Cov neeg yuav khoom hauv khw muag khoom noj hauv San Francisco, California, Asmeskas, hnub Monday, Tsib Hlis 2, 2022.
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Lub Plaub Hlis daim ntawv tshaj tawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam yuav tsum qhia tias kev nce nyiaj tau nce mus txog qhov siab kawg - kev txhim kho uas qee cov tub ua lag luam hais tias tuaj yeem ua rau kev lag luam ib ntus.
Tab sis cov kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag hais tias, txawm tias muaj kev lees paub hauv kev nce nqi hauv xov xwm, kev nce nqi tseem ceeb tuaj yeem nce txhua hli thiab nyob twj ywm siab rau lub hlis tom ntej. Core inflation tsis suav cov nqi khoom noj thiab lub zog.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm CPI tau xav tias yuav qhia txog kev nce nqi nce ntxiv 0.2% hauv lub Plaub Hlis, lossis 8.1% xyoo dhau los, raws li Dow Jones. Uas piv nrog ib tug whopping 1.2% nce hauv lub Peb Hlis, lossis nce 8.5%. xyoo dhau xyoo. Lub Plaub Hlis cov ntaub ntawv xav tau thaum 8:30 teev sawv ntxov ET Wednesday.
Core CPI yuav tsum nce 0.4% lossis 6% xyoo dhau los. Qhov ntawd piv nrog 0.3% hauv lub Peb Hlis, lossis 6.5% ntawm ib xyoos ib zaug.
Cov khoom lag luam gyrated hnub Tuesday ua ntej ntawm cov ntaub ntawv xav tau ntau. Cov S&P 500 xaus hnub nrog 0.25% nce, thiab Nasdaq ntxiv 0.98%. Cov Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab poob 84.96 pkt.
Qhov ze ze saib cov txiaj ntsig 10-xyoo Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag tau thim rov qab mus txog 2.99% Hnub Tuesday tom qab kev khiav nrawm mus txog 3.20% Hnub Monday. Bond yields - uas hloov pauv tus nqi - tau nce siab dua ntawm qhov nrawm nrawm ntawm qhov kev cia siab ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov paj laum nce siab.
"Kuv yuav tsis hais tag kis CPI tseem ceeb ntawm nws tus kheej. Kuv xav tias kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm lub Peb Hlis, tag kis thiab Tsib Hlis cov ntaub ntawv yuav zoo li qhov cuam tshuam loj, "said Ben Jeffery, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ruaj khov ntawm BMO.
Tab sis Jeffery tau hais tias daim ntawv tshaj tawm muaj lub sijhawm zoo los ua kev lag luam tawm, txawm li cas los xij.
"Kuv xav tias nws yuav rov hais dua qhov kev muag khoom uas peb pom tias tau coj 10s mus rau 3.20% ... Los yog kuv xav tias nws yuav txhawb kev poob siab ntau rau cov tub ua lag luam uas tau tos cov cim qhia tias kev nce nqi pib nce siab," nws hais.
Hauv kev lag luam Tshuag, qee cov tub ua lag luam hais tias cov ntaub ntawv tuaj yeem taw qhia qhov hloov pauv yog tias lub Plaub Hlis qhov nyiaj nce siab tuaj raws li qhov xav tau lossis tseem tsis muaj zog.
"Kuv xav tias kev ua lag luam, los ntawm kev pom kev, yog tsom mus rau kev sim los saum ntuj los ntau npaum li cas Fed yuav txav mus," said Tony Roth, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kub yuav yog qhov tsis zoo vim nws tuaj yeem txhais tau tias Fed yuav ua ib qho kev tawm tsam hnyav dua rau cov paj laum. Lub lim tiam dhau los, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tau taw qhia lub hauv paus bank tuaj yeem nce nqi los ntawm 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, lossis ib nrab-feem pua, ntawm txhua ob peb lub rooj sib tham tom ntej.
Kev ua lag luam tau ntshai txog kev nce nqi thiab tias Fed cov lus teb rau nws tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis.
"Kuv tsis xav tias qhov no yog qhov kawg ntawm qhov kev poob qis hauv kev ua lag luam ... Lub khw yuav tsum tau qis dua 20% ntawm qhov tsawg kawg nkaus. Yog tias peb tau txais cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag zoo dua, ces kuv xav tias 20% tuaj yeem yog hauv qab, "Roth hais. S&P 500 tawm ze li ntawm 17% los ntawm nws qhov siab.
"Yog tias cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tsis zoo li peb xav tias nws yuav yog, tsis yog lub hlis no nkaus xwb tab sis lub hlis sib law liag, ces kuv xav tias cov nqi lag luam rau kev lag luam poob qis, thiab tom qab ntawd nws poob 25% mus rau 40%, "Roth hais.
