Tuam Tshoj tsis tuaj yeem tso siab rau cov khoom xa tawm sab hnub tuaj Asia los cuam tshuam rau Asmeskas kev poob qis

BEIJING - Tuam Tshoj tsis tuaj yeem yooj yim cia siab rau nws cov neeg zej zog raws li kev lag luam xa tawm hauv ntiaj teb qeeb, cov ntaub ntawv luam tawm tshiab tshaj tawm.

Exports mus rau lub koom haum ntawm Southeast Asia Nations tau loj hlob. 10-tus tswvcuab bloc tau dhau European Union thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb los ua Tuam Tshoj tus lag luam loj tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv cheeb tsam.

Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias kev xa tawm mus rau South Asia poob los ntawm 16% hauv lub Tsib Hlis piv rau ib xyoos dhau los, ua rau Suav teb tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm.

Kev xa tawm mus rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas - Tuam Tshoj tus lag luam loj tshaj plaws ntawm ib lub teb chaws - poob los ntawm 18% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov nqe lus hauv lub Tsib Hlis. Qhov ntawd yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv raug cai nkag los ntawm Cua Xov Xwm.

Ntawm $ 42.48 nphom, Asmeskas cov khoom xa tawm hauv lub Tsib Hlis yog ntau dua li $ 41.49 nphom Tuam Tshoj xa tawm mus rau South Asia lub hlis ntawd, raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai.

Cov neeg Esxias sab hnub tuaj yeem tsis tuaj yeem them tag nrho qhov poob los ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam, hais tias Bruce Pang, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag thiab tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb rau Greater China ntawm JLL.

ASEAN yog tsim los ntawm 10 lub teb chaws: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thaib teb thiab Nyab Laj.

Teb Chaws Asmeskas yog ib qho kev lag luam piv rau ib pawg ntawm 10 lub teb chaws, Pang tau taw qhia, ntxiv tias cov tuam txhab tseem tuaj yeem muag ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ntau dua hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam.

Kev lag luam tau yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum muaj kev sib kis.

Kev xa tawm tseem suav txog kwv yees li 18% ntawm kev lag luam, txawm hais tias qhov ntawd zoo dua li kwv yees li 30% qhia nws ib zaug, Tao Wang, tus thawj coj ntawm Asia kev lag luam thiab tus thawj coj ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus kws lag luam ntawm UBS Investment Bank, hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm hnub Monday.

Kev loj hlob thoob ntiaj teb qeeb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab Cov Neeg Esxias Qab Teb Hnub Tuaj, tsis zoo rau kev pom zoo ntawm Suav xa tawm.

"Peb cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm yuav nyob qis qis, raws li peb cia siab tias Asmeskas kev lag luam yuav nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis hauv H2 thaum lub ntiaj teb destocking pressures tseem nce ntxiv," Lloyd Chan, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus ntawm Oxford Economics, tau hais hauv tsab ntawv Wednesday.

Cov lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kuj tau ua hauj lwm los ntawm cov khoom lag luam siab uas tsis tau muag hauv ib nrab xyoo tas los vim muaj kev nce nqi siab.

US GDP xav tias yuav qeeb los ntawm 2.1% hauv 2022 txog 1.6% xyoo no, raws li International Monetary Fund.

ASEAN lub GDP tau teem kom qeeb mus rau 4.6% kev loj hlob rau xyoo no, nqis los ntawm xyoo tas los 5.7% pace, IMF tau hais rau lub Plaub Hlis, thaum nws txo nws qhov kev kwv yees rau cheeb tsam GDP kev loj hlob los ntawm 0.1 feem pua.

"Qhov kev poob qis hauv lub Tsib Hlis rov lees paub peb qhov kev xav tias Tuam Tshoj cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm txhua hli mus rau qee lub tebchaws ASEAN kev lag luam - tshwj xeeb yog Nyab Laj, Singapore, Malaysia thiab Thaib teb - tej zaum yuav txawv me ntsis," Nomura economists tau hais nyob rau hauv daim ntawv hnub Wednesday.

"Raws li pom tseeb poob qis, kev xa tawm mus rau ASEAN tau tig los ntawm tus tsav tsheb loj mus rau kev rub, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm -2.4pp rau kev loj hlob hauv lub Tsib Hlis."

Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab ASEAN txhua tus suav txog 15% ntawm Tuam Tshoj tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm hauv lub Tsib Hlis, raws li CNBC suav nrog cov ntaub ntawv cua cua.

Raws li lub xyoo dhau los, lub bloc muaj feem ntau dua me ntsis, ntawm 16% ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm piv rau Tebchaws Meskas 14% feem, cov ntaub ntawv qhia.

"Saib rau pem hauv ntej, [Tuam Tshoj] cov khoom xa tawm zoo li yuav txo qis ntxiv rau ntawm lub hauv paus siab, ua rau lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam poob qis zuj zus thiab ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam los ntawm sab hnub poob," Nomura cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais.

Kev xa tawm poob qis tuaj thaum Asmeskas-Tuam Tshoj kev sib raug zoo tseem tab tom nruj, thiab Beijing tau nrhiav kev txhawb nqa kev lag luam nrog cov teb chaws loj hlob hauv Asia Pacific.

"Nws yog 20-25% kim dua los muag ntau yam khoom rau Asmeskas, tshwj xeeb yog cov khoom nruab nrab xws li cov khoom siv tshuab," Jack Zhang, tus pab xibfwb ntawm kev tshawb fawb txog kev nom kev tswv ntawm University of Kansas, hais rau CNBC hauv email.

Nws tau hais tias "Kev txhawb nqa kev lag luam nrog cov teb chaws tsim kho tau nce nrawm nrog kev kaw ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam thiab EU-Tuam Tshoj kev nqis peev kev lag luam poob qis tom qab tsov rog Ukraine," nws hais.

Lub 10-lub teb chaws bloc - nrog rau Nyiv, Kaus Lim Qab Teb, Australia thiab New Zealand - tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus ua lag luam dawb nrog Tuam Tshoj hauv 2020. Lub Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership lossis RCEP yog qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb.

Beijing tau hais tias nws tseem xav koom nrog lwm lub lag luam lag luam - Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Tshaj Plaws thiab Kev Txhim Kho rau Trans-Pacific Partnership. Tebchaws Asmeskas tsis yog ib feem ntawm CPTPP, thaum UK tshaj tawm kev pom zoo los koom nrog lub Peb Hlis.

RCEP tau txhawb nqa Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam nrog ASEAN, raws li muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm qee qhov kev tsim khoom siv zog rau hauv cheeb tsam, Zhang tau hais.

Lub caij no, nws tau sau tseg tias "Tuam Tshoj tau nthuav dav kev sib tham rau Tuam Tshoj-ASEAN FTA (CAFTA 3.0), nws tab tom tshawb nrhiav FTAs ​​nrog Mercusor hauv LatAm thiab Gulf Kev Koom Tes Council (GCC)."

Mercusor lag luam bloc suav nrog Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, thiab Uruguay.

- CNBC's Clement Tan contributed rau daim ntawv no.