Yuav lub dip lossis muag 'rip'?: Dab tsi ntxiv tom ntej raws li S&P 500 kuaj dais-kev lag luam thaj chaw

Qhov kev hloov pauv ntawd tau pom nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los, vim tias cov khoom lag luam poob qis thaum cov neeg ua lag luam txhawj xeeb txog cov neeg siv khoom siv, hais tias Christopher, hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj.

Nws tau hais tias "Kev ua lag luam thaum kawg tau pib ua tus nqi hauv qhov muaj tiag ntawm kev poob qis," nws hais.

Txog tam sim no, lub siab xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tau ua pov thawj nyuaj rau pin down raws li kev lag luam nkag thiab tawm.

JJ Kinahan, tus thawj coj lag luam tawm tswv yim rau cov tuam txhab lag luam online Tastytrade Inc., tau hais hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj. “Nws zoo li mus rau hauv thiab ntaus ib hnub dhau ib hnub, tau txais koj lub pob tw ncaws, tab sis koj tseem tsis tau raug ncaws tawm. Yog li koj yuav tsum rov qab mus rau hauv lub thawv dua. "

Cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tau pom "loj qis," thiab vim tias kev ua lag luam muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam dais, muag tej "rips," qhia cov tswv yim peev ntawm BofA Kev Tshawb Fawb Ntiaj Teb, hauv daim ntawv ceeb toom Tsib Hlis 19. 

Txog hnub Friday, S & P 500 qhov ntsuas
SPX,
+ 0.01%
pauv mus rau hauv dais-kev lag luam thaj chaw tseem tsis tau kaw qhov ntawd vim nws tau tawm qhov nce hauv qhov sib xyaw ua ke rau Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, S&P 500 thiab lwm qhov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb tau txais kev poob qis dua lwm lub lim tiam, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 0.03%
booking ib yim ncaj lub lim tiam poob rau nws Kev poob ntev tshaj plaws txij li lub Plaub Hlis 1932.

Nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau lub Tsib Hlis 18, Wells Fargo Investment Institute tau hais tias nws tau hloov kho nws cov kev taw qhia txog kev ncaj ncees thiab tus nqi lub hom phiaj rau "tej zaum" kev poob qis, txhim kho cov khoom siv hluav taws xob mus rau "tsis zoo" los ntawm "tsis zoo tshaj plaws." Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau suav tias yog kev tiv thaiv, tsis zoo li cov neeg siv khoom siv kev txiav txim siab, uas Wells Fargo tau txo qis rau "tsis zoo" los ntawm "tsis muaj," raws li kev ceeb toom.

Consumer discretionary
SP500.25,
-1.53%
yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm S&P 500 Performance index hnub Friday, kaw qis dua thiab booking xya lub lim tiam ntawm kev poob qis rau nws qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txij li Lub Xya Hli 1996, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. 

Nyeem: Cov khw muag khoom lag luam woes tsoo cov neeg siv khoom lag luam ETFs raws li S&P 500 ze rau dais lag luam thaj chaw

Nov yog Wells Fargo qhov kev nyiam ntawm kev ncaj ncees, raws li pom hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm Tsib Hlis 18.

'Nco' inflation

Christopher tau hais tias "Kev nce nqi nce mus rau kev yuav khoom," said Christopher. Nws hais tias, "Nws yog nplaum heev," nws yuav nrog peb nyob rau ib ntus, txawm tias tom qab Fed nce nqi." 

Cov txiaj ntsig tsis pom nyob hauv cov txiaj ntsig tau nyiaj tau tshaj tawm los ntawm Walmart Inc.
WMT,
+ 0.11%
thiab Target Corp.
TSO,
+ 1.26%
Lub lim tiam dhau los no tau ua rau cov neeg lag luam txhawj xeeb tias kev nce nqi siab yog crimping cov neeg siv khoom siv, thaum noj rau hauv cov tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los. Shares ntawm Walmart poob ntau dua 19% nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los thiab Lub Hom Phiaj tau poob ib ncig ntawm 29%.

Nyeem: Walmart hais tias cov neeg siv khoom lag luam poob rau cov ntawv ntiag tug rau cov khoom xws li mis nyuj thiab nqaij npuas kib

"Hmoov tsis zoo, cov nqi roj av tau nce mus rau lwm cov ntaub ntawv siab nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis thiab nrog kev nce nqi nce siab thoob plaws ntau pawg, tib neeg tau siv nyiaj ntau dua rau cov khoom tsawg," said Beth Ann Bovino, US tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag ntawm S&P Global Ratings, hauv emailed lus rau lub Tsib Hlis. 17. 

