Charlie Munger Yuav Ntau Alibaba: Ib Daim Ntawv Qhia Nqe

Thaum Charlie Munger ntxiv rau txoj haujlwm uas twb muaj lawm hauv cov khoom lag luam, nws yog ib lub tswv yim zoo uas yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo mloog.

Nws thiab Warren Buffett khiav qhov legendary Berkshire Hathaway
BRK.A
cov nyiaj uas tau ua tau zoo nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev. Lawv muaj nuj nqis rau cov tub ua lag luam thiab muaj cov ntaub ntawv tsim nyog ntawm kev zam fads, dab neeg cov khoom lag luam thiab cov kev xav tsis zoo. Lawv haus Coca Cola ntau dhau lawm
KO
thiab noj ice cream ntau heev, tab sis tsis yog, lawv laus thiab nyob hauv Omaha.

Munger's "Daily Journal Corp
DJCO
” nyuam qhuav khaws ib qho nyiaj ntau ntawm Suav lub tuam txhab internet Alibaba, ntxiv rau qhov zoo uas nws twb muaj lawm. Nws yog tus thawj coj ntawm Cov Ntawv Xov Xwm Txhua Hnub thiab txoj haujlwm tshiab ua ob npaug ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas twb muaj lawm hauv lub tuam txhab cov ntaub ntawv.

Ntau qhov kev txhaj tshuaj kub ntawm Phab ntsa Street ntshai tsam muaj cov khoom lag luam Suav tam sim no vim tias nws nyuaj rau hais tias tsoomfwv Beijing yuav muaj dab tsi hauv siab txog kev lag luam uas nws saib xyuas. Ntawm qhov tod tes, paub meej, Charlie Munger yog ib tus neeg ntse tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam. Ntawm qhov tod tes, nws puas muaj peev xwm nws ploj lawm qhov teeb meem pom tseeb?

Alibaba tus nqi-nyiaj khwv tau los piv nrog rau tus nqi nqis peev mus kom ze: ntawm tsuas yog 16.85, nws qis dua Shiller p / e rau S&P 500 uas tam sim no zaum ntawm 40. Lub tuam txhab lag luam tsuas yog nyuam qhuav dhau 2 npaug ntawm phau ntawv tus nqi. Shareholder equity zoo heev tshaj cov nuj nqis mus sij hawm ntev. Tus nqi-oriented analysts hlub] cov khoom zoo li no.

Alibaba cov nyiaj tau los tau tawm los ntawm 2.2% xyoo no tab sis 5 xyoo dhau los EPS kev loj hlob yog 14.40%. Lub tuam txhab tsis them nyiaj faib.

Daim ntawv qhia tus nqi txhua hnub rau Alibaba zoo li no:

Feem ntau, ncaj nraim tsis zoo saib tab sis, qee zaum, qhov ntawd yog qhov koj pom cov khoom muaj nqis zoo. Alibaba yog tus nqi qis dua ob qho tib si nws 50-hnub txav nruab nrab (kab xiav) thiab nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab (kab liab). Nws puas muaj lub zog los sau qhov nruab nrab Lub Kaum Ib Hlis qhov sib txawv?

Ntawm no yog li cas daim ntawv qhia tus nqi txhua lub limtiam rau Alibaba zoo li:

Kev poob qis hauv tus nqi tsis ntev los no dhau mus dhau qhov kev txhawb nqa xyoo 2018. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm 50-lub lim tiam yog hla hauv qab 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab. Qhov 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab tsis muaj kev nce siab ntxiv lawm. Los ntawm qhov kev pom ntawm daim ntawv qhia tus nqi yooj yim, qhov no tsis yog qhov zoo.

Daim ntawv qhia tus nqi txhua hli rau Alibaba zoo li no:

Txij xyoo 2020 mus txog rau tam sim no, cov kab liab ntev ntev no qhia txog ntau thiab ntau muag txhua lub hlis. Alibaba tau poob qis dua nws qhov nruab nrab 50-hli, tsis yog qhov koj xav pom yog tias koj yog ib tus neeg ua lag luam ntev uas yuav nws ob peb xyoos dhau los. Ib qho zoo uas tuaj yeem hais tau: cov khoom lag luam tseem zoo tshaj qhov 2015/2016 lows.

Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau tshem tawm Charlie Munger txoj kev peev nyiaj txiag. Cov neeg lag luam xav txog Alibaba raws li tus nqi tsim nyog yuav xav pom tus nqi Tshuag cia li mus rau ib ntus es tsis txhob cia li nqis.

Tsis nqis peev tswv yim. Rau kev kawm nkaus xwb. Nco ntsoov sab laj nrog tus kws pab tswv yim peev sau npe ua ntej txiav txim siab.