" 'Peb yuav pom qee qhov kev hloov kho qis qis [rau cov nyiaj khwv tau los] thiab peb qhov kev kwv yees rau cov txiaj ntsig kev loj hlob rau 2023 yog $ 200 rau S&P 500. Qhov ntawd yuav txhais tau hais tias txog 10% poob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los nce mus rau trough.'"
Qhov ntawd yog Savita Subramanian, tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees thiab ntau lub tswv yim ntawm Bank of America, hauv kev xam phaj hnub Thursday nrog Bloomberg podcast "Dab tsi mus."
Subramanian tau hais tias nws pab neeg xav tias 2023 yuav yog lub xyoo "stellar" tsawg dua rau cov khoom lag luam kev lag luam, nrog S&P 500
SPX,
muaj peev xwm nce mus txog 4,600, 15% kev sib tw los ntawm qib tam sim no. Txawm li cas los xij, pab pawg tseem xav tias qhov ntsuas qhov loj-cap yuav qis dua ntawm 3,000, lossis kwv yees li 25% poob ntawm qib tam sim no. S&P 500 xaus 0.4% siab dua rau hnub Friday, ntawm txog 3,999.
"Kuv xav tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas hauv cov tuam txhab tej zaum yuav raug txiav txim siab me ntsis ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, cov nqi siab thiab nqi zog mus tom ntej," nws hais hauv Bloomberg kev sib tham. "Peb xav tias peb yuav pom cov kev kwv yees poob qis, thiab nws zoo li yuav tshwm sim tom qab cov tuam txhab qhia qis qis dua ib puag ncig 2023 cov nyiaj tau los."
2023 cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem (EPS) kev pom zoo rau S&P 500 yog $ 231.05, tseem tshuav zoo dua li Bank of America qhov kev kwv yees ntawm $ 200, raws li FactSet. EPS yog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los sib faib los ntawm tus lej ntawm cov khoom lag luam, thiab tuaj yeem qhia tias ntau npaum li cas ib lub tuam txhab ua rau txhua feem ntawm cov khoom lag luam.
Subramanian cia siab tias yuav pom kev ntxhov siab hauv cov tuam txhab "nrog rau kev siv zog ntau dua, zoo li cov tuam txhab kev pabcuam," thiab nrog cov tuam txhab uas tus nqi siab tseem siab. "Cov no yog thaj chaw uas peb xav tias peb yuav pom qee qhov kev taw qhia qis ntawm cov npoo."
Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj ntawm US tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees Mike Wilson thiab nws pab neeg tau hais tsis ntev los no tias cov tuam txhab nyiaj tau los kwv yees tam sim no rau 2023 yog "khoom siv ntau dhau," hais txog "txoj kev qis dhau" tus nqi pheej hmoo pheej hmoo (ERP) rau cov khoom lag luam, muab cov nyiaj tau los siab. ERP hais txog cov nyiaj rov qab ntau tshaj cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem tau txais los tuav cov khoom lag luam tshaj li cov cuab tam tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Wilson pab pawg xav tias US cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem poob qis dua 22% hauv 2023, thaum lawv cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees rau S&P 500 EPS yog $ 195, thiab lawv cov ntaub ntawv kwv yees yog $ 180.
Lub caij khwv nyiaj hauv lub quarter thib plaub tau pib ua haujlwm siab rau hnub Friday nrog Wall Street cov tsev txhab nyiaj hloov pauv cov txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau, txawm tias cov thawj coj tau ceeb toom txog kev lag luam poob qis. Bank of America
BAC,
tau hais tias nws khwv tau $ 7.1 nphom, lossis 85 xees ib feem ntawm lub quarter thib plaub, piv nrog $ 7 billion, lossis 82 xees ib feem, hauv lub quarter dhau los. Cov nyiaj tau los, cov nuj nqis ntawm cov paj laum, tau nce 11% mus rau $ 24.5 billion, txhawb nqa los ntawm kev nce nyiaj ntau hauv cov paj laum ua tsaug rau cov nqi siab dua thiab kev qiv nyiaj loj hlob hauv lub quarter thib plaub.
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-americas-subramanian-says-s-p-500-earnings-risk-a-10-drop-in-2023-11673642148?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo