Hauv nws 53 xyoo hauv lub ntiaj teb kev nqis peev, Howard Marks - tus billionaire thiab co-founder ntawm Oaktree Capital Management - hais tias nws tsuas pom ob qhov kev hloov pauv tiag tiag hauv kev nqis peev, txog tam sim no.
"Kuv tau pom ntau lub voj voog kev lag luam, pendulum swings, manias thiab ceeb, npuas thiab kev sib tsoo, tab sis kuv nco ntsoov tsuas yog ob qho kev hloov dej hiav txwv tiag tiag," Marks tau sau rau hauv memo luam tawm hnub Tuesday. "Kuv xav tias peb yuav nyob hauv nruab nrab ntawm ib feem peb hnub no."
Thawj qhov kev hloov pauv, nyob rau xyoo 1970, yog "kev txais yuav tus neeg ua lag luam tshiab," raws li nws tau hais tseg, kom muaj kev pheej hmoo. Marks tau hais tias qhov kev hloov pauv tau coj mus rau hom kev nqis peev tshiab xws li cov nuj nqis nyuaj, qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj rov qab, qiv nyiaj qiv, thiab qiv nyiaj ntiag tug.
Cov cim tau lees paub tias kev hloov pauv hauv hiav txwv thaum nws tau tshwm sim, thiab nws tau xaiv los nqis peev hauv cov ntawv cog lus ntawm "America cov tuam txhab pheej hmoo tshaj plaws," thiab tau nyiaj "tsis tu ncua thiab nyab xeeb."
Marks tau sau tias "Nws tsis yog qhov ua rau hais tias niaj hnub no kev nqis peev hauv ntiaj teb yuav luag tsis zoo ib yam li 50 xyoo dhau los," Marks tau sau. "Cov tub ntxhais hluas koom nrog kev lag luam niaj hnub no yuav xav tsis thoob thaum kawm tias, rov qab los, cov tub ua lag luam tsis xav txog qhov pheej hmoo / rov qab los. Tam sim no yog txhua yam peb ua. Yog lawm, kev hloov dej hiav txwv. "
Qhov kev hloov pauv thib ob tuaj rau xyoo 1980s. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, coj los ntawm Paul Volcker, tau tsa tsoomfwv cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj rau 20% kom txo qis nyiaj txiag uas tau nce mus rau 13.5% vim tias muaj kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi roj uas ua rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom nce thiab "ua rau muaj kev nce nqi sai," nws hais. . Peb xyoos tom qab kev nce nqi tau nqis mus rau 3.2%. Nrog rau qhov kev vam meej, Fed maj mam txo cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tseemfwv qib siab - ua rau "kev poob qis-nyiaj-tus nqi ib puag ncig uas muaj plaub xyoos."
Cov tub lag luam ua tiav 40 xyoo dhau los no feem ntau yog vim cov paj laum qis, Marks tau hais tias, vim tias lawv tau ua rau lub sijhawm pheej yig thiab nyiaj yooj yim. Bank of America tau piav txog qhov ib puag ncig ntawd "aberration," es tsis sau npe tias yog ib qho tshiab.
"Ob xyoo dhau los ntawm '2%' kev nce nqi, kev loj hlob, thiab cov nyiaj ua haujlwm tau xaus nrog kev thim rov qab mus rau lub sijhawm ntev, "BofA cov kws tshuaj ntsuam yav dhau los tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv tshawb fawb.
Cov paj laum tau poob qis txhua lub sijhawm hauv xyoo 2008 tom qab Fed tau txiav cov nyiaj hauv tsoomfwv qib siab mus rau xoom hauv kev sim cawm kev lag luam los ntawm Great Financial Crisis. Txij xyoo 2009 txog 2020, thaum muaj tus kabmob kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, "Tebchaws Asmeskas nyiam nws txoj kev lag luam ntev tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm," Marks tau hais.
Thaum lub sij hawm muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj, Oaktree tau nqis peev ntau txhiab daus las hauv cov nuj nqis los yuav cov khoom muaj kev ntxhov siab - thiab nws cov tub ua lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm lub tuam txhab lees paub lub sijhawm raws li cov nuj nqis boomed.
Tab sis lub sijhawm ntawd tau xaus rau xyoo no, nrog kev nce nqi siab thiab cov paj laum siab dua. Xyoo-rau-xyoo Asmeskas kev nce nqi nce mus txog plaub-xyoos siab ntawm 9.1% hauv Lub Rau Hli ua ntej qeeb mus rau 7.1% hauv Kaum Ib Hlis. Nws tau tsav Fed kom nce cov paj laum xya zaus rau xyoo no, thawb tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 4.25% mus rau 4.5%.
Pessimism tau dhau qhov kev cia siab, Marks tau hais tias, thiab kev nce nqi thiab cov paj laum yog "zoo li yuav nyob twj ywm qhov kev txiav txim siab tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau ib puag ncig kev nqis peev rau ntau xyoo tom ntej."
Marks tau sau tias "Peb tau mus los ntawm lub ntiaj teb qis rov qab los ntawm 2009-21 mus rau lub ntiaj teb puv puv, thiab nws yuav dhau los ua ntau dua nyob rau lub sijhawm ze," Marks sau.
Thiab qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem tau txais "cov khoom lag luam rov qab" yam tsis tas yuav tso siab rau ntau qhov kev nqis peev uas pheej yig dua, uas tuaj yeem txhais tau tias muaj peev xwm zoo dua rau cov qiv nyiaj thiab cov neeg yos hav zoov. Tab sis cov tswv yim peev uas ua haujlwm tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv 40 xyoo dhau los yuav tsis ua tau zoo nyob rau xyoo tom ntej - "qhov no yog kev hloov dej hiav txwv uas kuv tab tom hais txog," Marks sau.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune: Rishi Sunak tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag qub tau them nws tus kheej $ 1.9 lab ib hnub rau xyoo no Ntsib tus kws qhia ntawv hnub nyoog 29 xyoo nrog plaub qib uas xav koom nrog Great Resignation Koj yuav tau nyiaj npaum li cas los yuav tsev $400,000 Elon Musk 'xav punch' Kanye West tom qab pom tus rapper swastika tweet ib qho 'incitement rau kev ua phem'
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-howard-marks-says-investors-193137245.html