Cov nqi roj av tau yooj yim dhau los ntawm $ 120 / bbl rau lawv qib siab tshaj plaws hauv peb lub hlis tom qab Saudi Arabia tsa tus nqi muag khoom ntawm nws Arab lub teeb crude rau Asia. Cov tub lag luam hluav taws xob tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa loj heev uas cov khoom siv yuav nyob ruaj khov thiab txuas ntxiv txhawb nqa cov nqi roj siab uas tau muab rau lub sijhawm luv luv.
Hais txog kev lag luam nruj dua, ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tau tsa lawv cov nqi roj cov hom phiaj, nrog Citi hais tias lawv cia siab tias Lavxias teb sab kev tsim khoom thiab xa tawm yuav poob los ntawm 1M-1.5 M bbl / hnub los ntawm xyoo kawg 2022.
Tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob, ntau cov khoom lag luam roj tau ua lag luam ntawm txhua lub sijhawm siab, uas yog ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), EOG Cov Kev Pab (NYSE: EOG), Marathon Roj av Corp. (NYSE: MPC), Lub Tuam Txhab Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Civitas Resources (NYSE: CIVI), Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL), Oasis Roj av (NASDAQ: OAS) thiab Cov chaw muaj txiaj ntsig Matador (NYSE: MTDR).
Tab sis tam sim no ib ntu ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau ceeb toom tias cov nqi roj rally tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev phom sij ntawm kev sib tsoo.
"Cov tub lag luam hluav taws xob tau ntseeg siab tias cov roj lag luam no yuav nyob ruaj khov vim qhov kev cia siab luv luv los ntawm OPEC + thiab Asmeskas, tab sis nws tau nce siab dua. Exhaustion tuaj yeem nyob hauv," Ed Moya, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam loj ntawm Oanda, tau hais rau Bloomberg.
Tseeb, muaj ib rooj plaub yuav tsum tau ua tias lub zog sector yuav overheating.
Txog tam sim no xyoo no txog rau Lub Rau Hli 7, tsuas yog ib qho xwb S&P 500 sector tuaj yeem thov tau qhov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb-zog- thiab nws tau nce ntau: lub sector qhov kev nyiam tshaj plaws, Lub Zog Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR Nyiaj Txiag (NYSEARCA:XLE) tau nce 56.3%. Kev siv hluav taws xob tsuas yog lwm qhov kev lag luam hauv ntsuab, tab sis kev lag luam 2% YTD nce tsis muaj dab tsi tiag tiag los sau hauv tsev. Hauv qhov sib piv, S&P 500 tab tom mus dhau ib qho xyoo dhau los, tau poob 14.8% YTD.
Lwm qhov kev ntsuas kuj qhia tias cov nqi roj (thiab cov khoom lag luam) tuaj yeem nyob ze rau thaj chaw overbought.
Lub sij hawm ntev nruab nrab kub-Oil piv tau tias ib ooj kub yuav yuav 16.53 barrels roj. Txhua lub sij hawm ib ooj kub yuav yuav ntau tshaj 16.53 barrels ntawm cov roj txhais tau tias yog cov roj pheej yig los yog kub yog kim. Hloov pauv, roj tau raug suav hais tias yog kim lossis kub pheej yig thaum twg ib ooj kub yuav tsawg dua 16.53 chim.
Related: Cov nqi roj poob rau me Crude, Roj av Inventory Tsim
Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats thiab Amy Sergeant tau hais tias txawm hais tias cov roj-kub piv tau keeb kwm yog qhov ntsuas tsis zoo ntawm cov nqi roj yav tom ntej, nws tseem tuaj yeem txaus siab rau cov tub ua lag luam nrhiav kev taw qhia ntawm cov nqi roj. Paub txog qhov no tuaj yeem pab cov tub ua lag luam txiav txim siab seb lawv yuav tsum tau yuav cov roj ntau dua thiab muag lawv cov kub, lossis rov ua dua.
