Tsis meej pem txog kev lag luam vaj tsev? Nov yog qhov tshwm sim

Kev qeeb qeeb hauv lwm qhov liab-kub vaj tsev boom tau nrawm nrawm heev.

Kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv Asmeskas tau nce siab thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb raws li cov neeg nyob hauv tsev nrhiav chaw tshiab nyob, txhawb nqa los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv-cov paj laum qis.

Tam sim no, cov neeg sawv cev ntawm vaj tse uas ib zaug tau tshaj tawm cov kab ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom sab nraum lub tsev qhib thiab sib tw ua tsov rog ntawm lub lawj tom qab hais tias cov tsev tau zaum ntev dua thiab cov neeg muag khoom raug yuam kom txo qis qhov pom.

Qhov ntawd muaj ob qho tib si cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom xav tsis thoob tias lawv nyob qhov twg.

"Raws li kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam poob qis rau cov neeg siv khoom xav tau, peb qhov kev tshawb fawb qhia tias qhov tsis paub tseeb tau ua rau hauv lub siab ntawm ntau tus neeg yuav khoom," said Danielle Hale, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Realtor.com.

Ntawm no yog cov yam tseem ceeb tom qab lub khw muag khoom vaj tsev nyob.

Lub ntsiab tsav tsheb ntawm kev qeeb qeeb yog nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj. Qhov nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm 30-xyoo lub tsev qiv nyiaj, uas yog nyob deb ntawm cov khoom nrov tshaj plaws niaj hnub no, suav txog ntau dua 90% ntawm txhua daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj, pib xyoo no nyob ib puag ncig 3%. Tam sim no nws tsuas yog siab dua 6%, raws li Mortgage News Daily.

Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias ib tus neeg yuav tsev $ 400,000 yuav tau them txhua hli txog $ 700 tam sim no siab dua li qhov nws yuav muaj nyob rau lub Ib Hlis.

Lwm cov neeg tsav tsheb ntawm kev qeeb qeeb yog cov nqi siab thiab cov khoom siv qis.

Cov nqi tam sim no yog 43% siab dua li lawv tau pib thaum muaj tus kabmob coronavirus, raws li S&P Case-Shiller lub teb chaws tus nqi ntsuas tsev. Kev xa khoom ntawm tsev rau kev muag khoom tau loj hlob, nce 27% thaum pib lub Cuaj Hli piv nrog tib lub sijhawm ib xyoos dhau los, raws li Realtor.com. Txawm hais tias qhov kev sib piv zoo li loj, nws tseem tsis txaus los cuam tshuam lub xyoo tsis txaus ntawm cov tsev muag khoom.

Cov khoom lag luam nquag tseem yog 43% qis dua li nws tau nyob hauv 2019. Cov npe tshiab kuj tseem poob qis 6% thaum kawg lub Cuaj Hli, txhais tau tias tam sim no cov neeg muag khoom muaj kev txhawj xeeb vim lawv pom ntau lub tsev zaum hauv khw ntev dua.

Paul Legere yog tus neeg yuav khoom nrog Joel Nelson Group hauv Washington, DC Nws tsom mus rau kev sib tw Capitol Hill cov zej zog, thiab nws hais tias nws pom cov npe dhia los ntawm 20 txog 171 tom qab Hnub Ua Haujlwm. Tam sim no nws hu ua lag luam "bloated." Raws li kev sib piv, tsuas yog 65 lub tsev tau sau npe muag rau lub Peb Hlis.

Nws tau hais tias "Qhov no yog ib txwm muaj kev tshaj tawm hnub Labor Day cov khoom lag luam thiab pom hauv ib lub lis piam lossis yog li cas kev lag luam nqus cov khoom muag tshiab yuav qhia tau zoo," nws hais. "Ntau heev."

Cov khoom muag tau raug ntaus thoob tebchaws vim tias cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev tau qeeb ntau lawm vim tias tsawg dua cov neeg yuav khoom ncig xyuas lawv cov qauv. Cov tsev nyob pib rau tsev neeg ib leeg poob 18.5% thaum Lub Xya Hli piv nrog Lub Xya Hli 2021, raws li US Census.

Homebuilder sentiment nyob rau hauv ib tsev neeg ua lag luam poob rau hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo nyob rau lub Yim Hli thawj zaug txij li lub sijhawm luv luv thaum pib muaj kev sib kis, raws li National Association of Home Builders. Cov neeg tsim khoom tau tshaj tawm kev muag khoom qis dua thiab cov neeg yuav khoom tsis muaj zog.

"Txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag nruj dua los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab cov nqi tsim kho tsis tu ncua tau ua rau muaj kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob," said NAHB Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Robert Dietz hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub Yim Hli.

Cov neeg yuav khoom, txawm li cas los xij, tsis tau ploj mus tag nrho, txawm tias tseem muaj nqi muag khoom lag luam thiab cov khw muag khoom kim heev.

"Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias qee cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tab tom nrhiav nyiaj hauv cov ntaub hauv cov kev sib tw txias kom nce tus naj npawb ntawm kev muag khoom hauv tsev," said Realtor.com's Hale. "Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov neeg yuav khoom uas tau txais tswv yim, xws li los ntawm kev tshawb nrhiav cov lag luam me, lub caij nplooj zeeg no tuaj yeem ua rau muaj feem zoo dua los nrhiav tsev nyob hauv pob nyiaj siv."

Cov nqi tsev thaum kawg pib txias. Lawv poob 0.77% txij lub Rau Hli mus txog Lub Xya Hli, thawj lub hlis poob hauv ze li peb xyoos, raws li Black Knight, lub tuam txhab qiv nyiaj thiab cov ntaub ntawv.

Txawm hais tias qhov poob qis yuav zoo li me me, nws yog qhov loj tshaj plaws ib hlis poob ntawm cov nqi txij li Lub Ib Hlis 2011. Nws kuj yog qhov thib ob-qhov phem tshaj plaws hauv lub Xya Hli kev ua haujlwm txij li xyoo 1991, tom qab 0.9% poob rau Lub Xya Hli 2010, thaum Lub Xya Hli Xyoo XNUMX.

Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev poob qis hauv cov nqi yuav ua tsawg heev los txhim kho cov teeb meem kev them taus los ntawm kev nce nqi tsev. Thaum cov nqi poob qis me ntsis hauv lub Yim Hli, lawv tau nce siab dua lub lim tiam no, ua rau lub lim tiam tsawg kawg nkaus hauv vaj tsev nyob hauv 35 xyoo.

Tam sim no nws yuav siv 35.51% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab los ua tus thawj tswj hwm txhua hli thiab cov paj laum ntawm lub tsev nruab nrab nrog 30-xyoo qiv nyiaj thiab 20% nqis. Qhov ntawd tau nce qis los ntawm qhov ua ntej 35-xyoo siab rov qab rau lub Rau Hli, thaum qhov kev them nyiaj-rau-cov nyiaj tau los piv tau txog 35.49%, raws li Andy Walden, tus lwm thawj ntawm kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam thiab lub tswv yim ntawm Black Knight.

Hauv tsib xyoos ua ntej cov paj laum pib nce, qhov nyiaj tau los-rau-them nyiaj tau nyob ruaj khov nyob ib puag ncig 20%. Txawm hais tias tus nqi tsev tau nce siab hauv 2020 thiab 2021, cov paj laum qis qis dua qhov nce.

"Vim hais tias lub luag haujlwm loj ntawm kev them taus cov kev sib tw zoo li ua si hauv kev hloov pauv kev lag luam hauv tsev, qhov kev thim rov qab hauv cov nqi tsev tsis ntev los no yuav txuas ntxiv mus," Walden tau hais.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab los ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam vaj tse Redfin tau pom tias thaum cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev xav tau sawv me ntsis hauv lub Yim Hli, qhov kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi tsev nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los ua rau nws tsaug zog. Tsawg tus neeg tau tshawb nrhiav "tsev muag khoom" hauv Google nrog kev tshawb nrhiav thaum lub lim tiam xaus lub Cuaj Hlis 3 - nqis 25% los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom.

Redfin qhov kev thov index, uas ntsuas kev thov rau kev ncig xyuas hauv tsev thiab lwm yam kev pabcuam hauv tsev los ntawm Redfin tus neeg sawv cev, pom tias thaum lub sijhawm xya hnub xaus lub Cuaj Hlis 4, qhov kev thov tau nce 18% los ntawm 2022 qis thaum Lub Rau Hli, tab sis tseem nqis 11% xyoo dhau los. xyoo.

Daryl Fairweather, Redfin tus kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag, "tab sis xyoo no kuv cia siab tias lub caij nplooj zeeg thiab lub caij ntuj no yuav txias tshwj xeeb vim kev muag khoom qhuav ntau dua li niaj zaus."