(Bloomberg) - Txawm tias nyob rau hauv ib qho kev lag luam nto moo rau nws cov menyuam-coaster cycles, chipmakers yog bracing rau ib tug tshwj xeeb kev hloov loj nyob rau hauv lub hlis tom ntej, thaum cov ntaub ntawv teev-muag muag tau hem yuav muab txoj kev mus rau qhov phem tshaj poob nyob rau hauv ib xyoo caum los yog ntau tshaj.
Lub lag luam semiconductor nyiam qhov kev txiav txim loj heev thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis, xa cov nqi muag khoom thiab cov khoom lag luam mus rau qhov siab tshiab thiab ua rau muaj kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb kom pom cov khoom siv txaus. Muaj kev cia siab nyob rau hauv qee lub voj voog uas qhov boom tuaj yeem txhawb nqa tau ob peb xyoos ntxiv yam tsis muaj qhov mob hnyav, tab sis cov neeg tsim khoom tam sim no ntsib teeb meem paub: cov khoom lag luam loj hlob thiab kev xav tau poob qis.
Nws yog ib qho teeb meem loj npaum li lub hnub nyoog suav. Nws yuav siv sij hawm ntau xyoo los tsim cov chip cog, thiab lawv tsis tas li tuaj hauv online thaum lawv xav tau tshaj plaws. Hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, qhov teeb meem yog qhov tsis txaus. Raws li tsis ntev los no lub quarter no, automakers thiab lwm tus neeg siv khoom yws yws lawv tseem tsis tuaj yeem tau txais cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txaus.
Tab sis hmoov zoo tau tig nrawm rau cov chipmakers loj tshaj plaws. Cov tuam txhab xws li Nvidia Corp. tau tshaj tawm ntau ntxiv tias 40% txhua xyoo poob hauv lawv cov lag luam tseem ceeb, thaum Micron Technology Inc. ceeb toom tias qhov kev thov tau nrawm nrawm hauv ntau thaj chaw. Lub lim tiam no, tsoomfwv Suav cov ntaub ntawv tau qhia tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev sib koom ua ke poob qis 17% hauv Lub Xya Hli tom qab kev loj hlob zoo hauv 2021, qhia txog cov khoom lag luam poob siab nrog rau kev xav tau ntawm cov chips qis kawg los ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws semiconductor.
Kev ntxeev siab ntawm lub voj voog semiconductor tau tsav mus tsev thaum Thawj Tswj Hwm Joe Biden tau kos npe rau $ 52 billion Chips thiab Science Act los pab txhawb kev tsim khoom hauv tsev - nyob rau hnub uas Micron, Asmeskas tus tsim loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov chips nco, hais rau cov tub ua lag luam xav tau ploj mus.
Sanford C. Bernstein tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Stacy Rasgon tau hais tias "Nws yog ib qho kev lom zem tsaus nti. "Cov nom tswv tab tom nrhiav seb qhov kev tsis txaus siab sai npaum li cas tuaj yeem daws lawv tus kheej thaum kev lag luam tig."
Tus kheej lub computer tsim, qee tus neeg yuav khoom loj tshaj ntawm cov chips, yog lub sijhawm tsaus ntuj. Desktop processor xa khoom poob mus rau lawv cov qib qis tshaj nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm peb lub xyoo caum nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, raws li Mercury Research. Tag nrho cov txheej txheem xa khoom tau ntsib lawv qhov loj tshaj plaws xyoo dhau ib xyoos txij li xyoo 1984.
Nws yog qhov mob hangover tom qab muaj kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, thaum kev ua haujlwm hauv tsev tau txhawb nqa kev thov rau PCs thiab lwm yam khoom siv. Chipmakers tau maj nrawm kom ua raws li dej nyab ntawm kev txiav txim, thiab cov khoom siv-chain snags ua rau cov neeg siv khoom xav tau ntau dua. Cov neeg tsim khoom siv hluav taws xob tau txaus siab yuav cov chips ntawm tus nqi twg lawv tuaj yeem ua tau.
Tam sim no cov neeg siv khoom tau txiav txim siab ntawm kev yuav daim pib loj, thiab cov neeg yuav khoom chip tau ua raws li kev nplua. Qhov ntawd tau tsim qhov kev lag luam hu ua "kev kho cov khoom muag." Qhov kev poob qis kawg no yog xyoo 2019, thiab lawv feem ntau tsis kav ntev.
Tab sis qhov no yuav tsum tau hais tshwj xeeb tshaj yog vim muaj kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog. Yog tias kev kho cov khoom lag luam tshwm sim nyob rau tib lub sijhawm kev lag luam poob rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis, kev lag luam yuav tsis tau txais qhov nrawm nrawm uas nws pom tom qab kev poob qis kawg.