Tam sim no Gold-Oil piv ntawm 15.61 qhia tias tam sim no WTI tus nqi ntawm $ 118.30 / chim yog me ntsis ntawm sab siab dua, thiab xav tau poob rau ~ $ 117.71 / chim.
Txawm li cas los xij, lwm qhov kev ntsuas qhia tau hais tias cov roj thiab cov khoom lag luam tau nce nqi.
Prof. Robert Shiller ntawm Yale University tau tsim lub Shiller P / E los ntsuas kev lag luam tus nqi. Lub Shiller P / E yog qhov ntsuas kev lag luam tsim nyog ntau dua li qhov P / E piv vim tias nws tshem tawm qhov hloov pauv ntawm qhov sib piv los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam. Txawm hais tias kev ntsuas ntsuas yog qhov tsis zoo rau lub sijhawm luv luv, lawv yog qhov kev kwv yees zoo ntawm cov nqi lag luam mus sij hawm ntev. Shiller P / E piv tau ntseeg tau kwv yees kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam tshaj 10 xyoo.
Lub zog hluav taws xob tam sim no muaj Shiller P / E ntawm 37.20, tsuas yog Av (47.10), Consumer Cyclical (43.90), thiab Technology (39.10) yog kim dua.
Rau kev sib piv, S&P 500 muaj Shiller P / E ntawm 32.10 tab sis nws cov P / E piv ntawm 20.8 yog me ntsis siab dua lub zog 20.7.
Uas tau hais tias, tseem muaj qee qhov kev sib tham zoo hauv cov roj thiab roj. Nov yog tsib.
Kev Lag Luam Cap: $ 14.9B
P/E Ratio (Fwd): 5.52
YTD rov qab: 68.2%
Ovintiv Inc.(NYSE:OVV) yog Denver, Colorado-raws li lub tuam txhab hluav taws xob uas, ua ke nrog nws cov chaw ua haujlwm, koom nrog kev tshawb nrhiav, kev tsim kho, kev tsim khoom, thiab kev lag luam ntawm cov roj av, roj, thiab cov kua roj ntsha.
Lub tuam txhab cov cuab tam tseem ceeb suav nrog Permian nyob rau sab hnub poob Texas thiab Anadarko nyob rau sab hnub poob-central Oklahoma; thiab Montney nyob rau sab qaum teb British Columbia thiab sab hnub poob Alberta. Nws lwm yam khoom muaj nqis suav nrog Bakken hauv North Dakota, thiab Uinta hauv nruab nrab Utah; thiab Horn River nyob rau sab qaum teb ntawm British Columbia, thiab Wheatland nyob rau sab qab teb Alberta.
Lub hli tas los, Mizuho tau hloov kho OVV rau $ 78 los ntawm $ 54 (zoo rau 32% upside rau tus nqi tam sim no), hais txog kev txhim kho tailwinds.
Kev Lag Luam Cap: $ 6.8B
P/E Ratio (Fwd): 5.73
YTD Rov qab: 64.6%
Lwm lub tuam txhab Denver, Colorado E&P, Civitas Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CIVI) tsom mus rau kev nrhiav tau, kev tsim kho, thiab tsim cov roj thiab cov nkev hauv thaj av Rocky Mountain, feem ntau hauv Wattenberg Field ntawm Denver-Julesburg Basin ntawm Colorado.
Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2021, nws tau ua pov thawj reserves 397.7 MMBoe suav nrog 143.6 MMbbls ntawm cov roj crude, 106.0 MMbbls ntawm cov kua roj ntsha, thiab 888.5 Bcf ntawm cov nkev.
Benjamin Halliburton, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm Lub Tsev Benjamins, tau pom zoo yuav Civitas hais tias lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tshuav nyiaj li cas thiab nce nyiaj dawb tuaj yeem txhawb nqa cov shares mus rau $ 110 xyoo tom ntej (31.7% upside), thiab nws cov nyiaj faib tawm txhua xyoo tuaj yeem ncav cuag $ 6 los ntawm $1.63 tam sim no.
