Tech thiab kev loj hlob-focused stocks muaj dominated kev lag luam rau ntau tshaj kaum xyoo, tab sis "kev hloov pauv" tab tom los raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nce tus nqi paj los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, raws li Steve Eisman, tus thawj coj loj ntawm Neuberger Berman Group. Eisman tau muaj koob meej rau nws qhov kev vam meej thawj koom ruam tawm tsam subprime mortgages nyob rau hauv kev coj mus rau Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ntawm 2008, uas tau piav qhia hauv Michael Lewis phau ntawv 2010, Lub Luv Luv, thiab cov yeeb yaj kiab tom qab ntawm tib lub npe, uas tus cwj pwm zoo li nws tau ua si los ntawm Steve Carell.
"Kev ua lag luam muaj lub sijhawm ntev ntawm kev coj ua uas qee pawg yog cov thawj coj," tus kws pab nyiaj txiag hais rau Bloomberg hauv ib ntu ntawm lub Ntau Yam Tsis Txaus podcast hnub Monday. “Qee lub sij hawm cov kev coj cwj pwm no hloov hnyav, thiab qee zaum cov kev coj cwj pwm no hloov mus rau lub sijhawm, vim tib neeg tsis tso lawv txoj kev xav tau yooj yim. Thiab kuv xav tias peb tab tom mus dhau ib lub sijhawm, tej zaum, zoo li qhov ntawd dua. " Eisman tau taw qhia rau Thomas Kuhn phau ntawv xyoo 1962, Tus qauv ntawm Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Tshawb Fawb, raws li cov pov thawj tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem ua rau qis dua, tab sis tsis hloov pauv hloov pauv.
"Thaum Einstein tsim nws txoj kev xav ntawm kev sib raug zoo, piv txwv li ...Nws tsis zoo li txhua tus hais tias, 'Auj, peb tau tos Einstein, ua Vajtswv tsaug, tam sim no peb tuaj yeem tshem tawm Newton.' Nws tau siv ntau xyoo rau tib neeg kom paub tias qhov ntawd yog qhov kev xav zoo dua. Kuv xav tias tej yam zoo li ntawd tshwm sim hauv khw, ”nws hais. "Paradigms yog qhov tob tob hauv tib neeg lub hlwb lawv tsis tuaj yeem xav txog, qee zaum, uas tuaj yeem muaj lwm yam."
Tom qab xyoo ntawm kev nce qib tech stocks thiab cryptocurrencies, George Ball, tus thawj coj ntawm Sanders Morris Harris, lub tuam txhab peev hauv Houston, hais rau Fortune nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis uas nws kuj xav tias yuav muaj kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam xyoo no vim tias cov tub ua lag luam coj txoj hauv kev zoo dua qub.
"Kuv xav tias qee zaus koj tau txais kev hloov pauv ntawm kev nqis peev thiab kev lag luam hnub nyoog, thiab peb nyob ntawm ib qho ntawm cov tam sim no tom qab ntau tshaj kaum xyoo ntawm cov paj laum zero," nws hais. "Lub sijhawm ntawm kev zoo siab yuav tsum tau ua raws li lub sijhawm ntawm abstinence."
Qhov qub thiab tshiab
Nrog rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tuav cov paj laum ze ze rau ntau xyoo tom qab muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj thiab thaum lub sij hawm COVID-19 muaj thoob qhov txhia chaw, tech thiab kev loj hlob stocks outperformed tag nrho cov lag luam.
Cov nqi qiv qis tau tso cai rau cov tuam txhab no tuaj yeem nqis peev hauv cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob, thiab a tsis muaj lwm txoj hau kev Eisman tau hais rau cov peev txheej vim cov nqi qis txhais tau tias cov tub ua lag luam "yuav tsum tau them nyiaj rau kev pheej hmoo" thiab nqis peev rau lawv, Eisman tau hais. Ntxiv rau qhov ntawd, ntau tus neeg ua lag luam tau raug kev txom nyem los ntawm "Amazon kab mob, "raws li tus kws pab nyiaj txiag. Los ntawm qhov no nws txhais tau hais tias kev vam meej ntawm cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis zoo li Amazon - qee qhov uas tsis muaj txiaj ntsig tau ntau xyoo ua ntej lawv cov khoom lag luam nce siab - ua rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev xav txog kev nqis peev hauv kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv kaum xyoo dhau los.
"Los ntawm 2010 txog rau thaum pib ntawm 2022, yog tias koj yog ib lub tuam txhab uas tsis muaj nyiaj khwv tau los tab sis muaj zog cov nyiaj tau los, cov neeg ua npau suav npau suav," Eisman hais tias, sib cav hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yeej ib txwm nrhiav rau tom ntej Amazon, thiab feem ntau tsis quav ntsej cov ntsiab lus hauv cov txheej txheem. . Tab sis tam sim no, nrog cov nqi nce, Eisman tau hais tias nws ntseeg tias cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab tam sim no qeeb, thiab lub sijhawm tshiab tab tom los rau cov tub ua lag luam.
