag luam poob qis 3% raws li lub sijhawm kuv sau qhov no. Txhua tus neeg saib yav dhau los cov xov xwm paub txog kev nce nqi tseem tsis tau tswj hwm, thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nyob twj ywm nruj nrog nce paj paj. Hmoov tsis zoo, ntau tus neeg xaiv tsis quav ntsej cov lej hauv qab hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub Yim Hli.

Small Business Optimism Index

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog kev ua lag luam me me zoo siab tshaj tawm kuj tau tshaj tawm hnub no los ntawm National Federation of Independent Business. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no yog ib daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas ntawm cov lag luam me, tso tawm txhua hli txij li xyoo 1986. Nws muab kev pom zoo rau lub xeev tam sim no ntawm cov lag luam me thiab cov tswv lag luam me pom hauv lawv lub neej yav tom ntej.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias qhov ntsuas tau nce mus rau 91.8 thaum Lub Yim Hli, uas yeej qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam. Qhov kev nce no yog nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog CPI yav dhau los daim ntawv tshaj tawm uas pom tias kev nce nqi nce ntxiv, ua tsaug rau cov nqi qis dua.

Thaum qhov ntsuas tau nce, nws tseem muaj keeb kwm qis vim muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi thiab qhov nyuaj ntawm kev nrhiav neeg ua haujlwm.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no yog qhov tseem ceeb los tshuaj xyuas vim tias cov lag luam me ua rau feem ntau ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam.

Tus Nqi Txhawb Nqa Tus Nqi (PPI)

Tus tsim cov nqi index yog ib daim ntawv qhia kev nce nqi uas saib cov nqi ntawm cov lag luam wholesale. Nws qhia tau hais tias kev nce nqi cuam tshuam li cas rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom los ntawm cov neeg ua khoom. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no yuav tawm rau hnub Wednesday, Cuaj Hlis 14, 2022.

Hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm PPI tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Yim Hli, uas tshuaj xyuas lub hli ntawm Lub Xya Hli, cov nqi poob qis 0.5%, thawj zaug tau muaj kev txo qis txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2020. Feem ntau ntawm lub caij nplooj zeeg yog los ntawm qhov poob ntawm cov nqi roj. Yog tias koj tshem tawm cov khoom noj, lub zog, thiab kev pabcuam kev lag luam, qhov ntsuas tau nce 0.2% rau Lub Xya Hli.

Tsis Muaj Haujlwm Txais Nyiaj

Cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm, ob qho tib si pib thiab txuas ntxiv, yuav tshaj tawm rau hnub Thursday, Cuaj Hlis 15, 2022. Qhov no yuav yog ib daim ntawv tshaj tawm uas xav tau ntau heev vim muaj cov cim qhia ntawm kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. Txawm hais tias tau muaj kev puas tsuaj rau kev noj qab haus huv ntawm tag nrho Asmeskas kev lag luam, pom hauv kev thim rov qab hauv tsev pib, kev nce nqi siab, thiab kev hloov pauv hloov pauv, cov lag luam tseem ntiav.

Nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom tsis muaj haujlwm tsis ntev los no, cov lus thov tau hloov kho raws caij nyoog 232,000, tsuas yog 5,000 tsawg dua lub hli dhau los.

Ntev npaum li qhov kev xav no txuas ntxiv mus, kev lag luam, hauv txoj kev xav, tuaj yeem tuav lossis ncua kev lag luam. Nrog ntau tus neeg ua haujlwm thiab khwv tau nyiaj, lawv tuaj yeem siv nyiaj thiab ua kom kev lag luam loj hlob tuaj.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txhua hli no yog los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Bank of New York thiab muab kev pom zoo rau cov xwm txheej ntawm kev tsim khoom lag luam hauv xeev New York. Thaum daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas tsuas yog npog ib lub xeev, nws ua rau pom lub teb chaws tsim duab.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no tau teem rau hnub Thursday, Cuaj Hlis 15, 2022. Qhov kev hloov tshiab tsis ntev los no tau tsis zoo, nrog rau lub Yim Hli tsab ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm qhov tsis zoo 31.3. Txhua yam hauv qab xoom yog suav tias yog qhov kev xav tsis zoo.

Cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom muag

Cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom muag kuj tseem tawm rau hnub Thursday, Cuaj Hlis 15, 2022. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm no qhia txog cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom los ntawm 13 kev lag luam, suav nrog kev muag tsheb, kev muag khoom noj, khoom muag, thiab lwm yam. Economists siv daim ntawv qhia no los saib seb cov neeg siv khoom siv nyiaj li cas. Yog tias cov neeg siv khoom tsis siv nyiaj, qhov no tuaj yeem kwv yees kev lag luam qeeb. Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem taw qhia rau cov neeg siv khoom qis dua.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Xya Hli tuaj txog ntawm 0%, nrog rau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias yuav nce 0.1%. Tag nrho cov qauv tau qis dua hauv peb daim ntawv tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no, yog li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tsis xav tias yuav muaj kev hloov pauv hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom yav tom ntej.