Kev Lag Luam Cap: $ 3.9B
P/E Ratio (Fwd): 6.26
YTD rov qab: 53.4%
Enerplus Corporation (NYSE:ERF)(TSX:ERF), ua ke nrog cov koom haum, koom nrog hauv kev tshawb nrhiav thiab tsim cov roj av thiab cov nkev hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab Canada. Lub tuam txhab cov roj thiab cov khoom siv roj ntsha muaj nyob hauv North Dakota, Colorado, thiab Pennsylvania; thiab Alberta, British Columbia, thiab Saskatchewan.
Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2021, lub tuam txhab tau ua pov thawj ntxiv qhov peev xwm tag nrho ntawm kwv yees li 8.2 lab barrels (MMbbls) ntawm lub teeb thiab nruab nrab roj av; 20.7 MMbbls ntawm hnyav crude roj; 299.3 MMbbls ntawm cov roj nruj; 56.2 MMbbls ntawm cov kua roj ntsha ntuj; 19.7 billion cubic feet (Bcf) ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide; thiab 1,367.9 Bcf ntawm shale gas.
Related: Kev nce siab ntawm cov nqi roj tsuas yog nce ntxiv
Jason Bouvier, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Scotiabank, hais rau Nyiaj Txiag Post tau xaiv Enerplus raws li ib qho ntawm Canada lub zog tuam txhab uas muag nrog qhov qis tshaj capex breakevens (suav nrog hedging profits).
Kev Lag Luam Cap: $ 65.9B
P/E Ratio (Fwd): 6.76
YTD rov qab: 124.1%
Headquartered hauv Houston, Texas, Western Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) ua ke nrog nws cov chaw ua haujlwm, koom nrog kev nrhiav tau, tshawb nrhiav, thiab txhim kho cov roj thiab roj hauv Tebchaws Meskas, Middle East, Africa, thiab Latin America. Lub tuam txhab tseem muaj cov Chemical ntu uas tsim thiab ua lag luam cov tshuaj yooj yim, suav nrog cov tshuaj chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, tshuaj poov tshuaj, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, thiab calcium chloride; vinyls muaj xws li vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, thiab ethylene.
Lub hli dhau los, ecopetrol cov tshuaj (NYSE: EC) tshaj tawm kev pom zoo rau tsim plaub qhov tob tob tawm ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv ntawm Colombia nrog Occidental Petroleum. Ecopetrol tau tshaj tawm tias nws yuav muaj 40% feem pua ntawm cov blocks thaum Occidental subsidiary Anadarko Colombia yuav muaj 60% feem pua thiab yuav ua haujlwm.
Kev Lag Luam Cap: $ 78.1B
P/E Ratio (Fwd): 7.19
YTD rov qab: 55.3%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE: CNQ) tau, tshawb nrhiav, tsim, tsim, ua lag luam, thiab muag cov roj av, roj av, thiab cov kua roj (NGLs).
Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2020, lub tuam txhab muaj pov thawj tag nrho cov roj crude, bitumen, thiab NGLs reserves ntawm 10,528 lab chim (MMbbl); tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj ntxiv rau cov roj av, bitumen, thiab NGLs reserves yog 13,271 MMbbl; pov thawj SCO reserves yog 6,998 MMbbl; tag nrho cov pov thawj ntxiv rau qhov SCO reserves yog 7,535 MMbbl; pov thawj natural gas reserves yog 12,168 billion cubic feet (Bcf), thiab tag nrho cov pov thawj ntxiv rau tej zaum natural gas reserves yog 20,249 Bcf.
Lub hli tas los, CNQ tau tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Q1 thiab cov nyiaj tau los, ua ke nrog cov kev tshaj tawm yav dhau los thiab cov phiaj xwm yuav rov qab. Raws li nrog rau feem ntau cov phooj ywg, ib tug zoo Q1 luam yog yuav ua raws li los ntawm txawm zoo dua Q2 tau.
Los ntawm Alex Kimani rau Oilprice.com
Ntau Ntxiv Nyeem Los Ntawm Oilprice.com:
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-stocks-due-correction-220000479.html