Yog tias koj tau raug thawb tawm ntawm lub khw muag vaj tsev nyob hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los tos rau lub sijhawm yuav, koj yuav thaum kawg tau txais koj lub sijhawm - thiab qee qhov chaw twb tau saib zoo nkauj dua rau cov neeg yuav khoom.
Kev lag luam vaj tsev tab tom pib txias thiab cov nroog uas tau pom "kev muaj nyiaj txiag ntau," raws li Rick Palacios, Jr. hu nws, yuav pom cov nqi poob qis tshaj plaws.
Palacios yog tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm John Burns Real Estate Consulting, uas muab kev soj ntsuam ntawm lub tsev lag luam rau cov neeg siv khoom xws li cov neeg tsim khoom, cov tswv tsev thiab cov tub ua lag luam.
Nws tau kwv yees qhov kev poob qis tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv Boise, Austin, Nashville, Phoenix, Sacramento thiab lwm lub nroog uas cov nqi nce siab thaum lub sijhawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw vim ntau tus neeg tsiv mus rau lawv.
Palacios hais tias "Cov no yog qee lub khw uas peb tau cia siab tias tus nqi qis tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2023," Palacios hais.
Tsis nco
Thaum nruj kev lag luam yuav ua rau txoj kev poob
Lawv yog cov nroog cov neeg tuaj yeem mus rau thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb, muab lawv lub npe menyuam yaus "Zoom nroog." Lawv muaj lub neej zoo thiab ib txwm muaj nqi tsev nyob qis dua li cov chaw loj.
Thiab txij li thaum pib muaj kev sib kis, cov neeg uas tuaj yeem ua haujlwm nyob deb tau tsiv mus rau thaj chaw no, ntes cov tsev pheej yig thiab tsav tsheb nce nqi.
Tab sis Palacios tau kwv yees qhov kev poob qis hauv cov nqi vaj tsev nyob hauv cov nroog no, nrog Boise ua tus thawj coj.
Boise tau dhau los ua ib lub nroog pheej yig tshaj plaws los yuav thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb raws li kev nkag mus ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom hauv cheeb tsam. Cov nqi tsev nce mus txog 72% siab dua qhov tsev neeg tau nyiaj nruab nrab tuaj yeem them tau xyoo tas los, raws li Oxford Economics.
"Boise yog ib qho ntawm cov lag luam uas ib txwm caij cov npuas npuas. Thaum tej yam zoo heev, kuv txhais tau tias, nws tsuas yog - nws ntes cov nthwv dej ntawd, "Palacios hais.
Tab sis tib yam tuaj yeem hais rau thaum txhua yam pib nqis mus.
"Tsuas saib ntawm qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev txaus siab hauv tsev, [Boise] tau thim rov qab tag nrho. Thiab nws yog, kuv xav tias, ib qho kev lag luam uas peb xav tias yuav tau txais tus nqi poob rau xyoo 2022. "
Thiab txawm hais tias qhov no yuav yog cov xov xwm nyuaj rau cov neeg uas tau yuav hauv Boise thiab cov nroog zoo sib xws hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, nws yog xov xwm zoo rau txhua tus neeg tab tom nrhiav kev yuav khoom - txawm hais tias nws yuav siv li ob peb lub hlis lossis ntau xyoo ua ntej cov nqi tawm.
Cov neeg ua lag luam tab tom tso cov so
Cov nqi tsev hauv Phoenix tau nce 25% xyoo dhau los, raws li Zillow tus nqi ntsuas.
"Raws li thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no ... cov neeg ua lag luam kev lag luam yog 45% ntawm tag nrho cov vaj tsev nyob," hais tias Palacios.
Qhov ntawd suav nrog cov neeg yuav tsev thib ob, cov peev txheej thiab cov tsev los hloov.
Palacios hais tias "Qhov ntawd yog qhov loj heev," "Thiab muaj ntau lub khw thoob plaws lub tebchaws uas cov neeg ua lag luam pauv tam sim no 30-40-45% ntawm tag nrho cov kev yuav tsev."
Palacios hais tias kev lag luam nyob ntawm kev nqis peev ua haujlwm tau zoo, hais tias Palacios, tab sis lawv tuaj yeem tig tau sai.
"Yog vim li cas peb tau txais qee qhov kev kwv yees tsis zoo, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev txheeb ze rau ntau yam kev lag luam qeeb, ruaj khov."
Raws li Redfin, cov tub ua lag luam yuav khoom hauv Nashville poob ze li 17% hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, 17% hauv Las Vegas, thiab 21% hauv Sacramento.
Cov khoom muag tau nce
Txij thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2020, ua ntej kev lag luam vaj tsev mus haywire, txog rau lub caij ntuj sov no, cov nqi vaj tsev nyob hauv Boise tau nce 58%, hais tias Palacios. Hauv Austin, lawv nce 75% thiab hauv Nashville, nws nce 56%.
Palacios hais tias "Peb saib ntawm kev them taus yog ib qho ntawm feem ntau, yog tias tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb rau cov khoom lag luam nyob hauv kev lag luam li cas," Palacios hais.
Thiab raws li cov paj laum pib nce - lub teb chaws tus nqi ntawm 30-xyoo qiv nyiaj yog tam sim no 5.66%, raws li Freddie Mac - nws tau paub meej tias cov nqi no tau dhau los ua tsis tau.
Palacios hais tias "Kev them nyiaj txhua hli nce 40-50% xyoo dhau los," Palacios hais. "Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov kev poob siab loj heev rau tus neeg yuav khoom, uas qhia koj tias vim li cas cov khw no tau rub rov qab sai heev."
Cov tuam txhab tseem tab tom pib coj tib neeg rov qab mus rau qhov chaw ua haujlwm, uas tau ua ib feem ntawm ntau tus neeg tso lawv lub tsev rau kev muag khoom thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom muag.
Cov khoom lag luam vaj tsev tau nce 26% thoob tebchaws txhua xyoo, raws li Realtor.com.
Ratiu hais tias cov khoom muag tau loj hlob hauv Austin, Raleigh, Nashville, Sacramento thiab lwm tus - dua, cov nroog uas pom muaj neeg coob coob nyob rau ob xyoos dhau los.
"Cov kev lag luam no muaj, ntau txoj hauv kev, nyiam cov neeg los ntawm ntug hiav txwv, ntau lub khw kim dua," Ratiu hais.
"Austin tau yog cov hlau nplaum rau ntau tus neeg ua haujlwm thev naus laus zis los ntawm San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Seattle, Los Angeles, feem ntau ntawm lawv nyiam cov txheeb ze pheej yig. Nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob uas pom tias, nyob rau hauv lem, cov kev lag luam no yog ib qho ntawm cov kev hloov hauv kev ua lag luam. "
Austin pom qee qhov kev loj hlob loj tshaj plaws hauv cov khoom muag, raws li Redfin. Tus naj npawb ntawm cov tsev muag khoom hauv nroog tau nce 27% thaum Lub Rau Hli, piv nrog rau xyoo tas los.
Tab sis raws li ntau lub tsev tuaj ntawm kev ua lag luam, cov neeg muag khoom tseem cia siab rau cov nqi ntawm cov khw muag khoom, hais tias Ratiu.
“Kev lag luam tau hloov pauv ntau hauv peb lub hlis dhau los. Thiab qhov peb tab tom pom tus nqi ntse, peb tseem pom ntau tus tswv tsev sau cov tsev raws li kev lag luam txij li rau lub hlis dhau los. "
Thiab kev txiav nqi rau cov npe tau nce. Thaum Lub Xya Hli, 19% ntawm cov npe hauv tebchaws tau txiav lawv cov nqi, ze rau qib tsis pom txij li xyoo 2017.
Ze li 70% ntawm cov neeg muag khoom hauv Boise yuav tsum tau txiav lawv cov nqi thaum Lub Xya Hli, raws li Redfin.
Cov neeg yuav khoom yuav tsum ua li cas tam sim no?
Palacios hais tias tag nrho cov cim taw qhia rau a vaj tse qeeb, thiab txawm hais tias nws yuav siv sij hawm ntau lub hlis lossis ntau dua rau cov nqi nqes, yog tias koj tuaj yeem tos, koj yuav tsum.
Palacios hais tias "Peb tsis tau nyob hauv ib puag ncig qeeb tau ntau xyoo,"
“Cov kev xaiv yuav tawm mus. Thiab kuv tsis xav tias nws yog qhov kev txiav txim siab phem tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb kom ua siab ntev me ntsis tam sim no dua li qhov koj xav tau thaum tus nqi yog 3-4%. "
Yuav nyeem dab tsi tom ntej
Kab lus no muab cov ntaub ntawv nkaus xwb thiab yuav tsum tsis txhob muab txhais ua cov lus qhia. Nws tau muab yam tsis muaj kev lees paub ntawm txhua yam.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-market-returns-sanity-150000097.html