Bonds hais tias kev nce nqi tau nce siab, tab sis ntawm no yog qhov Cathie Wood hais tias lub khw lag luam yuav tsum tau hnov ​​​​txog qhov kev sib tw ncaj ncees

Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.76%
poob 2.9%, S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.76%
yog tawm 2.5% thiab tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-0.96%
yog poob ntau dua 2% nyob rau hauv lub hnub so-abbreviated trading lub lim tiam uas pom ib co gloominess nti deb ntawm nyuaj-tawm xyoo-rau-hnub nce.

Txawm hais tias Nasdaq nce 3.7%, S&P 500 tau nce 1.6% thiab xiav-chip Dow tau nce 0.5% hauv 2023, Wood tau hais rau hnub Thursday muaj qhov tseem ceeb uas yuav tuav cov tub ua lag luam thiab kev lag luam.

Yog, nws yog Fed. Tab sis tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, nws yog qhov Fed tsis tau hais, Wood tau sib cav.

Tsoomfwv Meskas lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau thawb tus nqi paj laum nyob rau hauv kev mob siab rau quash inflation, uas nyob rau hauv lem tau quelled lub purchase ntawm speculative cuab tam.

Thiab txawm hais tias muaj cov cim qhia tias kev nce nyiaj yuav ruaj khov, yog tias tsis thim rov qab, Wood tau hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau hnov ​​​​Fed hais tias nws yuav tsum tsis txhob tsav tsheb ntau dua.

Tus tsim ARK Invest tau hais tias kev thim rov qab, ntau dua li qhov nce ntawm cov paj laum, sawv cev rau kev nce nqi qiv, qhia tias kev lag luam tau twv tias kev nce nqi yog, qhov tseeb, raug tswj kom txaus.

Tseeb, Asmeskas cov nqi lag luam wholesale poob 0.5% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, cim qhov poob loj tshaj plaws txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2020, thaum Asmeskas kev lag luam thawj zaug raug kev txom nyem los ntawm COVID kis thoob qhov txhia chaw.

Kev poob qis hauv kev nce nqi feem ntau yog vim tias poob nqi ntawm cov zaub mov thiab roj av, tab sis tus swb underscored loj hlob pov thawj ntawm inflation lub retrenchment.

Fed tab tom sim ua kom muaj kev nce nyiaj nce txhua xyoo mus rau theem ua ntej kev sib kis ntawm 2% los ntawm kev nce cov paj laum, uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis.

Bond yields, uas poob raws li tus nqi nce, tau ua raws li yog tias Fed tej zaum yuav npaj los xaus nws tus nqi nce. Cov txiaj ntsig zoo li nce siab thaum cov tub ua lag luam muag cov nuj nqis thiab cov nqi poob rau hauv kev cia siab ntawm cov nqi siab dua ntawm Cov Nyiaj Txiag Tshiab tau tshaj tawm.

Txog tam sim no xyoo no, yields tau poob - es tsis txhob nce.

Wood tau hais rau hnub Thursday thaum lub rooj sib tham hauv peb lub hlis twg uas muaj rau cov thwjtim thiab cov tub ua lag luam ntawm nws ARK Invest suite ntawm cov nyiaj.

Wood hais tias, "Zoo li thaum ntxov 80s, kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav tsum tau hnov ​​​​Fed hais tias nws yog qhov qhia txog qhov kawg ntawm cov paj laum nce," Wood tau hais, hais txog kev nce nqi. ncov nyob ib ncig ntawm 40 xyoo siab, qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li thaum ntxov 1980s.  

Qhov kev txhim kho kev nce nqi nce siab tuaj yeem txhais tau rau kev teeb tsa zoo dua rau kev sib tw ARK, thiab nws cov peev txheej ARK Innovation fund.

Ntoo cov nyiaj pauv hloov pauv tau yog ib qho kev nyiam ntawm cov kev xav tom qab-COVID-19 boom ntawm Wall Street. Lub ARK Innovation
ARKK,
-3.23%
cov nyiaj tau nce ib ncig 150% Thaum lub sij hawm 2020 thiab tau pab hlawv Wood lub koob npe nrov, tab sis qhov nce sai ntawm cov paj laum tau pab txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhim kho kev lag luam. ARK Innovation xaus 2022 nqis ze li ntawm 67% tom qab poob 24% hauv 2021.

Txawm li cas los xij, cov peev nyiaj tseem ceeb yog tam sim no txaus siab rau pop, nce ntau dua 11% xyoo rau hnub tim.

Ntoo tau kwv yees tias Teb Chaws Asmeskas tej zaum yuav muaj kev lag luam poob qis thiab cov qib uas tus nqi paj laum (nce 18-fold, nws kwv yees) yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua li qhov nce ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob, uas cov kws lag luam xa mus rau tus nqi davhlau ya nyob twg.

"Kuv xav tias qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov paj laum tseem ceeb dua li qib," nws hais. Tseemfwv cov peev nyiaj tam sim no sawv ntawm thaj tsam ntawm 4.25% thiab 4.50%, tom qab ze li 0% thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis loj hauv 2020.

Kom paub meej, Fed tej zaum yuav tsis kam ua ib qho kev hloov pauv rau nws txoj cai tam sim no.

Hnub Thursday, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Tus Lwm Thawj Coj Lael Brainard, yog ib qho ntawm cov dovish tshaj plaws ntawm cov thawj tswj hwm hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, tau tham txog qhov yuav tsum tau khaws cov paj laum siab.

"Txawm hais tias muaj kev hloov pauv tsis ntev los no, kev nce nqi tseem nce siab, thiab txoj cai yuav tsum muaj kev txwv txaus rau qee lub sijhawm kom paub tseeb tias kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau 2% raws li kev txhawb nqa," Brainard tau hais hauv kev hais lus ntawm University of Chicago Booth Tsev Kawm Ntawv Kev Lag Luam. .