Thaum S&P hloov kho Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev muag khoom hauv lub Plaub Hlis rau kev nce nqi, "kev sib cais txaus ntshai tau tshwm sim nyob rau xyoo tas los, thiab tsuas yog nthuav dav mus txog lub Plaub Hlis," Bovino hais.

Nws tau hais tias "Lub zog yuav khoom tau raug nyem, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov tsev neeg tau nyiaj tsawg," nws hais. "Thaum cov nyiaj khaws cia thaum muaj kev sib kis tau muab cov tsev neeg lub ncoo los nqus cov nqi siab dua, thaum kawg cov buffers no nyias nyias."

Txawm hais tias kev ua lag luam tseem muaj zog, cov ntawv thov tsis muaj haujlwm tshiab hauv Asmeskas lub lim tiam xaus rau lub Tsib Hlis 14 tau nce mus rau plaub lub hlis siab. Christopher tau hais tias Wells Fargo Investment Institute ntseeg tias "kev lag luam me me" yuav pib lig xyoo no. 

Lawv tsis nyob ib leeg.

"Peb txuas ntxiv cia siab tias cov xwm txheej nyiaj txiag nruj tshwm sim los ntawm Fed txoj cai yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis thaum kawg 2023," sau Deutsche Bank cov kws tshuaj ntsuam coj los ntawm tus thawj coj ntawm US tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Matthew Luzzetti, hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb hnub tim 20 Lub Tsib Hlis. lub lim tiam, Asmeskas cov nyiaj txiag tau nruj heev. "

Lub lim tiam tom ntej no, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tau txais cov ntaub ntawv tshiab nyiaj txiag ntawm kev nce nqi, kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov nyiaj tau los pov tseg. Cov Tebchaws Asmeskas daim ntawv qhia nyiaj txiag tseem suav nrog kev nyeem cov kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, Asmeskas kev tsim khoom thiab cov kev pabcuam, thawj zaug thov nyiaj poob haujlwm, thiab feeb los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg. lub rooj sib tham txoj cai kawg.

Cov tub ua lag luam

Thaum cov tub ua lag luam muaj kev ntxhov siab, cov khoom lag luam hauv qab yuav tshwm sim tom qab "kev ntshai muag," thiab qhov kev poob qis tsis ntev los no tau "txiav txim siab," raws li Tastytrade's Kinahan.

S&P 500 tau poob txog 18% xyoo no txog rau hnub Friday, thaum Dow tau poob 14% thiab thev naus laus zis-hnyav Nasdaq Composite tau poob ib ncig ntawm 27%, raws li FactSet.

Nyeem: S&P 500 nqaim averts lub lag luam dais. Lawv kav ntev npaum li cas thaum lawv tuaj txog?

Los ntawm lub lens ntawm bullish investor, dais kev lag luam entail "feral, ntshai, dystopian nqi txiav txim," BofA peev strategists sau nyob rau hauv lawv daim ntawv. "Cov kab xev qhia tau tias muaj kev puas tsuaj loj heev," nrog "kev poob siab nyiaj txiag" ntau tus nqi nrog rau "tus nqi poob siab."

Thaum "kev poob siab poob qis" raug txo qis, "qis yuav raug teeb tsa," cov kws tshaj lij tau sau tseg, hais txog qhov kev xav tsis zoo. 

Kinahan thiab Wells Fargo tus Christopher tau ceeb toom tawm tsam sim ua lub sijhawm ua lag luam, nrog Kinahan piav qhia txog kev sim xaiv hauv qab li "kev ua haujlwm ruam."

Christopher tau hais tias cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem txiav txim siab tso nyiaj me me los ua haujlwm dhau sijhawm raws li kev lag luam poob qis dua tshiab, thiab yuav cov khoom lag luam zoo kom txo qis. "Yog tias koj yog ib tus neeg ua lag luam ntev dua, koj tsis xav rub nyiaj tawm ntawm kev ua lag luam," nws hais.

Nrog rau kev pheej hmoo kev lag luam nce ntxiv, Wells Fargo Investment Institute tau txiav nws lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg rau S&P 500 rau 4,200-4,400 los ntawm 4,500-4,700, nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia. Qhov ntawd yog siab dua qhov ntsuas tau kaw rau hnub Friday ntawm 3,901.