Tuam Tshoj yuav "muaj hmoo" kom loj hlob nws txoj kev lag luam los ntawm 2.5% txhua xyoo nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, raws li Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Capital tus tsim thiab CIO.
Tuam Tshoj qhia txog lub hom phiaj kev loj hlob qis tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo
Raws li ib feem ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub rooj sib tham txhua xyoo, tus thawj tswj hwm Li Keqiang tau coj kev lag luam kom loj hlob ze li 5%. Qhov no sawv cev rau lub hom phiaj qis tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo uas tau raug liam tias "ntau yam nyuaj" ntsib kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab thoob ntiaj teb.
Li tau hais thaum lub rooj sib tham txhua xyoo "qhov kev thov tsis txaus tseem yog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb" thaum qee tsoomfwv hauv nroog "tseem ntsib teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj." Txawm li cas los xij, tsoomfwv lub hom phiaj kev loj hlob ntawm 5% tseem nyob deb tshaj rau Tebchaws Meskas '1.4% thiab lub tebchaws United Kingdom txoj kev loj hlob tsis zoo.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob 2022 'zoo li exaggerated'
Sharma tau hais rau CNBC's "Squawk Box" ntu, hais tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tau loj hlob ntawm kev sib tsoo rau 40 xyoo, tab sis nws lub zog tau nres. Cov tsav tsheb ntawm kev loj hlob uas txhawb kev lag luam rau ntau xyoo lawm feem ntau ploj mus, nrog rau Tuam Tshoj pejxeem shrinking, cov khoom tsim tau qis, thiab cov kev sib tw sab nraud xws li kev txwv thiab kev nplua los ntawm Washington.
Beijing tau npaj siab tawm tsam rov qab los tawm tsam Asmeskas hegemony, zoo li qhia los ntawm Invezz's Shivam Kaushik, tab sis Sharma tsis tshwm sim ntseeg tias qhov no yog kev sib ntaus nws tuaj yeem yeej. Nws ntxiv:
Kuv xav tias Suav kev lag luam nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev yuav muaj hmoo kom loj hlob ntawm ib nrab ntawm qhov ntawd - ntawm 2.5%. Kuv xav tias 5% rau xyoo no tej zaum OK vim tias lawv tau rov qab los ntawm lub hauv paus qis. Tab sis txawm tias xyoo tas los lawv loj hlob ntawm 3% thiab tus lej 3% zoo li exaggerated.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob zoo tshaj plaws ntawm 2.5% rau tsawg kawg 10 xyoo tom ntej no txhais tau tias nws yuav tsis "hauv peb lub neej" tshaj US raws li kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, Sharma tau hais.
Mark Mobius ntawm Tuam Tshoj: yuav tsum ceev faj heev
Raws li Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob tsis txaus ntseeg, tus neeg ua lag luam billionaire Mark Mobius tau hais rau FOX Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum "yuav tsum ceev faj heev" thaum nws los txog rau kev nqis peev hauv Suav teb. Nws tau hais thaum lub sijhawm xam phaj nws tab tom nrhiav kom nws nthuav dav rau Is Nrias teb thiab Brazil vim tias Tuam Tshoj tau "ua kom muaj kev tswj hwm ntau dua."
Anecdotal, Mobius hais tias nws tab tom muaj teeb meem hauv kev rho tawm nws cov peev uas khaws cia ntawm HSBC lub txhab nyiaj hauv Shanghai vim tias tsoomfwv tau "txo cov nyiaj ntws tawm hauv lub tebchaws."
Tawm tswv yim rau Mobius 'kev ceeb toom, Tuam Tshoj Beige Phau Ntawv CEO Leland Miller cais tawm ntawm "Squawk Box" tias Tuam Tshoj yeej ib txwm txwv cov peev nyiaj tawm. Nws hais tias:
Nws yog ib qho kev lom zem uas Mobius nyuam qhuav kawm tam sim no tias Tuam Tshoj muaj cov peev nyiaj kaw. Qhov no tsis yog tshiab. Obviously, thaum tej yam tsis zoo, lawv tswj nws nruj dua li lawv ua thaum lawv tawg ntawm seams nrog kev loj hlob.
Source: https://invezz.com/news/2023/03/06/china-should-be-lucky-to-grow-its-economy-at-2-5-over-the-long-term-pro/