Kev nce nqi ntawm kev yuav tsev tau txias rau lub lag luam xyoo no. Nyob rau hauv ib txoj kev ncig, hnub Friday cov haujlwm tshaj tawm yuav ntxiv rau cov kev pheej yig hauv tsev hauv lub sijhawm luv luv.
Tom qab ib xyoos ntawm kev nce siab sai, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau teem rau "kuaj qhov siab tshiab" tom qab hnub Friday txoj haujlwm tshaj tawm, Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors 'tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag, tau hais hauv nqe lus.
Qhov kev sib txuas ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev yuav tsev thiab lub zog ntawm kev ua lag luam yuav tsis pom tseeb tam sim ntawd, tab sis nws los txog rau ib qho tseem ceeb uas tau cuam tshuam qhov kev hloov pauv tsis ntev los no hauv cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj: Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tiv thaiv kev nce nqi.
Kev cia siab ntawm Fed ntau dua tau xa 10-xyoo Treasury yields, uas cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj feem ntau txav mus, siab dua xyoo no. Qhov nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm 30-xyoo qiv tsev qiv tau nce ntxiv, tsis ntev los no ncav cuag lawv tus nqi siab tshaj hauv 15 xyoo ua ntej rub rov qab me ntsis lub lim tiam no, raws li Freddie Mac.
Qhov ntawd yog ib txoj hauv kev uas hais txog nyiaj txiag, xws li Hnub Friday txoj haujlwm tshaj tawm, cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam vaj tsev. Treasury yields tau txais nyob rau hauv lub wake ntawm hnub Friday tsab ntawv ceeb toom raws li kev lag luam txhais qhov kev tso tawm raws li ib tug kos npe rau hais tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nyob twj ywm aggression nyob rau hauv combating inflation.
Tib yam uas tsav Cov Nyiaj Txiag siab dua yuav muaj feem cuam tshuam rau cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj. Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj "yuav sim 7% thiab nyob rau theem no ib ntus, tej zaum yuav yog ib lub hlis, ua ntej tawg qis rau 6.5% lossis siab dua mus rau 8%," Yun tau sau hauv nqe lus rau Barron tus. "Kev taw qhia yuav nyob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tshiab tuaj."
Xyoo no nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau ntxiv qhov tseem ceeb rau tus nqi ntawm kev yuav tsev: tus neeg yuav khoom ntawm $ 400,000 lub tsev nyob rau lub lim tiam no qhov nruab nrab 30 xyoo tas li yuav tshuav kwv yees li $ 690 ntau hauv ib hlis tshaj li xyoo 2021 vim qhov nce nqi tsev. Ntawm 7%, xws li kev yuav khoom yuav raug nqi kwv yees li $ 760 ntau dua thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los, Barron tus yav dhau los qhia.
Cov nqi siab dua muaj slowed lub lag luam vaj tse los ntawm nws yav dhau los-frenzied pandemic pace thiab softened nqi. Cov nqi tsev hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas zoo li yuav poob 8% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj mus rau trough vim qhov kev cia siab siab dua rau cov paj laum nyob ze, Capital Economics tau sau rau hnub Friday.
"Txawm hais tias lawv tau lees paub los yog tsis lees paub, cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tam sim no lees paub tias kev lag luam kev lag luam thiab vaj tse poob qis yog tus nqi tsim nyog them kom tau txais cov neeg siv khoom nce nqi rov qab los tswj," sau Capital Economics 'Vicky Redwood. "Txawm li cas los xij, ib zaug kev nce nyiaj poob qis, tom qab ntawd cov nqi tsev poob yuav yog ib qho laj thawj vim li cas cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab yuav hloov lawv cov kev xav sai sai rau kev txiav cov paj laum," Redwood sau. Nws hais ntxiv tias cov nqi tuaj yeem nqis los hauv Asmeskas thaum kawg ntawm 2023.
Mike Fratantoni, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag, hais tias nws cia siab tias cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav poob qis dua 6% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo vim tias Asmeskas thiab kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob qis. Fratantoni hais tias "Peb qhov kev xav yog tias peb nyob rau qhov siab tshaj tam sim no," Nws tau hais tias "Kev sib sau ua pov thawj ntawm kev poob qis zoo nkauj thaum ntxov xyoo tom ntej, kuv xav tias, yuav muaj feem yuav txwv ntau npaum li cas cov nqi qiv nyiaj yuav nce ntxiv," nws hais.
Thaum cov ntawv ceeb toom nyiaj txiag tseem yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv cov nqi qiv nyiaj 'kev txav, lawv tsis yog tib yam uas ua rau cov nqi qiv nyiaj. Fratantoni hais tias 30-xyoo ruaj khov tus nqi yog kwv yees li peb feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua 10-xyoo Treasury yield tam sim no, qhov sib txawv ntau dua li qub, hais Fratantoni.
Qee qhov kev sib kis no yog vim lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj tshuav nyiaj li cas, raws li kev lag luam cia siab tias Fed yuav tsum tau muag cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj rov qab uas nws tau yuav, Fratantoni hais. Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau hais tom qab lub hli tas los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Sib Tham hais tias cov no kev muag khoom tsis nyob ntawm lub rooj txhua sij hawm sai sai.
Fratantoni hais ntxiv tias "Tab sis qhov kev nthuav dav no kuj tseem cuam tshuam txog kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tsis txaus ntseeg tam sim no,"
Sau ntawv rau Shaina Mishkin ntawm [email tiv thaiv]