Gus Richard, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Northland Securities tau hais tias "Nws yuav yog qhov kev poob qis tsis zoo."
Christopher Danely, tus kws tshuaj xyuas Citigroup Inc., cia siab tias qhov kev lag luam poob qis yuav yog qhov phem tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv tsawg kawg yog kaum xyoo, thiab tej zaum ob. Txhua lub tuam txhab thiab txhua pawg chip yuav raug kev txom nyem, nws hais.
Ib qho txawv txav ntawm lub sijhawm no yog kev txhawb nqa dav dav los ntawm tsoomfwv los pab txhawb cov chaw tsim khoom tshiab thiab khoom siv, los ntawm Asmeskas thiab Europe mus rau Tuam Tshoj thiab Nyiv. Cov tuam txhab xws li Intel Corp. lobbied rau txoj cai ntawm Chips, sib cav hais tias US yuav tsum muaj kev sib tw nrog Asian manufacturers. Tam sim no lawv tau npaj los pib ntxiv lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm lub sijhawm ntawm kev xav tau shaky.
Muaj 24 qhov kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm cov nroj tsuag loj, hu ua fabs, tau pib hauv xyoo 2022, raws li cov khoom lag luam chip kev lag luam koom haum SEMI. Qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo tshaj qhov nruab nrab ntawm 20 uas tau taug qab los ntawm SEMI txij li xyoo 2014. Tag nrho cov kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov khoom siv yuav ncav cuag $ 117.5 nphom hauv 2022, nce 15% los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam yav dhau los, uas yog nyob rau hauv 2021. Xyoo tom ntej cov kev siv nyiaj yuav nce mus txog $ 120.8 billion. , SEMI kwv yees.
Richard hais tias "Nws tau dhau los ua kev sib tw ntawm cov tuam txhab," Richard hais. "Tam sim no nws yog ib qho kev sib tw ntawm cov teb chaws vim yog lub tswv yim tseem ceeb. Muaj kev sib tw ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Asmeskas. "
Kev lag luam ntawm kev tsim cov chips tau dhau los ua qhov tsis txaus ntseeg vim tias cov nqi ua ntej loj heev. Cov nroj tsuag nrog tus nqi txog li $ 20 nphom yuav tsum tau khiav tawm 24 teev nyob rau ib hnub kom rov qab los nyob rau ob peb xyoos ua ntej lawv dhau los. Qhov ntsuas yuav tsum tau ua kom zoo li kev nqis peev tau txo cov tuam txhab nrog cov thev naus laus zis ua ntej kom tsawg dua tsib. Thiab tsuas yog peb, Samsung Electronics Co., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. thiab Intel, suav rau feem ntau ntawm kev tsim khoom.
Cov tuam txhab tsim lawv txoj kev tswj hwm los ntawm kev nkag siab txog kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam zoo dua li lawv cov neeg sib tw. Lawv ntxiv cov kab ntau lawm ntawm lub sijhawm tsim nyog thiab ua rau lawv cov khoom siv tau zoo li qhov ua tau.
Tab sis kev thawb los tsim cov chips ntau lawm hauv Asmeskas thiab Europe, muab lwm txoj hauv kev rau Asian manufacturing, tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov tsav mus rau kev ua tau zoo.
Kev lag luam yog "ua tau zoo tsim cov saw hlau sib txuas hauv Asmeskas thiab Europe," tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Fitch Ratings Jason Pompeii tau hais. "Qhov kev hloov pauv no yuav ua rau lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nyiaj tau los tsis zoo, tshwj xeeb yog piv nrog kev ua haujlwm tau zoo uas kev lag luam tau nyiam ntau xyoo dhau los."
Hauv lub sijhawm tam sim no, qhov kev pheej hmoo yog "kev nqis peev ntau dhau ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm mus rau kev lag luam poob qis," nws hais.
Chipmakers nyob twj ywm bullish txog kev thov nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev. Cov thawj coj tseem cia siab tias kev lag luam yuav ntaus $ 1 trillion hauv tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kaum xyoo. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias lawv lub Hoobkas loj tsim tawm tuaj yeem tsim nyog rau nws.
Thiab thaum kawg, tsis muaj leej twg paub tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim, hais tias Bernstein's Rasgon. Qhov ntawd yog zaj dab neeg ntawm kev lag luam chip.
Nws tau hais tias "Txhua tus neeg phem heev ntawm kev kwv yees xav tau," nws hais. "Lawv yog bullish heev, ces lawv yog bearish heev."
(Hloov kho tshiab nrog cov ntaub ntawv tawm hauv Suav teb tshiab hauv kab lus plaub)
Ntau zaj dab neeg zoo li qhov no muaj nyob rau Bloomberg.com
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