Collapse Threatens spillover Effects nyob rau hauv cov lag luam loj no

Tojsiab

Raws li kev muag khoom hauv tsev poob mus rau qib qis tshaj plaws hauv lub xyoo, cov pob khaus ntawm kev lag luam khi rau kev lag luam vaj tsev tau pib pom cov tsos mob ntawm kev puas tsuaj, nrog cov neeg tsim tsev, cov neeg tsim khoom thiab qee cov khw muag khoom ntawm cov uas yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws raws li cov kws tshaj lij txhawj xeeb txog kev poob qis. tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam dav dav.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Hauv ib hnub Tuesday daim ntawv qhia, Lub Tuam Txhab Nyiaj Txiag Tebchaws Asmeskas tau sau tseg tus nqi ntawm kev them nyiaj xa mus rau escrow thiab cov tuam txhab npe - feem ntau yog siv los them cov nyiaj tso cia rau kev muag khoom hauv tsev - tau poob rau xyoo no thawj zaug txij li Covid kev lag luam poob qis hauv nruab nrab xyoo 2020, raws li cov neeg siv khoom siv cov ntaub ntawv, ntxiv rau mounting cov cim qhia ntawm kev lag luam vaj tse qeeb.

Tej zaum qhov kev cuam tshuam tau hnov ​​feem ntau los ntawm cov neeg tsim tsev, uas nyob rau lub Yim Hli tshaj tawm hais tias lub teb chaws tau poob rau hauv "kev lag luam vaj tse" thiab tau pom cov khoom lag luam poob ntau dua 30% xyoo no, raws li S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, uas suav nrog cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev xws li Masco thiab Owens Corning; Qhov dav S&P 500 tau poob 24%.

Bank of America tau sau tseg tias qhov kev poob qis kuj tseem tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau cov neeg siv khoom siv vim qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov vaj tse ntsig txog ntu, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog siv cov rooj tog zaum, uas muaj "keeb kwm ze" kev sib raug zoo nrog kev muag vaj tsev thiab tau poob ntau dua 10% xyoo dhau los. xyoo.

Nyob rau hauv lub voj voog yav dhau los, suav nrog kev sib tsoo uas ua rau muaj Kev Txom Nyem Loj ntau tshaj li kaum xyoo dhau los, kev siv rooj tog tsis tau poob qis kom txog rau thaum ob peb lub hlis tom qab kev muag khoom hauv tsev, yog li Bank of America sau tseg tias tsis muaj zog ntxiv tuaj yeem ua ntej.

Lwm qhov cuam tshuam rau qhov poob qis suav nrog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov tuam txhab kev lom zem hauv tsev thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob suav nrog Best Buy, uas nws CEO xyoo tas los taw qhia rau kev lag luam vaj tsev zoo nkauj. Vim li cas rau kev muag khoom zoo dua li qhov xav tau ntawm cov khoom xws li TVs thiab teeb tsa hauv tsev ua yeeb yam.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tseem tsis tau ntseeg tias qhov kev cuam tshuam txog vaj tsev nyob ib leeg yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis qhov cuam tshuam tuaj yeem loj: Harvard cov kws tshawb fawb muaj kwv yees kev lag luam cov teebmeem tau suav txog tsawg kawg ib lub hlis twg ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv tus kheej, uas hais kom muaj ntau tshaj 70% ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv lub tebchaws.

Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb

Txawm hais tias tag nrho cov khw muag khoom muag tau nce thaum Lub Yim Hli, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom xws li rooj tog thiab khoom siv hluav taws xob tau poob ze li 2% thiab 6% xyoo dhau los - qhov kev hloov pauv tsis zoo txhua xyoo ntawm cov hom kev lag luam tau taug qab los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam, raws li qhov tseeb. cov ntaub ntawv.

Contra

Ib qho kev lag luam ntsig txog vaj tsev nyob uas ntau tus neeg siv khoom hais tias lawv yuav siv nyiaj ntau dua - tsis yog tsawg dua - yog kev txhim kho tsev, sau ntawv Bank of America. Hnub Monday, R5 Capital tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Scott Mushkin tau txo qis Lowe cov khoom lag luam thiab hais tias muaj kev pheej hmoo rau kev lag luam vaj tsev yog "loj heev" rau nws kom pom zoo cov tub ua lag luam yuav cov khoom lag luam, tab sis lwm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, suav nrog Atlantic Equities 'Sam Hudson, nco ntsoov tias tom qab Covid ib puag ncig zoo. rau cov tuam txhab txhim kho tsev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog vim cov neeg Asmeskas tsawg dua yuav tsev yuav txhais tau tias ntau tus neeg yuav nqis peev rau lawv cov khoom uas twb muaj lawm.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Kev lag luam vaj tsev txuas ntxiv yog ib qho ntawm cov haujlwm nyuaj tshaj plaws los ntawm Fed tus nqi nce siab, thiab kev txhawj xeeb txog kev poob qis tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis tsuas yog tshwm sim. Nrog cov ntawv thov qiv nyiaj poob mus rau lawv cov qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1997, qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees qhov kev thov poob qis yuav ua rau muaj kev kho tus nqi hauv tsev. Hnub Tuesday, International Monetary Fund hais tias "muaj peev xwm kis tau tus kab mob" ntawm qhov kev kho yuav zoo li "tsawg dua li kev lag luam kev lag luam yav dhau los," tab sis nws tau sau tseg tias muaj kev pheej hmoo tshwm sim nyob rau lwm qhov hauv vaj tsev, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob hauv Tebchaws Meskas, uas muaj ntau lub tuam txhab tau pib ua lub luag haujlwm hauv securitized tsev lag luam.

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj poob rau thawj zaug hauv 6 lub lis piam-Tab sis Lub Tsev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam tuaj yeem dhau ob peb xyoos, Wells Fargo ceeb toom (Forbes)

Kev lag luam vaj tsev sib tsoo tuaj yeem thawb tus nqi tsev nqis 20% Hauv khw loj xws li Dallas thiab Los Angeles, cov kws tshaj lij kwv yees (Forbes)