Lub khw lag luam tau nyiam qhov mini-rally nyob rau hauv ob peb hnub dhau los, tab sis qhov kev nce qib tshiab zoo li kev nce siab hauv nruab nrab ntawm qhov poob loj dua.
Mike Wilson, tus thawj coj ntawm US Equity Strategist ntawm Morgan Stanley, tsis xav tias qhov txiaj ntsig yuav kav ntev. Nws tau sau tias "Cov khoom lag luam zoo li tau pib dua lwm cov khoom lag luam dais," nws sau. "Tom qab ntawd, peb tseem ntseeg tias tus nqi qis tseem nyob tom ntej."
Vim li cas tib neeg yuav tsum tsis txhob noj qhov nce ntawm lub ntsej muag? Zoo, nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob uas pom tias cov khoom lag luam tau nce hauv av. Lub khw tau battered nws zoo li tau thov kom yuav.
Ntawm nws qhov taw tes qis rau hnub Thursday, S&P 500 yog 12% qis dua nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab-ib qho cim qhia tias cov khoom lag luam tau poob deb ntawm lawv cov kev hloov mus sij hawm ntev. Qhov Performance index yog qhov deb tshaj plaws hauv qab nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab nws tau nyob txij li qhov qis hauv lub Peb Hlis 2020, thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw.
John Kolovos, tus kws tshaj lij kws tshaj lij ntawm Macro Risk Advisors hais tias "Nws [lub khw] tau muag ntau dhau,"
Tam sim no, kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem raug khob rov qab. Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm rooj plaub yog kev ntsuas, uas tseem sib cav ntau dhau.
S&P 500 tab tom ua lag luam ntawm tsuas yog ntau dua 17 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los sib koom ua ke uas cov khoom lag luam hauv kev lag luam yuav tsum tau coj los rau hauv 12 lub hlis tom ntej, nqis los ntawm me ntsis ntau dua 21 zaug thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Tab sis qhov ntawd yuav tsis qis txaus.
Qhov teeb meem yog tias nyob rau theem ntawd, qhov sib sau EPS yog 5.8% rau txhua duas tus neeg ua lag luam them rau qhov ntsuas. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog 2.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua cov txiaj ntsig ntawm ultrasafe 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv, uas muaj tau nce xyoo no. Qhov ntawd 2.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus yog cov qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 2008-2009 nyiaj txiag teeb meem, raws li Morgan Stanley, yog li nws tsis ntau los them nyiaj rau cov tub ua lag luam rau qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam.
Yog tias cov tub ua lag luam tseem tuav rov qab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv kev cia siab tias yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua, kev nqis peev yuav poob. Wilson lub hom phiaj rau qib ntawm S&P 500 yog 3900, kwv yees li 4% qis dua qib tam sim no, piv txwv tias nws muaj nuj nqis ntawm 16.5 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tom ntej.
Qhov ntawd yuav tsis zoo li qhov poob qis, tab sis yog tias kev ua lag luam tsis zoo txaus rau lub siab, qhov kev poob qis yuav phem dua li ntawd. Wilson tau sau tias "Peb tseem xav tias qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ncaj ncees rau qhov kev poob qis yog ua tau," Wilson tau sau.
S&P 500 yuav nyob rau hauv lub lag luam dais, nqis 20% ntawm nws qhov siab, yog tias nws poob rau 3,837. Cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tau tawm ntawm cov ntoo.
Sau ntawv rau Yakhauj Sonenshine ntawm [email tiv thaiv]