Cov khw muag khoom hauv tsheb tau dhau los ua lag luam rau ntau qhov kev sib kis. Kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb tam sim no yuav tsum ua kom pab pawg nyob hauv txoj kab nrawm.
Auto Parts retailers muaj lub koob npe nrov li cov khoom tiv thaiv-Tom qab tag nrho, kev kho tsheb tsuas tuaj yeem ua tau ncua ntev heev, txawm tias thaum muaj kev poob qis. Muaj cov laj thawj xav tias cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem ua tau zoo dua.
"Thaum koj tuaj yeem yuav cov khoom lag luam no ntawm cov nqi no, muaj qhov pheej hmoo tsis zoo / rov qab los," hais tias Max Wasserman, tus tsim ntawm Miramar Capital, uas yog tswv cuab ntawm Advance Auto Parts thiab Qhov Tseeb. "Yog lawm, lawv tuaj yeem nqis mus ntxiv me ntsis, tab sis qhov upside yog ntau dua."
Muaj lub tsheb khiav tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb rau cov neeg Asmeskas feem coob. Qhov ntawd ua rau lawv muaj kev txhawb siab kom kho lawv lub tsheb, txawm tias lub tsheb muaj hnub nyoog. Lub tsheb nruab nrab yog ntau tshaj 12 xyoo, raws li S&P Global Mobility. Cov Qhov Tseeb Tseeb tau kwv yees cov qauv qub yuav xav tau $ 800 ib xyoos hauv kev saib xyuas.
Qhov ntawd tsis zoo li yuav hloov tau sai sai. Cov neeg siv khoom nyiam ncua sijhawm yuav daim pib loj xws li tsheb thaum lawv tsis ntseeg siab txog kev lag luam, thaum tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub tsheb tshiab tau nce mus txog $ 47,000 los ntawm $ 38,000 thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis loj vim tias cov chips tsis txaus crimped lub tsheb tso tawm. Cov tsheb siv tau ntaus cov nqi sau tseg, ua rau lawv tsis ncav cuag ntau.
| Tuam Txhab / Ticker | Cov Nqe Tsis Ntev Los no | YTD Hloov | 12-Maj. Xa mus rau P/E | 2022 EPS Kev Loj Hlob ** | Kev Lag Luam Tus Nqi (bil) |
|---|
| Ua ntej Auto Parts / AAP | $178.75 | -25% | 12.8 | 14% | $10.8 |
| AutoZone / AZO * | 2,125.33 | 1 | 17.5 | 21 | 41.4 |
| Qhov Tseeb / GPC | 135.45 | -3 | 17.0 | 13 | 19.2 |
| O'Reilly Automotive / ORLY | 630.52 | -11 | 18.4 | 6 | 41.4 |
* Xyoo nyiaj txiag xaus rau lub Yim Hli ** Xyoo dhau xyoo
Source: FactSet
Xyoo 2007-09 kev lag luam poob qis tau qhia txog qhov ua tau zoo ntawm cov khw muag khoom tsheb. Tag nrho cov khoom lag luam poob qis hauv ib nrab, tab sis nrog rau qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm Qhov Tseeb, cov khw muag khoom tsheb feem ntau tsis muaj kev puas tsuaj. Shares ntawm AutoZone thiab Advance Auto tuav lawv tus nqi thaum lub sij hawm poob, thaum O'Reilly Tshuag poob tsuas yog 10%.
"Thaum cov neeg siv khoom siv nyiaj hauv cov khoom siv tsheb tau poob qis thaum lub sij hawm muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj, nws tau poob qis dua li cov khoom siv ruaj khov thiab rov qab tau sai dua" dua li cov khoom siv ruaj khov thiab tag nrho cov kev siv tus kheej, sau tseg Morgan Stanley tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Simeon Gutman.
Tsis yog lub specter ntawm lub tsheb fais fab - uas zoo li yuav ua kom yuam kev rau kev kho-nws-koj tus kheej-kev txhawj xeeb rau cov khw muag khoom tsheb, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam hais. EVs thiab hybrids ua ke suav nrog kwv yees li 10% ntawm Asmeskas kev muag tsheb xyoo tas los, thaum tsawg dua 1% ntawm cov tsheb ntawm Asmeskas txoj kev yog hluav taws xob.
