Thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 pom ntau liab rau cov khoom sib npaug. S&P 500 (^ GSPC) sau nws kev ua phem tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1970 thiab tau swb mus rau hauv dais lag luam thaj chaw nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj 2022.
Tab sis Evercore ISI's Rich Ross pom ntsuab hauv kev ua lag luam rau lub xyoo tas los.
"Rau thawj zaug hauv qee lub sijhawm, cov tub rog saum toj kawg nkaus, uas tau ua tus tsav tsheb, lub taub hau rau cov khoom lag luam - tus neeg tsav tsheb ntawm lub lag luam dais - tab tom pib thim rov qab, thiab cov khoom lag luam pom tseeb tau noj tawm ntawm qhov tawm los. Lub Xya Hli muaj zog," Ross hais rau Yahoo Finance Live.
Ross tau hais txog kev nce qib hauv cov khoom lag luam, roj av, thiab kev nce nqi raws li tus cwj pwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam. Txij thaum Lub Xya Hli 2020, 10-xyoo cov nyiaj tau los (^ TNX) mus los ntawm 55 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau peak ntawm 3.43% nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2022. Roj Crude (CL = F) tus nqi mus txog rau sab qaum teb ntawm $ 120 ib chim rau xyoo no, nws qib siab tshaj txij li thaum Lub peb hlis ntuj 2012.
Lub hli dhau los, cov ntsuas no tau cog lus. US cov roj crude poob qis dua $90 ib chim hnub Thursday, thiab 30-xyoo-laus tus nqi qiv nyiaj (FRM) poob qis dua 5%. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 2022, S&P 500 (^ GSPC) nce 9.2%, kos lub hli zoo tshaj plaws rau qhov ntsuas txij li Kaum ib hlis 2020.
Ross kuj tau sau tseg txog kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov nqi roj qis thiab cov nqi khoom lag luam siab dua.
"Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus tam sim no, cov txiaj ntsig qis dua yog qhov zoo rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov khw muag khoom lag luam, feem ntau tau tsav los ntawm kev loj hlob tech thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam ntawm qib ntsuas," Ross hais.
Txawm li cas los xij, Ross tau ceeb toom tias kev lag luam poob qis - uas Evercore ISI tsis ua haujlwm - tuaj yeem yog lub cim tsis zoo rau kev ncaj ncees. Ross piav qhia tias "Tej zaum yuav muaj qee qhov taw qhia yav tom ntej thaum koj tau txais kev poob qis rov qab los ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog hauv cov khoom nyoos," Ross piav qhia.
Ross muaj nws lub qhov muag ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim siab, semiconductors, thiab software.
"Tsis muaj kev lag luam [xws li cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim siab] uas tej zaum zoo dua los ua kom tau txiaj ntsig los ntawm qee qhov kev tsis muaj zog uas peb pom los ntawm qhov saum toj-down macro thoob plaws cov roj av, kev nce nqi, thiab cov paj laum," Ross sau tseg.
Cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim siab tau nce los ntawm lawv qhov trough ob peb lub hlis dhau los. Cov Neeg Siv Khoom Txiav Txim Siab Xaiv Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) yog nce 16% txij lub Xya Hli 2022.
Ross siv lub xyoo 1970s dais lag luam los piav qhia vim li cas cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau saib mus yuav.
"Cia peb piv thiab sib piv rau '70s, ib xyoo caum uas ntau tus neeg tau muab piv rau qhov no los ntawm kev tsim txiaj ntawm kev nce nqi, roj av, geopolitics, kev tsis sib haum xeeb raws li nws tau ua. Nyob rau hauv lub 70s, thawj dais lag luam coj koj poob txog 30%, thiab nyob rau hauv ib lub xyoo, koj tau recouped 90% ntawm cov poob, "Ross piav qhia.
Ross saib $4,600 rau S&P 500 (^ GSPC) thiab $15,000 rau Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) raws li tus nqi tsim nyog rau lub hlis tom ntej.
"Kuv hais rau koj tias tej zaum peb nyob rau hauv kev lag luam bull cyclical tam sim no tias lub lag luam dais uas tau pib rov qab rau lub Ib Hlis, Lub Ob Hlis ntawm qhov ntsuas qib dhau lawm. Qhov qis qis yog nyob rau hauv, thiab tam sim no peb yuav tsum tau yuav dips, tsis yog muag rips, raws li tau muaj rau rau lub hlis dhau los, "Ross hais.
Yaseen Shah yog tus kws sau ntawv ntawm Yahoo Nyiaj Txiag. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @yaseennshah22
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-nasdaq-inflation-crude-oil-interest-rates-mortgage-bear-market-consumer-discretionaries-market-stocks-190030093.html