Buffett yuav tsum nyeem tsab ntawv txhua xyoo tsaws hnub Saturday. Yuav xav li cas

Warren Buffett's loyal followers of value investor yog hais txog yuav hnov ​​los ntawm cov lus dab neeg nws tus kheej, nyob rau lub sij hawm tseem ceeb thaum cov paj laum tau nce siab thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag ntshai yog raging.

92-xyoo-laus tus thawj tswj hwm thiab CEO ntawm Berkshire Hathaway tau teem sijhawm los tshaj tawm nws tsab ntawv tshaj tawm txhua xyoo rau hnub Saturday sawv ntxov, nrog rau cov koom nrog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm peb lub hlis twg. Tsab ntawv los ntawm "Oracle of Omaha" tau xav tau kev nyeem ntawv rau cov tub ua lag luam rau ntau xyoo lawm, thiab cov lus tshaj tawm xyoo no tshwj xeeb yog cia siab tias yuav hloov pauv thaj chaw nqis peev.

Qhov tseem ceeb, tau muaj kev hloov pauv dej hiav txwv hauv Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag, uas tau nce mus rau qib siab tshaj txij thaum Kev Cuam Tshuam Nyiaj Txiag Thoob Ntiaj Teb Amid Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov kev txhoj puab heev hikes. Rau lub hlis thiab ib xyoos cov txiaj ntsig tau nce siab tshaj 5% thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2007, thaum lub sijhawm ntsuas 10-xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag nyob qis dua 4%. Tom qab ntau tshaj li kaum xyoo ntawm zero cov paj laum, qhov nce siab hauv cov txiaj ntsig tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov kev thov rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev thiab raug mob cov nqi vaj tse, Buffett tau hais yav dhau los.

"Cov paj laum yog cov cuab yeej cuab tam tus nqi, koj paub, zoo li lub ntiajteb txawj nqus yog rau cov kua," Buffett famously hais ntawm Berkshire lub rooj sib tham txhua xyoo hauv 2013. Nws ntseeg hais tias thaum cov paj laum siab, nws tuaj yeem yog qhov loj "gravitational rub" rau. tus nqi.

"Peb muaj kwv yees li 15-xyoo lub sijhawm ntawm qhov txawv txav thiab keeb kwm qis qis. Cov nqi luv luv uas peb muaj tam sim no yog qhov qub, "said David Kass, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business. "Cov paj laum yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev txiav txim siab ntawm cov nqi sib npaug, hais txog Buffett, yog li kuv xav tias kuv tab tom nrhiav thiab cia siab tias yuav muaj kev sib tham txog cov paj laum."

Tej zaum qhov ntawd tau piav qhia tias vim li cas Berkshire yuav zoo li tus muag khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv lub quarter thib plaub. Lub conglomerate dumped ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm Taiwan semiconductor, chip stock nws nyuam qhuav yuav hauv lub quarter thib peb. Berkshire kuj tau txiav nws cov feem hauv Bank ntawm New York Mellon thiab Teb chaws Asmeskas Bancorp lub hlis tas los.

Lub caij no, ua tsaug rau kev nce nqi, Berkshire lub roob ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab - ze li $ 109 nphom thaum kawg lub Cuaj Hli - tau pab nyiaj tau los muaj txiaj ntsig rau cov koom nrog, uas tuav $ 77.9 billion hauv US Treasury bills.

"Ib qho lus pom Buffett tuaj yeem ua rau hauv nws tsab ntawv yog tias nws tsis mob heev los zaum hauv nyiaj ntsuab. Tam sim no muaj lwm txoj hauv kev thiab nws hu ua Treasury bills, lossis luv luv Treasuries," Kass hais.

Ntxiv deals?

Qhov nce-tus nqi ib puag ncig kuj tuaj yeem muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau Buffett txoj kev lag luam nto moo. Tsis yog vim tias cov khoom vaj khoom tsev poob qis xwb, tab sis vim nws kuj muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo los coj mus rau hauv, hos nws cov neeg sib tw xws li cov tuam txhab kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug yuav tsum tau qiv los ua kev lag luam.

"Kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug thiab lwm tus uas xav txog kev yuav khoom yuav tau mus rau hauv kev lag luam kom qiv [ntawm] cov paj laum siab dua. Qhov no yuav muab kev sib tw kom zoo dua qub rau Berkshire, "Kass hais.

Berkshire yuav lub tuam txhab tuav pov hwm Alleghany rau $ 11.6 nphom hauv nyiaj ntsuab xyoo tas los, nws qhov kev cog lus loj tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2016.

Lub zog loj bets

Buffett txuas ntxiv txhawb nws txoj haujlwm hauv Occidental Petroleum Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los, nrog Berkshire cov ceg txheem ntseeg nyob rau hauv cov roj loj heev topping 21%. Lub yim hli ntuj, Berkshire tau txais kev pom zoo kev tswj hwm mus yuav txog 50%, spurring speculation tias nws yuav nws thiaj li yuav tag nrho ntawm Houston-based Occidental.

Ntau tus xav paub seb Buffett puas muaj kev noj qab haus huv rau qhov tseem ceeb tshaj Occidental shares, muab cov roj thiab roj cov neeg tsim khoom ua haujlwm tsis zoo hauv 2023. Cov khoom lag luam poob qis li 6% xyoo no, ua lag luam qis dua $ 60 tom qab ntau dua ob npaug hauv 2022.

James Shanahan, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas Berkshire ntawm Edward Jones tau hais tias "Nws tau nthuav tawm ntau qhov kev qhuab qhia ntawm no vim nws cuam tshuam txog kev yuav OXY cov koom nrog hauv kev qhib lag luam," said James Shanahan. "Nws tsuas yog ob peb lub sijhawm uas nws siv ntau dua $ 60 ib feem kom tau Occidental Tshuag."

Meanwhile, Chevron tseem tshuav Berkshire qhov kev ncaj ncees thib peb loj tshaj plaws tuav thaum kawg ntawm 2022, tom qab nkaus xwb Kua thiab Bank of America.

Geico qhov tsis muaj zog

Cov tub ua lag luam tseem xav paub txog qhov hloov tshiab ntawm Berkshire cov lag luam kev lag luam hauv lub teeb ntawm kev lag luam poob qis.

Bill Stone, CIO ntawm Glenview Trust thiab Berkshire shareholder hais tias "Raws li tus tswv lag luam, qhov kuv zoo siab tshaj plaws yog qhov hloov tshiab ntawm kev lag luam hauv paus," said Bill Stone, CIO ntawm Glenview Trust thiab tus tswv ntawm Berkshire. "Peb twb tau pom cov lag luam tawm lag luam tawm. Kuv frankly xav paub ntau npaum li cas cov lag luam hauv qab tau ua haujlwm zoo thiab nws qhov kev pom ntawm qhov zoo thiab qhov tsis zoo. "

Berkshire lub tuam txhab kev tuav pov hwm nws pib Geico tau raug kev nyuaj siab tsis ntev los no nrog rau peb lub hlis twg ntawm kev sau nyiaj poob haujlwm.

"Yuav ua li cas (yog tias muaj) kev kho kom raug Berkshire yuav kho qhov teeb meem no? Catherine Seifert, CFRA's Berkshire tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom.

Kev yuav rov qab

Buffett cov neeg saib xyuas tseem tab tom nrhiav nws cov lus tawm tswv yim ntawm kev yuav khoom.

Berkshire lub pace ntawm share repurchases qeeb xyoo tas los, tau yuav tag nrho ntawm $ 5.25 billion dhau qhov kawg ntawm lub quarter thib peb. Qhov ntawd tau qeeb qeeb dua li qhov nrawm hauv xyoo 2021, thaum Berkshire yuav rov qab cov ntaub ntawv $ 27 nphom ntawm nws tus kheej cov khoom lag luam raws li Buffett pom tsawg dua sab nraud hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub ntuj huab cua siab.

Buffett nws tus kheej tau hais rau cov tswv lag luam ntawm nws lub rooj sib tham txhua xyoo xyoo tas los tias nws nyiam yuav cov ceg txheem ntseeg hauv lwm lub tuam txhab es tsis yog rov yuav nws cov shares.

"Yog tias peb muaj kev xaiv ntawm kev yuav cov lag luam uas peb nyiam, lossis yuav cov khoom lag luam rov qab - qhov kev tswj hwm yog peb muaj nyiaj npaum li cas - peb xav yuav cov lag luam," Buffett tau hais rau lub Plaub Hlis hauv Omaha.