Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Citigroup tau txiav lawv cov S&P 500 lub hom phiaj rau xyoo no los ntawm 500 cov ntsiab lus rau 4,200, tom qab qhov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus siab tau txhawb nqa Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve kom nce nqi paj.
"Fed hawkishness thiab nce tus nqi tiag tiag cuam tshuam rau kev nqis peev yog qhov tseem ceeb" ntawm kev lag luam poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, Citigroup cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb txog US cov tswv yim sib luag tom qab kev lag luam kaw rau hnub Friday. Lawv lub hom phiaj kho dua tshiab yog siab dua S&P 500's
SPX,
kev lag luam theem thaum yav tav su hnub Monday ntawm ib ncig ntawm 3,915, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos.
Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam tau poob qis hauv 2022, nrog rau S&P 500 poob rau hauv lub lag luam dais thaum cov tub lag luam ntshai tias Fed kev pheej hmoo thawb kev lag luam mus rau kev lag luam poob qis thaum nws tawm tsam qhov kub siab tshaj nyiaj txiag hauv 40 xyoo. Bearish positioning ua ke nrog "zoo dua li kev ntshai cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov cim qhia ntawm qhov nce siab," teeb tsa "zoo" ib nrab xyoo thib ob, raws li Citi ceeb toom.
"Peb lub hauv paus 4700 lub hom phiaj nyob rau hauv qhov chaw txij li lub Peb Hlis thaum ntxov tau suav rau thaj chaw tswj hwm ntawm kev nqis peev tab sis nrog kev lag luam muag muag," Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau hais. Lawv hloov kho S&P 500 lub hom phiaj rau 2022 tau txiav txim siab los ntawm kev sib xyaw lawv "muab tsaws" thiab cov xwm txheej kev lag luam poob qis.
CITI RESEARCH CEEB TOOM Hnub tim 24 Lub Rau Hli 2022
Citi economists tam sim no peg qhov txawv ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm 50%, raws li daim ntawv.
"Peb xav tias lub sijhawm kev lag luam poob qis mus rau nruab nrab-23," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas nyiaj txiag tau hais. "Lingering nce nqi thiab pheej hmoo ntawm stagflation tsis tau daws," lawv hais, ntxiv tias "nyiaj tau los txaus ntshai yog qhov teeb meem loj dua rau xyoo tom ntej. "
Lub lim tiam dhau los Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj Asmeskas tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees Mike Wilson ceeb toom tias kev lag luam Tshuag tsis yog tus nqi hauv kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis, uas tuaj yeem xa S&P 500 mus rau ib ncig ntawm 3,000.
Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam qhib me ntsis siab dua Hnub Monday tom qab cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tshiab tau pom tias kev txiav txim tshiab rau cov khoom ruaj khov nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis tau muaj zog dua li kev kwv yees. S&P 500 tau tawm tsam rau kev taw qhia thaum yav tav su ua lag luam hnub Monday, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
tau nce 0.1% thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
tau nqis 0.4%, FactSet cov ntaub ntawv qhia, thaum kawg kos.
Lub caij no, Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau hais tias "ib qho ntawm cov ntsuas macro txuas ntxiv txhawb nqa 8% saum toj sau nyiaj tau txais daim duab loj hlob rau xyoo no." Lawv tau sau tias "cov nyiaj khwv tau los ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig raws li kev ntsuas tau muaj cai ntau" tau teeb tsa rau lawv qhov kev hu xovtooj zaum kawg rau S&P 500.
"Peb tau lees paub tias muaj kev cia siab ntau dhau ntawm US cov peev txheej txog tam sim no xyoo no," Citi kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais. "Peb cia siab tias US cov peev txheej rov qab los" thaum lub sijhawm thib ob ntawm 2022, "uas tsuas yog txo qis tag nrho lub xyoo rub tawm."
S&P 500 tau poob yuav luag 18% hauv 2022 raws li kev lag luam yav tsaus ntuj hnub Monday, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/citigroup-cuts-sp-500-target-to-reflect-blend-of-recession-soft-landing-scenarios-11656347620?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo