(Bloomberg) - Daim duab qhia txog kev puas tsuaj hauv S&P 500. Cov cim qhia ntawm kev txaus siab nyob rau hauv ib qho kev saib xyuas kev xaiv ntsuas. Kev nyeem tsis muaj zog ntawm kev lag luam piling. Tag nrho cov ntawm nws yog pov thawj rau dais tias lub rally nyob rau hauv Tshuag yog sputtering tawm.
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Cov khoom lag luam tau poob rau hnub Wednesday rau hnub ncaj ncaj - thawj zaug uas tau tshwm sim rau xyoo no - raws li cov tub ua lag luam ib zaug ntxiv fretting rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thiab tsuas yog ntau npaum li cas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nce paj paj. Nws yog tag nrho cov khoom noj rau cov bears uas tau ceeb toom tias txawm li cas los xij zoo qhov kev sib tw txog tam sim no xyoo no yuav muaj kev xav - nqa S&P 500 ntau npaum li 4% siab dua - nws tsis zoo li yuav kav ntev.
"Kev lag luam dais zoo li Hall of Mirrors, tsim los ua kom cov tub ua lag luam tsis meej pem thiab coj lawv cov nyiaj," sau Morgan Stanley cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Michael Wilson. "Peb qhia kom nyob twj ywm rau qhov tseem ceeb thiab tsis quav ntsej cov kev xav tsis tseeb."
Lub S&P 500 lub lim tiam no tau tawm tsam nws 200-hnub tsiv nruab nrab ntawm ib ncig ntawm 4,000, tab sis ua tsis tau zoo rau qhov kev sib tw saum toj no ntawm ob hnub sib law liag. Nws yog qhov ntsuas thib tsib ntawm qhov kev sim siab tshaj li xyoo dhau los txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau nws yog qhov ua tau zoo, raws li John Gagliardi ntawm Fidelity Investments.
"Tej zaum zaum thib tsib yuav yog qhov ntxim nyiam, tab sis txhua zaus - plaub qhov kev sim dhau los - tau ua tsis tiav," nws hais rau Bloomberg TV lub lim tiam no. Qhov ntsuas tau xaus rau hnub Wednesday nyob ib ncig ntawm 3,929.
Cov khoom lag luam tau poob rau hnub Wednesday, nrog rau S&P 500 poob 1.6% thiab Nasdaq 100 poob 1.3%. Qhov ntawd tau tshwm sim raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tsis muaj zog rov ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog qhov kev xav ntawm kev loj hlob - kev loj hlob ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam tau poob ntau dua li qhov xav tau lub hli tas los, thiab qhov poob ntawm cov khw muag khoom muag tau tshaj qhov kwv yees. Ntxiv rau, kev lag luam cov cuab yeej tsim khoom tau poob qis, nrog kev poob ntawm lub Hoobkas cov khoom lag luam tau sau lub quarter tsis muaj zog rau kev tsim khoom txij li pib muaj kev sib kis.
Michael O'Rourke, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm JonesTrading tau hais tias "Cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam Asmeskas tsis muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau thiab tab tom tsim kev txhawj xeeb txog Fed cov nyiaj hikes thaum kawg ua rau kev lag luam,"
Bears muaj ntau lwm qhov kev txhawj xeeb los taw qhia, suav nrog Cboe VIX Index - qhov ntsuas kev ntshai - poob qis dua 20 lub lim tiam dhau los, ib yam dab tsi uas yav dhau los tau tshwm sim nrog kev thim rov qab hauv kev sib tw rau cov khoom lag luam. Nws tshwm sim nyob rau hauv plaub qhov ua ntej txij li S&P 500 rout pib ib xyoos dhau los - thawj zaug, lub caij ntuj no, tom qab lub Plaub Hlis, Lub Yim Hli thiab Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Thaum VIX kev lag luam nyob rau nruab nrab-20s tau poob nthav tshwm sim thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo raws li dej ntws tawm. Cov khoom lag luam tsis muaj zog rau qhov xav tau kev tiv thaiv thiab khaws cov kev xav hauv kev txheeb xyuas, qhov poob qis hauv qab lub hlwb tseem ceeb 20 kab tau qhia tias kev txaus siab tau dhau mus lawm. Qhov ntsuas tau ua tiav hnub Wednesday saum 20.
Shawn Cruz, tus thawj coj lag luam tawm tswv yim ntawm TD Ameritrade tau hais tias "Nws zoo li tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau lub lim tiam. "Muaj txoj hauv kev ntev mus ua ntej peb tuaj yeem hais tias kev pheej hmoo siab tau tig mus."
Leveraged pauv-ua lag luam cov nyiaj tau hais txog qhov kev poob siab tsis txaus ntseeg ib yam. Ntau tshaj $ 600 lab tawm ntawm ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (ticker TQQQ) - uas taug qab triple qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 - lub lim tiam dhau los hauv qhov kev tshem tawm loj tshaj plaws txij li thaum lig 2021, Bloomberg cov ntaub ntawv qhia. Nyob rau sab nraud ntawm kev lag luam, ProShares UltraPro Luv QQQ ETF (SQQQ) - uas muab kev cuam tshuam rau peb zaug ntawm qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm qhov ntsuas thev naus laus zis hnyav - absorbed ze li $ 600 lab hauv nws qhov loj tshaj txhua lub limtiam influx txij thaum Lub Yim Hli.
Morgan Stanley's Wilson tab tom saib kev sib kis ntawm nws lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj khwv tau los thiab kev pom zoo rau kev kwv yees, uas nws hais tias yog ze li ob npaug ntawm qhov nws tau ua. Nws "qhia txog qhov kev poob qis hauv cov khoom lag luam uas feem ntau tsis tau npaj," nws pab neeg tau sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv. Tus neeg ua txhaum loj, nws tau hais tias, yog qhov kev nce nyiaj nce siab ib puag ncig uas tuaj yeem "ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj" nrog cov txiaj ntsig tau txiaj ntsig. Lawv tau hais tias "Peb qhov kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo ntawm kev siv thesis tseem tsis txaus siab thiab yuav muaj feem cuam tshuam ntau tus neeg saib xyuas txij li lub caij khwv tau los no," lawv hais.
Hnub Friday, S&P 500 tau kaw saum nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab tab sis ua tsis tiav. Thiab kom txog rau thaum nws tuaj yeem muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj qhov tseem ceeb no, cov kws tshaj lij yuav tsis txaus siab tias qhov kev sim zaum kawg tuaj yeem yog lwm qhov kev sib tw ua tsis tiav, sau Bespoke Investment Group cov tswv yim hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub lim tiam no.
Muaj ob yam tseem ceeb rau tam sim no 200-hnub txav nruab nrab, raws li Matt Maley, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm Miller Tabak + Co. Rau ib qho, 4,000 qib yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm kev puas siab puas ntsws. Qhov thib ob, nws tseem nyob ib puag ncig qhov twg txoj kab sib txawv los ntawm 2022 txhua lub sijhawm highs converges.
"Lawv tag nrho ntsib nyob ib ncig ntawm 4,000, yog li nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb heev rau theem kev," nws hais hauv kev xam phaj. "Yog tias nws tsis tuaj yeem sau nws tus kheej hauv ob peb hnub tom ntej thiab tawg saum nws, nws yuav muaj teeb meem."
Keith Lerner, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm Truist Wealth, hais tias nws tab tom saib 4,100 qib raws li qhov ntsuas tseem ceeb nyob ze.
"Yog tias koj muaj peev xwm ua tau siab tshaj qhov ntawd, kuv xav tias cov kev hloov pauv yuav zoo dua," nws hais hauv qhov kev tshwm sim tom ntej ntawm Bloomberg's "Dab Tsi Mus Ntxiv" podcast. "Tab sis tam sim no, peb tau ua tsis tiav."
-Nrog kev pab los ntawm Elena Popina thiab Michael P. Regan.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bruised-stock-bears-bust-charts-211412496.html