Consumer Sentiment Index

Consumer Sentiment Index yog ib qho kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov neeg siv khoom uas qhia txog kev xav txog kev lag luam kev noj qab haus huv. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm yog ua txhua hli los ntawm University of Michigan thiab tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday, Cuaj Hlis 16, 2022.

Qhov kev tshawb pom yog qhov tseem ceeb vim tias yog tias cov neeg siv khoom xav tsis zoo txog kev lag luam ze ze, lawv yuav tsis tshua siv nyiaj, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov khoom loj xws li tsheb thiab vaj tsev. Qhov thim rov qab kuj muaj tseeb. Kev siv nyiaj ntau tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev pom zoo, ua kom kev lag luam loj hlob.

Tam sim no, qhov ntsuas yog 51.5, uas yog qhov thib ob qhov kev nyeem qis tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1980. Rau kev siv, kev nyeem ntawv nyob rau nruab nrab mus rau sab saud 90s tshwm sim thaum kev lag luam ua tau zoo.

Daim Ntawv Qhia Vaj Tsev

Cov ntawv ceeb toom vaj tse tsis tau tshaj tawm rau lub lim tiam no tab sis hnub Monday, Cuaj Hlis 19, 2022. Qhov no tseem yuav yog ib daim ntawv qhia tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib vim tias tsev nyob pib tsis muaj zog tsis ntev los no. Nrog tsev nyob ua ib feem loj ntawm kev lag luam, kev lag luam hauv vaj tse yuav qeeb qeeb.

Piv txwv li, cov neeg tsim vaj tsev yuav rub rov qab los tsim tsev tshiab thiab tso cov neeg ua haujlwm ntau dua. Qhov no yuav cuam tshuam rau daim ntawv ceeb toom tsis muaj haujlwm ua haujlwm. Tsis tas li ntawd, tsis muaj haujlwm, tib neeg yuav rov qab los ntawm kev siv nyiaj, thawb peb los ze zog rau kev lag luam. Thaum kawg, kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tuaj yeem raug kev txom nyem, ib yam nkaus, vim tias tsis muaj haujlwm, tib neeg yuav muaj kev xav tsis zoo nyob rau lub sijhawm ze.

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Lub Rooj Sib Tham (FOMC)

Lub rooj sib tham FOMC tom ntej yog teem rau lub Cuaj Hlis 20-21, thiab kev ntseeg yog tias Fed yuav nce cov paj laum dua. Tus nqi ntawm qhov nce yog nyob rau hauv nqe lus nug. Feem ntau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav kom nce ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus. Cov uas xav tau tsawg dua tam sim no yuav xav lwm yam nrog qhov kub tshaj qhov kev cia siab CPI tsab ntawv ceeb toom nyuam qhuav tso tawm.

Txawm li cas los xij, muaj cov ntaub ntawv ntxiv tuaj, thiab raws li kuv tau hais, Fed yuav txiav txim siab tag nrho nws thaum txiav txim siab.

kab hauv qab

Cov ntawv ceeb toom kev lag luam tso tawm yuav cuam tshuam rau yav tom ntej ntawm cov paj laum. Lawv kuj tuaj yeem pab National Bureau of Economic Research txiav txim siab seb kev lag luam puas nyob hauv kev lag luam poob lossis tsis yog.

Raws li tus neeg siv khoom thiab tus neeg ua lag luam, koj yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv no. Txawm hais tias koj tsis tas yuav kawm lawv qhov tob, koj yuav tsum tau saib dhau lub ntsiab lus kom tau txais kev nkag siab tiav. Feem ntau tsuas yog xaiv cov lej los ntawm cov ntawv tshaj tawm no yuav raug rub los ua cov xov xwm, thiab cov lej no tsis qhia tag nrho zaj dab neeg.

Qhov tshwm sim ntawm lub Yim Hli tso tawm yog kev lag luam muaj kev ntseeg siab heev uas tsis nkag siab tias kev nce nqi tseem nyob ntawm no thiab tsis qeeb. Los ntawm kev saib xyuas, peb tuaj yeem muaj txhua tus kwv yees qhov kev sib tw tsis ntev los no yuav luv luv thiab zam tsis txhob ua dab tsi ua pob.

Rau peb cov uas xav nqis peev tab sis tsis muaj sijhawm los taug qab txhua yam ntawm kev ua lag luam, tshawb xyuas Q.ai. Peb cov kev txawj ntse txawj ntse scours kev lag luam rau kev nqis peev zoo tshaj plaws rau txhua yam kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai thiab kev lag luam. Tom qab ntawd, nws bundles lawv nyob rau hauv ke Cov khoom siv nqis peev uas ua rau kev nqis peev yooj yim thiab - twv peb hais nws - lom zem.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws, koj tuaj yeem qhib Kev Tiv Thaiv Portfolio txhua lub sijhawm los tiv thaiv koj cov txiaj ntsig thiab txo koj cov kev poob, txawm tias koj nqis peev hauv kev lag luam dab tsi.

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