Nws tau piav qhia txog yuav ua li cas cov thawj coj ua lag luam yav dhau los tau dhau los thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam yav dhau los hloov pauv zoo li qhov tshwm sim tam sim no, sau tseg tias cov nyiaj txiag cov khoom lag luam uas tau ua tiav ua ntej xyoo 2008, "cia ua dab tsi txog 2020."
Nws tau hais tias "Hu rau kaum xyoo uas pawg thawj coj qub tau ploj mus," nws hais.
Tus neeg saib xyuas nyiaj txiag tau hais ntxiv tias qhov nce ntawm kev loj hlob thiab cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis uas yog cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam pib lub xyoo yog ib qho piv txwv ntawm yuav ua li cas "cov tib neeg tsis txhob tso tseg yooj yim." The tech-heavy Nasdaq yog nce ntau dua 13% xyoo rau hnub tim, thiab Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF-uas tsom mus rau cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis thiab kev loj hlob thiab tau dhau los ua ib qho tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam thaum muaj kev sib kis-tau nce ntau dua 37%. Eisman ceeb toom tias qhov no tuaj yeem yog "qhov kawg hurrah" rau cov khoom lag luam no, tab sis ntxiv tias nws nyob ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve.
"[Federal Reserve Chair Jerome] Powell tau hais tias nws yuav ua kom nce nqi, thiab cov kab lus tseem ceeb yog, 'thiab nws yuav tawm hauv lawv mus.' Yog tias nws tawm hauv lawv mus, kuv xav tias peb yuav muaj kev hloov pauv. Yog tias nws txiav dua, peb yuav rov qab mus rau qhov chaw peb nyob, "nws piav qhia. "Kuv xav tias nws yuav tawm hauv lawv mus thiab peb yuav muaj kev hloov pauv, tab sis nws tsis paub txog lub sijhawm no."
Qhov no tsis yog xyoo 2008…
Thaum Michael Burry, lwm tus neeg pab nyiaj txiag muaj npe nrov los ntawm kev ua tiav ntawm Tus Loj Luv, tau sib cav tias cov khoom lag luam nyob hauv "qhov loj tshaj npuas npuas speculative ntawm txhua lub sijhawm" txij li xyoo 2021 thiab kwv yees qhov "leej niam ntawm txhua qhov kev sib tsoo, ”Eisman tsis ntseeg tias keeb kwm rov hais dua nws tus kheej. Kev txhim kho kev tswj hwm hauv cov nyiaj txiag tau tsim kom muaj kev nyab xeeb dua, nws hais.
"Kuv xav tias 2000 thiab 2008 rau qee cov tub ua lag luam zoo li PTSD," nws hais. "Tsis muaj ntau tus neeg nyob hauv Ntiaj Teb Ntiaj Teb uas nkag siab tiag tiag npaum li cas cov qauv nyiaj txiag ntawm Tebchaws Meskas thiab Europe tau hloov pauv tiag tiag. Yog li ntawd, lawv pom cov kev lag luam poob qis thiab lawv hais rau lawv tus kheej, 'Au, tus Vajtswv, yuav muaj ib yam phem tshwm sim.'
Thiab thaum Burry tau ceeb toom tias "ncua kev lag luam ntau xyoo"Nws zoo li yuav nyob ntawm txoj kev, Eisman tau hais tias nws xav tias yuav muaj qee yam mob hnyav dua.
Nws tau hais tias "Muaj qee yam tsis zoo tuaj yeem tshwm sim, koj paub, peb tuaj yeem muaj kev poob qis," nws hais. "Tab sis kuv txoj kev xav yog peb yuav muaj kev lag luam qub-ntawm-lub-mills. Peb yuav tsis muaj qee qhov kev kub ntxhov loj heev uas lub kaw lus muaj kev pheej hmoo tag nrho, uas yog qhov tshwm sim hauv '08."
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
Cov lus dab neeg Olympic Usain Bolt poob $ 12 lab hauv kev khaws nyiaj rau kev dag ntxias. Tsuas yog $12,000 tseem nyob hauv nws tus account
Meghan Markle qhov kev txhaum tiag tiag uas cov pej xeem Askiv tsis tuaj yeem zam txim - thiab Asmeskas tsis tuaj yeem nkag siab
'Nws tsuas yog tsis ua haujlwm.' Lub ntiaj teb lub tsev noj mov zoo tshaj plaws tau raug kaw vim nws tus tswv hu cov qauv noj mov zoo niaj hnub 'tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg'
Bob Iger tsuas yog tso nws ko taw thiab hais kom Disney cov neeg ua haujlwm rov qab los rau hauv chaw ua haujlwm
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-hedge-funder-says-212252104.html