Tojsiab
Kev saib xyuas kev lag luam zoo nrog cov ntaub ntawv zoo hauv kev kwv yees kev lag luam kev lag luam txiav nws cov kev kwv yees rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kev loj hlob lub lim tiam no, qhia tias lub teb chaws tau poob rau hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam txawm tias muaj kev lag luam nce zuj zus, hu xov tooj rau kev rov qab los rau kev loj hlob. nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob.
Tom qab cov ntaub ntawv siv nyiaj tsis muaj zog rau lub Tsib Hlis, Bank of America txiav nws qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam mus rau xoom.
txais
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Bank ntawm Atlanta's GDPNow qauv rau hnub Thursday kwv yees Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis 1% hauv lub quarter thib ob, plam mus rau qhov tsis zoo tom qab cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam pom cov neeg siv khoom siv. poob Nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, thaum kev nqis peev hauv tsev, lwm feem ntawm GDP kev loj hlob, kuj poob.
Tus qauv, uas kwv yees GDP kev loj hlob siv cov txheej txheem zoo ib yam li siv rau Bureau of Economic Analysis ' official kwv yees, tau tsis tu ncua txo nws cov kev kwv yees GDP thib ob raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab kev lag luam uas tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev lag luam poob qis nyob rau lub sijhawm tsis ntev los no. lub lis piam.
Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam poob nthav poob qis 1.6% hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg raws li qhov sib txawv ntawm omicron tau ua rau muaj cov ntaub ntawv nce siab hauv Covid cov neeg mob, yog li lwm lub quarter tsis zoo yuav qhia tias lub tebchaws tau poob rau hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam, uas txhais tau tias yog ob peb lub hlis twg ntawm kev loj hlob tsis zoo GDP.
"Tus qauv kev ua haujlwm ntev yog qhov zoo heev," Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam DataTrek tau sau ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Thursday hmo ntuj, taw qhia nws qhov kev ua yuam kev nruab nrab tsuas yog 0.3 cov ntsiab lus txij li Atlanta Fed pib khiav nws hauv 2011 - tab sis yog xoom txog 2019, ua ntej unprecedented volatility nyob ib ncig ntawm tus kab mob sib kis.
Nrog rau qhov yuam kev ntawm 1.2 cov ntsiab lus ib hlis ua ntej tsoomfwv thawj qhov kev kwv yees GDP, tus qauv tseem tuaj yeem kwv yees qhov kev loj hlob zoo rau peb lub hlis twg, DataTrek's Nicholas Colas thiab Jessica Rabe tau sau tseg, txawm hais tias lawv ntxiv qhov ntsuas yuav yog "tseem ceeb saib" raws li nws. kev kwv yees muaj peev xwm txhim kho nrog lub sijhawm.
Feem ntau cov kws lag luam tseem tab tom kwv yees qhov kev rov qab los rau kev loj hlob, nrog qhov kev kwv yees nruab nrab hu rau GDP kom nce ntau dua 3% lub quarter dhau los, tab sis ntau tus tau nce ntxiv. bearish nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no, nrog Bank of America's Ethan Harris rau hnub Friday tau txo qis nws qhov kev kwv yees mus rau xoom kev loj hlob lub quarter kawg (los ntawm 1.5% yav dhau los) tom qab cov ntaub ntawv siv nyiaj tsis muaj zog rau lub Tsib Hlis.
Dab Tsi Los Saib
Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam nthuav tawm nws thawj qhov kev kwv yees ntawm GDP kev loj hlob thib ob hauv peb lub hlis twg - lossis poob qis - thaum Lub Xya Hli 28, tab sis nws yuav tsis tso tawm qhov kwv yees zaum kawg txog rau lub Cuaj Hli.
Tsis meej
Kho rau kev nce nqi, cov neeg siv khoom siv tau poob rau thawj zaug xyoo no hauv lub Tsib Hlis, raws li hnub Thursday cov ntaub ntawv. Qhov kev poob qis tshaj li qhov kev cia siab ua rau qhov kev poob qis thib ob hauv peb lub hlis twg hauv GDP "ntau dua," Pantheon Macro tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Ian Shepherdson tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv rau hnub Friday, kwv yees GDP poob 0.5% hauv peb lub hlis thib ob. Txawm li cas los xij, nws sau tseg National Bureau of Economic Research - "tus kws txiav txim plaub ntug" uas nws cov lus tshaj tawm yog txais los ntawm tsoomfwv - "tej zaum yuav tsis" tshaj tawm kev poob nyiaj tshwj tsis yog kev ua haujlwm, uas tseem yog ib qho ntawm kev lag luam tus ncej tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, pib poob ib yam nkaus. Ntau dua li kev tawm mus rau kev lag luam kev lag luam, NBER vaguely txhais qhov kev lag luam poob qis li "kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam uas tau nthuav dav thoob plaws kev lag luam thiab kav ntev dua li ob peb lub hlis."
Contra
Txawm hais tias muaj kev poob qis zuj zus, ntau tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag tsis ntseeg tias Asmeskas yuav poob rau hauv kev lag luam-tsawg kawg yuav tsis tshwm sim. Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb rau hnub Monday, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm S&P Global Ratings tau hais tias kev lag luam muaj lub zog txaus kom tsis txhob muaj kev lag luam nyiaj txiag xyoo no, tab sis ceeb toom "dab tsi nyob ib puag ncig khoov xyoo tom ntej yog qhov kev txhawj xeeb loj dua." Cov kws tshawb fawb tau muab qhov txawv txav ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv 2023 ntawm 40%. Ib lub lim tiam dhau los, Morgan Stanley Muab tso qhov sib txawv ntawm 35%.
Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb
Fueled los ntawm tsoom fwv stimulus thiab tsov rog ntawm Ukraine, ntev theem ntawm kev nce nqi siab thawb Fed kom pib rau qhov kev nruj kev lag luam nruj tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo - kev lag luam poob thiab ua rau muaj kev ntshai kev poob nyiaj txiag. "Cov tib neeg tau raug kev txom nyem los ntawm kev nce nqi siab," Fed Chair Jerome Powell ua tim khawv ua ntej Congress lub lim tiam dhau los, ceeb toom tias nws tseem yog "tseem ceeb heev" rau Fed los kho tus nqi ruaj ntseg, ua ntej lees paub tias nws yuav yog "kev nyuaj heev" kom tsis txhob muaj kev poob qis thaum ua li ntawd.
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/07/01/are-we-already-in-a-recession-yes-according-to-fed-indicator-with-excellent-track- cov ntaub ntawv/