Roth tau hais tias muaj ob qhov kev pheej hmoo exogenous nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi, thiab ib qho tuaj yeem ua pov thawj tias yog ib qho teeb meem rau kev lag luam. Ib qho yog qhov tsis paub nyob ib puag ncig cov roj thiab roj cov khoom lag luam thiab cov nqi poob siab tshwm sim los ntawm Russia qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm Ukraine, thiab lwm qhov yog Tuam Tshoj qhov tseeb Covid-txog kev kaw thiab cuam tshuam rau cov saw hlau.
Roth tau hais tias "Tsis muaj leej twg paub tias lawv yuav ua li cas tawm ... Txawm li cas los xij ib qho ntawm cov no tuaj yeem yog qhov teeb meem loj dua li kev lag luam tau xav txog tam sim no," Roth hais.
Aneta Markowska, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Jefferies, tau hais tias nws cia siab tias yuav tau txais daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev pom zoo, nrog 0.3% nce hauv xov xwm CPI thiab 0.5% dhia hauv qhov tseem ceeb. Nws xav tias kev lag luam tsom mus rau qhov tsis ncaj ncees lawm thiab cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum txhawj xeeb ntxiv txog qhov nyiaj txiag poob qis npaum li cas.
"Kuv xav tias ntau tus tib neeg tab tom tsom mus rau lub xyoo dhau ib xyoo tus nqi qeeb, thiab kuv xav tias yuav pab tau cov neeg siv khoom vim nws zoo li cov nyiaj ua haujlwm tiag tiag yuav yog qhov zoo rau kev hloov pauv hauv lub Plaub Hlis ntawm ib hlis dhau ib hlis," nws hais. "Tab sis yog tias peb tau txais qhov nrawm hauv qhov tseem ceeb rov qab mus rau 0.5% uas peb tab tom npaj, qhov ntawd yog teeb meem rau Fed. Yog tias koj ua txhua xyoo, koj tab tom khiav ntawm 6%, thiab qhov ntawd yuav txhais tau tias tsis muaj kev poob qis. "
Markowska tau sau tseg tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab xav tias kev nce nqi yuav qeeb rau 4% xyoo no thiab 2.5% xyoo tom ntej. Nws tau hais tias "Cov lus nug uas peb yuav tsum nug yog peb tab tom taug kev mus rau qhov kev kwv yees thiab yog tias tsis yog, Fed tuaj yeem muaj txoj cai loj dua li qhov lawv xav txog," nws hais.
Kev nkag siab yog tias cov teeb meem kev nce nqi yog cov saw hlau uas tau tsav, tab sis cov teeb meem no tau ploj mus, Markowska ntxiv.
“Kuv xav tias lub nkoj tau caij nkoj. Peb dhau los ntawm kev xa khoom xa tuaj. Qhov no yog cov kev pabcuam. Nov yog kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm, "nws hais. "Tsuas yog vim tias peb nce siab thiab cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb nce zuj zus tuaj, qhov ntawd tsis kho qhov teeb meem. Qhov teeb meem tam sim no nyob txhua qhov chaw. Nws nyob hauv kev pabcuam. Nws nyob hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab qhov ntawd yuav tsis ploj mus ntawm nws tus kheej ... Peb xav tau cov nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb kom tau nqis mus rau 0.2%, 0.3% lub hli dhau ib hlis, thiab peb xav tau nws nyob ntawd ib ntus. "
Barclays US tus kws lag luam nyiaj txiag Pooja Sriram tau hais tias nws tsis xav tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau zoo siab heev txog kev nce nqi nce siab, txij li qhov yuav muaj teeb meem yog qhov yuav nqis los sai npaum li cas.
Nws tau hais tias "Rau Fed kom muaj kev sib haum xeeb tias kev nce nqi yuav nqis los, peb yuav tsum tau txais qhov tseem ceeb tsis muaj zog CPI luam tawm," nws hais. "Lub taub hau CPI yuav nyuaj los nqis los vim tias lub zog tivthaiv tau hloov pauv."
Lub zog ntsuas tau nce 11% hauv lub Peb Hlis, thiab nws yuav tsawg dua ntawm kev txhawb nqa rau tag nrho kev nce nqi hauv lub Plaub Hlis vim tias cov nqi roj av poob. Economists hais tias lub zog yuav yog qhov teeb meem loj dua nyob rau hauv lub Tsib Hlis cov ntaub ntawv, txij li thaum cov roj av tau nce mus sau qib dua.
Qee tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam cia siab tias tus nqi siv tsheb yuav poob rau lub Plaub Hlis, tab sis Markowska tau hais tias cov ntaub ntawv nws saib xyuas qhia tau tias nce qib ntawm cov khw muag khoom.