(Bloomberg) - Ib qho kev puas tsuaj rau bulls, kev poob qis hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam nyob rau hauv qee qhov kev hwm tau yuav luag ntxhi rau lwm sab ntawm kev lag luam.
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Qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm luv luv tau ua rau hnub Tuesday raws li Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pob tawb ntawm cov khoom uas nyiam tshaj plaws tau nce ntau dua 4%, tudling bears nrog poob. Thaum S&P 500 tau hloov pauv ntawm qhov nce thiab poob rau xyoo 2023, txhua hnub tau dhau los ua qhov kev sib tham dhau los, uas ua rau tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig uas ua rau lub lag luam pib zoo tshaj plaws rau ib xyoos txij li xyoo 2019.
Xws li ib tug bounce, tsaws txoj cai tom qab hedge funds siv lub Kaum Ob Hlis nce bearish txoj hauj lwm thiab cov khw muag khoom lag luam pov tseg cov stocks nyob rau hauv droves, yog ib tug tshuaj rau mob ua si tawm nyob rau hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los. Skeptics tau txais lawv qhov kev txiav txim siab los ntawm dais-kev lag luam rallies ntawm ib tug scale yuav luag tsis muaj precedents. Thaum S&P 500 pom ntau hnub tsawg dua li qhov qub hauv 2022, thaum qhov ntsuas tau tswj kom rov zoo, nws tau ua phem heev. Nce qhov nruab nrab 1.15%, qhov ntsuas qhov nce ntawm qhov kev sib tham zoo yog qhov loj tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1938.
"Muaj FOMO cov ntsiab lus ntawm no nrog cov tub ua lag luam uas txhawj xeeb txog kev raug ntes tau ua txhaum cai yog tias cov khoom lag luam pib ntawm qhov kev sib tw ruaj khov," said Adam Phillips, tus thawj coj ntawm cov tswv yim lag luam ntawm EP Wealth Advisors. "Txhua tus paub tias kev sib tw ua lag luam muaj ntau, tab sis nws tuaj yeem nyuaj rau qee tus kom nco qab tias tam sim no."
Cov hnub tau loj npaum li lawv tsis tshua muaj. S&P 500 tau siv 43% ntawm xyoo tas los cov kev sib tham hauv ntsuab - tom qab tag nrho tab sis ib xyoos txij li xyoo 1941. Los ntawm kev sib piv, cov hnub poob nce, ua kom zoo ib xyoos thaum qhov ntsuas tau nce 19.4%. Tab sis cov neeg tsis ntseeg tau yuav tsum tau tiv nrog cov kev tawm tsam kev nce qib ntau zaus.
Thaum cov hnub nce thiab nqis tau sib npaug sib npaug rau xyoo tshiab, S&P 500 tau nce 1.3% nyob rau nruab nrab ntawm peb qhov kev sib tham zoo, ntau dua ob npaug ntawm qhov loj ntawm nws qhov kev txav thaum nws poob. Txog li 2%, qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas rov qab yog qhov thib peb-zoo tshaj plaws kom deb li deb mus rau ib xyoos hauv kaum xyoo dhau los.
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Qhov kev rov qab los tshiab kawg tuaj tom qab cov neeg siv nyiaj hedge tau taug qab los ntawm JPMorgan Chase & Co. txiav lawv cov peev txheej nruab nrab mus rau qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 2017. Lub caij no, cov neeg lag luam tau pov tseg ntau dua $ 3 nphom ntawm cov khoom hauv lub lis piam mus txog hnub Tuesday, qhov muag thib peb loj tshaj plaws. nyob rau hauv keeb kwm ntawm JPMorgan cov ntaub ntawv lag luam thoob plaws.
Kev nce qib ua ntej ntawm kev ua lag luam lub lim tiam no yog cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis thiab Nasdaq 100 tau nce siab rau peb qhov kev sib tw ncaj nraim, qhov kev sib tw ntev tshaj plaws hauv ob lub hlis.
Kev txhawb siab nyob rau hauv kev coj noj coj ua tech, yog tias txuas ntxiv, yuav yog cov xov xwm tsis zoo rau cov neeg uas tau zam kev lag luam tom qab ib zaug-lauded cov khoom lag luam poob rau lub ntiaj teb hauv 2022. Thaum kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis, cov nyiaj tiv thaiv tau taug qab los ntawm Morgan Stanley pom lawv cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis poob. mus rau peb xyoos qis.
Kev txhawb nqa lub xyoo tshiab kev ncaj ncees bounce yog qhov poob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nyiaj poob qis, raws li Mark Freeman, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Socorro Asset Management LP. Nrog cov nyiaj tau txais kev xav tau poob qis, nws hais tias, bears yuav nrhiav tau lub sijhawm los pounce dua txawm tias muaj kev sib tw nyob ze.
Nws tau hais tias "Tseem muaj qee qhov tseem ceeb ntawm lub taub hau ntsib kev lag luam, feem ntau yog dab tsi tshwm sim ntawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los, tab sis ntawm cov npoo npoo tau ntsib kev sib ntaus sib tua hnyav dua," nws hais. "Qhov tseeb luv luv nthuav dav qhov kev txav mus los tab sis cov luv luv tom qab ntawd tsuas yog rov pib dua ntawm qib siab dua thiab kev poob siab rov pib dua."
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