Chip Tshuag Cov Nyiaj Tau Los kwv yees tseem saib txoj kev siab dhau, Goldman Analyst ceeb toom

Ntawv loj

Chip stocks tau nce hauv av rau hnub Friday tom qab zoo dua li qhov kev cia siab cov txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag los ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom cog lus

Taiwan semiconductor
,
tab sis lub sector nyob deb ntawm cov ntoo. Kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los tseem pheej hmoo.

Hnub Friday,

Goldman Sachs

nti kws tshuaj ntsuam Toshiya Hari txiav nws daim ntawv qhia hnub 2023 cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 20% rau ob qho tib si chip txiag thiab cov khoom siv semiconductor cov khoom lag luam kom muaj kev cuam tshuam txuas ntxiv tsis zoo nyob rau hauv macroeconomic ib puag ncig.

"Tsis muaj ib qho ntawm peb lub tuam txhab muaj kev tiv thaiv kom tsis txhob muaj kev poob qis hauv GDP thoob ntiaj teb, thiab yog tias muaj dab tsi, peb cia siab tias cov pab pawg yuav nyob rau hauv siab kom txog thaum kev kwv yees txoj kev txaus ntshai," Hari tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb. lwm yam kws tshuaj ntsuam tau txiav lawv cov kev kwv yees, tab sis Hari xav tias muaj ntau ntxiv mus. Nws tau sau tseg tias qhov nruab nrab, nws qhov kev kwv yees kho dua xyoo 2023 yog 22% qis dua qhov kev pom zoo hu rau chip stocks, thiab 27% hauv qab no rau cov khoom tsim.

Lub Peb Hlis, Hari kuj ua ib puag ncig ntawm kev kwv yees dav txiav, tab sis tam sim no nws tau ntseeg tias nws tsis mus deb txaus. Goldman cov kws lag luam txij li tau txo qis lawv cov kev kwv yees rau kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb "raws li kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua tau ua rau cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab kom nce cov paj laum sai dua li qhov xav tau yav dhau los," nws hais.

Nws yog tam sim no pom tseeb tias cov neeg siv khoom siv thev naus laus zis kev lag luam, uas tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv tsev, tam sim no pom "ntse" cov nyiaj tau los poob qis, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau. Hari tau hais tias thaum lub tuam txhab nti ntau khi rau cov lag luam uas tsis yog cov neeg siv khoom lag luam xws li huab, cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, thiab kev lag luam yuav zoo li "qhia rau qhov kev xav tau zoo dua," nws tsuas yog ib qho teeb meem ntawm lub sijhawm ua ntej cov cheeb tsam zoo li no qhia txog kev xav tau softening. .

Hari qhov kev txiav txim siab rau nws qhov kev kwv yees rau cov tuam txhab chip tau deb heev. Pom softer thov nyob rau hauv lub PC thiab cov ntaub ntawv chaw lag luam, nws txiav nws kwv yees rau

Intel

(INTC), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), thiab

Nvidia

(NVDA). Nws txo qis nws qhov kev xav zoo ib yam rau kev lag luam thiab tsheb chip players nyiam

Texas seev

(TXN), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) thiab ON Semiconductor (ON).

Nws tau muab nws cov lej ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom siv lub xov tooj ntawm tes

Qorvo

(QRVO) thiab

NtujTswv Ntuj

(SWKS), ntawm distributors

avnet

(AVT) thiab Arrow (ARW), cov khoom lag luam disk-tsav

Seagate

(STX) thiab

Western Digital

(WDC), thiab cov chaw muab khoom siv nyiam

Cov Khoom Siv

(AMAT), Lam (LRCX) and

KLA

(KLAC).

Cov txiav tau sib sib zog nqus thiab dav. Rau 2023, nws tau txo nws cov kev kwv yees ntawm ib qho nyiaj tau los ntawm 46% rau Intel, 21% rau Texas Instruments, 42% rau ON Semi, thiab 43% rau Seagate thiab Western Digital, piv txwv li.

Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam pom tias cov tub ua lag luam chip tsom rau cov tuam txhab overexposed rau kev tiv thaiv kawg kev lag luam, los yog nrog cov nqi uas muaj qhov zoo sib npaug ntawm cov kev pheej hmoo thiab cov khoom plig muaj peev xwm. Nws cov npe yuav khoom suav nrog Analog Devices (ADI), AMD, Credo Technology Group (CRDO),

Kev Nkag

(NTSE),

Marvell

(MRVL), thiab Impinj (PI). Nws tuav Kev Muag Khoom ntawm Intel, Texas Instruments, Avnet, thiab

Cov

(COHU).

Sau ntawv rau Eric J. Savitz ntawm [email tiv thaiv]