CPI hnub tau dhau los ua qhov tsis sib haum xeeb tshaj plaws rau cov khoom lag luam xyoo no. Nov yog yam uas yuav xav tau ua ntej hnub Tuesday tsab ntawv ceeb toom

Cov ntaub ntawv CPI tsis yog tib qho kev ua lag luam uas muaj peev xwm hloov mus rau lub lim tiam no - deb ntawm nws: Hnub Wednesday yav tav su, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tsum tau nce nws cov txiaj ntsig kev cai los ntawm 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus. Tom qab qhov kev txiav txim siab ntawm cov paj laum raug tso tawm, Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell yuav piav qhia txog Fed cov kev xav hauv nqe lus thiab nug cov lus nug los ntawm cov neeg sau xov xwm, uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev lag luam.

Fed tseem yuav tshaj tawm cov kev kwv yees kev lag luam tshiab, suav nrog nws "dot plot" ntawm kev kwv yees rau kev hloov pauv hauv Fed cov nyiaj tau los.

Saib: 5 yam uas yuav tsum tau saib thaum Fed txiav txim siab tus nqi paj

Tshaj li Fed, muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm lwm lub rooj sib tham hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau teeb tsa rau lub lim tiam no, suav nrog European Central Bank thiab Swiss National Bank. Ntau tus nqi nce siab yuav tsum muaj, ib yam nkaus.

Nrog kev cia siab rau 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus txav los ntawm Fed twb tau ci rau hauv kev lag luam, cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam pom CPI daim ntawv tshaj tawm raws li daim npav qus - tshwj tsis yog tias Fed tawg nrog ua ntej thiab nce cov paj laum ntau dua (lossis tsawg dua) tshaj li 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus uas Powell hinted thaum lub sij hawm hais lus ntawm Brookings Institution tsuas yog ua ntej pib ntawm Fed lub premeeting blackout lub sij hawm.

Inflation yog kev lag luam tseem ceeb txhawj xeeb

Kev nce nqi tau dhau los ua kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv lub xyoo no, thiab vim li ntawd, CPI cov ntaub ntawv txhua hli tau hloov pauv lwm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam nrov, xws li Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm txhua hli, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam.

Kev lag luam txav ntawm CPI hnub tau nthuav dav tshwj xeeb rau xyoo no. Twb tau, S&P 500 tau sau ob qho tag nrho nws qhov kev nce qib loj tshaj plaws txhua hnub, thiab nws qhov kev poob loj tshaj plaws txhua hnub, rau xyoo tam sim no, nyob rau hnub uas cov ntaub ntawv CPI txhua hli raug tso tawm.

Thaum lub Kaum Hlis CPI cov ntaub ntawv tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 10, S&P 500 tau sib sau ua ke ntau dua 5.5%, nws qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws nyob rau ib hnub kom txog rau thaum lub xyoo no, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv.

Hloov pauv, thaum lub Yim Hli txhua hli cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi nce nyiaj tau nce siab dua li qhov xav tau rau lub Cuaj Hlis 13, S&P 500 poob qis 4.3%, nws qhov kev poob loj tshaj plaws txhua hnub kom deb li deb xyoo no.

Saib: Kev lag luam Tshuag tom qab-CPI swb ua raws li keeb kwm tsis ntev los no

Zuag qhia tag nrho, CPI cov lus ceeb toom tau nyiam thawb cov khoom lag luam qis dua, vim tias cov tub ua lag luam tau hnov ​​​​txog qhov tseeb tias tus nqi siab tau nrawm nrawm tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj plaub xyoo caum. S&P 500 tau ua tiav qis dua rau xya ntawm 11 CPI hnub tso tawm txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv hais hauv qab no qhia.

Intraday volatility nyob rau hauv teb rau CPI cov ntaub ntawv tau dhau los tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis tus lej raug tso tawm rau Lub Kaum Hli 13, cov khoom lag luam tau ua ib qho loj heev intraday viav vias, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab tau nce ze li ntawm 1,500 cov ntsiab lus los ntawm lub ncov mus rau trough, yog ib qho loj tshaj plaws intraday swings rau xiav-chip nruab nrab hauv nco tsis ntev los no, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.

Cov neeg ua lag luam muaj laj thawj txhawj xeeb

Cov tub ua lag luam muaj laj thawj rau kev ntxhov siab mus rau hnub Tuesday tsab ntawv ceeb toom. Lub lim tiam dhau los, cov khoom lag luam muag tawm tom qab hnub Friday tus tsim khoom-tus nqi ntsuas pom tau tias kev lag luam wholesale tus nqi loj hlob qeeb los ntawm tsawg dua qhov xav tau hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis. Qhov kev cia siab no tau sib tw tias qhov kev nce nyiaj txias tuaj yeem tso cai rau Fed txo cov paj laum dua tej zaum sai li sai tau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau hais.

"Wall Street tau xaus rau hnub Friday lub rooj sib tham nyob rau hauv liab raws li qhov kev poob qis me dua li qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam tau rov qab muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev nce nqi ntxiv, thiab yog li cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua rau ntev dua," Charalampos Pissouros, tus kws ntsuam xyuas kev nqis peev loj ntawm XM, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom. thiab cov neeg sau xov xwm.

"Cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam tuaj yeem txo qis lawv qhov kev pheej hmoo kis tus nqi hauv cov neeg siv khoom paub meej tias daim duab pleev xim los ntawm PPI indices," Pissouros ntxiv.

Raws li kev kwv yees nruab nrab suav sau los ntawm The Wall Street Journal, cov kws lag luam xav tias cov xov xwm CPI qhia tau tias nce 7.3% hauv 12 lub hlis txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis. Qhov ntawd yog qis dua li 7.8% sau tseg thaum lub hli dhau los.

Nyob rau lub hli dhau ib hlis, cov kws tshawb fawb xav tias yuav nce 0.2% hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, piv nrog qhov nce ntawm 0.4% thaum Lub Kaum Hli.

Thaum Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam pauv siab dua rau hnub Monday, qhov txawv txav tau tshwm sim: CBOE Volatility Index, tseem hu ua Wall Street's "kev ntshai ntsuas," tau sawv. Lub VIX
VIX,
+ 9.51%
yog raws li kev txav mus los hauv cov kev xaiv khi rau S&P 500, thiab nws feem ntau poob thaum cov khoom lag luam nce siab los cuam tshuam tias kev lag luam cia siab tias yuav tsis muaj kev hloov pauv hauv lub lis piam tom ntej.

VIX siab dua tuaj yeem txhais tau tias cov tub lag luam xaiv tau ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntau dua rau lub lim tiam tom ntej - lub sijhawm ntawm lub xyoo uas feem ntau pom cov khoom lag luam poob qis raws li cov khoom lag luam poob qis thaum lub caij so, cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau hais.

Hauv kev lag luam tsis ntev los no, S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.43%
tau nce 18 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 0.5%, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 1.58%
pauv 274 ntsiab lus, lossis 0.8% siab dua; Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+ 1.26%
tau nce 31 ntsiab lus, lossis 0.3%.