(Bloomberg) - Lub lag luam dais uas tshem tawm ntau npaum li $ 12 trillion hauv Asmeskas cov txiaj ntsig kev ncaj ncees dhau lawm, raws li Chris Harvey ntawm Wells Fargo & Co.
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Tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees lub tswv yim hais tias qhov kev thim rov qab tsis ntev los no hauv cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev nqis peev-qib cov tuam txhab kev lag luam tau "tsis sib haum" nrog qhov kev ntshai tshaj plaws uas S&P 500 yuav rov qab muag thiab tshem tawm nws lub Kaum Hlis qis. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov ntawv txheeb xyuas kev noj qab haus huv ntawm ob tus neeg koom tes thiab cov neeg siv khoom tau qhia txog qib qis ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm lub cev, txhais tau hais tias tus catalyst rau kev lag luam txuas ntxiv poob qis, nws hais ntxiv.
"Kev lag luam dais feem ntau xaus thaum peb pom kev nruj nruj thiab kev noj qab haus huv zoo ib yam li qhov peb tau ntsib ntau lub hlis dhau los," Harvey tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv hnub Monday. "Thaum cov lag luam dais mus 'theem tom ntej' nthuav dav, tsis nruj, raws li lawv muaj hnub no. IG nthuav tawm txhawb peb cov kev xav txog kev pheej hmoo. "
Harvey koom nrog haiv neeg tsawg ntawm Wall Street, suav nrog Ed Yardeni, hauv kev hu xov tooj xaus rau 2022 lub lag luam dais. Hauv kev tshawb fawb Bloomberg MLIV Pulse tau ua thaum lub Ib Hlis Ntuj kawg, kwv yees li 70% ntawm cov neeg teb hais tias lub khw lag luam tseem tsis tau poob qis tom qab S&P 500 poob 25% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj mus rau trough.
Thaum Yardeni tau saib qhov kev sib tw ntawm kev ncaj ncees los ntawm Lub Kaum Hli thaum pib ntawm tus nyuj tshiab, Harvey tsis tshua muaj siab ntseeg. Nws tau ua raws li nws lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg ntawm 4,200 rau S&P 500, ib qib uas tsuas yog 2.7% siab dua hnub Friday kaw.
Txoj kev Harvey pom nws, thaum kev muag khoom tau khiav nws txoj kev kawm, cov khoom xyaw rau kev rov ua haujlwm tau zoo - kev nthuav dav ntxiv hauv cov khoom lag luam ntau thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tuam txhab, tau ploj lawm, tsawg kawg rau tam sim no.
Ntawm 18.3 lub sijhawm cov nyiaj tau los, S&P 500's P / E piv tau tshaj nws qhov nruab nrab 10 xyoo. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev xav tau nyiaj tau los yog souring. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau txiav lawv qhov kev kwv yees xyoo 2023 rau cov tuam txhab Asmeskas loj los ntawm 5% rau $ 220.70 ib feem txij li thaum lub Kaum Hlis kawg, cov ntaub ntawv sau los ntawm Bloomberg Intelligence qhia.
Harvey tau hais tias "tus nyuj yog "tso nyob rau hauv tsheb," Harvey sau.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-market-over-stocks-wells-173841925.html