(Bloomberg) - Tebchaws Asmeskas kev xav txog kev ncaj ncees nyob ruaj khov nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli txawm tias S&P 500 Index raug kev poob qis tshaj plaws nyob rau ib hlis txij li qhov tob ntawm tus kabmob kis kabmob kis thoob plaws lub Peb Hlis 2020, raws li ib pawg kws tshaj lij ntawm Bank of America Corp. coj los ntawm Savita Subramanian.
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BofA's Sell Side Indicator, uas taug qab Wall Street txoj kev xav rau Asmeskas cov peev txheej txhua hli raws li cov lus pom zoo ntawm kev faib nyiaj rau lub txhab nyiaj thiab Bloomberg, yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv lub Cuaj Hli ntawm 53.6% txawm tias 9% muag tawm hauv S&P 500.
Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kos npe tias tsis muaj "tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam tag nrho ntawm Wall Street tseem," Subramanian tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Monday. Txawm hais tias Wall Street tau pom zoo faib nyiaj rau cov nyiaj ntsuab tau nce 0.9 feem pua cov ntsiab lus mus rau 3.7% xyoo no, nws tseem nyob deb ntawm 10.5% theem ntawm xyoo 2006 thiab 2007.
Qhov ntsuas tau ua qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tsis sib haum rau lub sijhawm, raws li Subramanian. "Hauv lwm lo lus, nws tau yog lub teeb liab siab thaum Wall Street cov kws tshaj lij tau poob qis heev, thiab rov ua dua," daim ntawv hais.
Keeb kwm, thaum qhov ntsuas tau nyob rau theem tam sim no lossis qis dua, qhov ntsuas ntsuas qhov ntsuas tom qab rov qab los ntawm 12 lub hlis tom ntej tau zoo 96% ntawm lub sijhawm, nrog qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 21%, BofA cov ntaub ntawv qhia.
Thaum lub tsev txhab nyiaj qhov taw qhia tam sim no nyob rau hauv "nruab nrab" thaj chaw, qhov kev kwv yees tsawg dua, nws tseem nyob ze rau "yuav" dua li "muag" rau ib hlis thib tsib.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov txuj ci tseem ceeb yuav xav tau ua ntej S&P 500 tuaj yeem ua tau tiag tiag hauv qab, raws li BofA tus kws tshaj lij kws tshaj lij Stephen Suttmeier. Txawm hais tias Asmeskas kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees feem ntau tig bullish nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm ib nrab xyoo kev xaiv tsa, capitulation tseem tsis pom nyob rau hauv qhov sib npaug sib npaug sib npaug thiab S&P 500 muag ntim.
Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau ceeb toom rau "kev kub ntxhov" hauv kev muag ntim, Suttmeier tau sau ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Friday. S&P 500's Volume Intensity Model (VIM) Distribution, uas ntsuas qis lossis muag ntim, tau nce siab txij li nruab nrab Lub Yim Hli mus txog 66.4, lees paub "Lub Yim Hli mus rau Lub Kaum Hli kho rau SPX," BofA cov ntaub ntawv qhia.
"Tab sis qhov tsis sib xws ntawm kev ntxhov siab tsis txaus ntseeg siab tshaj lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2021 thiab Lub Peb Hlis 2022 peaks ze 72-73 yuav xav tau los ua kom muaj zog" lub khw hauv qab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias S&P 500 txuas ntxiv txo qis rau lub Rau Hli intraday qis ntawm 3,636 thaum Lub Kaum Hli, nws hais.
Tsis tas li ntawd, 5-hnub thiab 25-hnub Cboe qhov sib npaug sib npaug ntawm qhov sib npaug "tej zaum yuav xav tau nce siab tshaj 1.2 thiab 1.1, raws li txoj cai," rau kev ruaj ntseg S&P 500 qis, Suttmeier piav qhia. Tam sim no, qhov sib piv yog 1.09 rau 25-hnub thiab 1.07 rau 5-hnub.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-subramanian-says-wall-street-174146735.html