“Txhua yam EVs yuav nthuav dav; Nws tsis yog kev sib cav dag, tab sis nws yuav siv sijhawm ntau xyoo, tej zaum ntau xyoo, rau lawv kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo "ntawm cov khw muag khoom tsheb rov qab, hais tias Mark Giambrone, tus thawj coj ntawm US cov peev txheej ntawm Barrow Hanley Ntiaj Teb Cov Neeg Lag Luam.
O'Reilly tau nce txog 20% txij li thaum Barron tus pom zoo cov shares thaum lub Plaub Hlis 2021, thaum S&P 500 tawm ze li ntawm 9% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias lub tuam txhab tuaj yeem nce nws cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 12.5% txhua xyoo rau xyoo, qhov kev loj hlob siab tshaj plaws hauv pab pawg. Gutman tsis ntev los no tau hloov kho AutoZone, hais txog nws lub peev xwm los hla tus nqi siab dua rau cov neeg siv khoom, tiv thaiv cov npoo ntawm ib lub sijhawm thaum lawv zoo li yuav los nyob rau hauv ntau lub tuam txhab. Nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, lub tuam txhab kev loj hlob ntawm megahubs tau txiav lub sijhawm xa khoom.
Qhov ua-nws-rau-kuv ib feem ntawm kev ua lag luam uas NAPA ua haujlwm tau loj hlob raws li kev kho tsheb ntau dua, thiab nws muaj 2.6% cov nyiaj tau los.
Txawm li cas los xij, rau qhov muaj peev xwm upside, nws nyuaj rau tuav Advance Auto.
Cov kev tswj tsis raug ua ntej, suav nrog kev sib koom ua ke tsis muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm kev yuav khoom, tau hnyav rau ntawm cov khoom lag luam, thiab kev pheej hmoo ua tiav tseem tshuav, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam hais. "Kev tswj hwm tseem ua haujlwm los ntawm cov teeb meem kev koom ua ke," hais tias MKM Partners tus kws tshuaj ntsuam David Bellinger. Advance Auto tsis teb rau qhov kev thov tawm tswv yim.
Lub tuam txhab ua lag luam nyob ib ncig ntawm 12 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tom ntej, qis dua ob pawg ntawm 17-18 ntau thiab nws tus kheej tsib xyoos nruab nrab ntawm 17.3. Nws muaj kua txiv 3.4% tawm los thiab tsis ntev los no txhawb nws cov nyiaj faib.
Wasserman hais tias "Ntawm theem no kuv tau them tsawg dua ntawm ntau dua S&P 500 kom tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua," Wasserman hais. Nws tau ntev muaj Cov Khoom Siv Tiag Tiag tab sis tsis ntev los no tau nqis peev hauv Advance Auto, thiab xav tias nws tuaj yeem "yooj yim pauv rov qab" ze rau qee qhov nws qhov siab dhau los, hauv $ 220 ntau, los ntawm $ 178 tsis ntev los no. "Koj tsis xav yuav cov khoom lag luam no thaum txhua tus hlub lawv," nws hais ntxiv.
Giambrone kuj zoo siab txog Advance Auto. "Nyob rau hauv peb lub tswv yim, tsis muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm cov qauv ntawm Advance Auto thiab O'Reilly. Nws tsuas yog keeb kwm tsis raug tswj hwm, thiab lawv cov npoo yog 500 txog 600 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus sib nrug, "nws hais. (Ib lub hauv paus ntsiab lus yog 1/100th ntawm ib feem pua.)
Thaum cov roj hmab ua tau raws li txoj hauv kev hauv kev lag luam tsis yooj yim, cov khoom siv hauv cov khw muag khoom yuav tsum tsis txhob siv lub rooj zaum rov qab.
Sau rau Teresa Rivas ntawm [email tiv thaiv]