Lub Dallas Fed tso tawm nws Texas Manufacturing Outlook Kev Tshawb Fawb, nrov npe hu ua daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev lag luam, uas muab cov kev nkag siab zoo tshaj plaws hauv cheeb tsam ntawm lub sector.
Texas kev lag luam yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim khoom noj qab haus huv thoob plaws hauv Tebchaws Meskas, vim nws yog lub xeev kev lag luam loj thib ob, thiab muaj kev koom tes loj tshaj plaws rau kev xa tawm hauv tebchaws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov zog khoom.
Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?
Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.
Yog li, cov ntaub ntawv hauv xeev los ntawm Texas feem ntau muab qhov qhia tau zoo ntawm kev nthuav dav thoob plaws hauv Tebchaws Meskas.
Hauv kev tshaj tawm, tus lej zoo txhais tau hais tias feem ntau ntawm cov tuam txhab tshawb fawb tau tshaj tawm txog kev txhim kho hauv kev lag luam ib puag ncig, thaum qhov kev nyeem tsis zoo qhia tau hais tias feem ntau ntawm cov koom haum tau ntsib cov xwm txheej tsis zoo.
Ua ntej ntawm FOMC lub rooj sib tham uas pib tag kis, Dallas Fed tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau qhia tias Kev Ua Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam General tuaj ntawm -8.4, ib qho kev txhim kho zoo tshaj lub hli dhau los thaum sau npe nws thib cuaj qhov kev nyeem tsis zoo.
Tag nrho qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim khoom lag luam tsis tshua muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm 0.2, piv rau 9.1 thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022.
Kev siv peev xwm kuj tau qeeb rau 6.0, piv rau 7.9, thaum cov khoom xa tuaj raug ntaus, poob rau -6.3, piv rau 0.4 hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm dhau los. Qhov no yog qhov kev nyeem tsis zoo thib peb rau kev xa khoom hauv plaub lub hlis dhau los.
Kev tsim khoom yav tom ntej yog qhov chaw ci ntsa iab, tau hloov siab dua mus rau 16.1, nce los ntawm 10.5, thiab kos lub hli thib plaub ntawm kev nce ntxiv.
Txawm hais tias muaj kev xav tau zoo ntawm cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam, nws yuav tsum raug sau tseg tias qhov no yog qhov zoo ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 37.7.
Kev txiav txim tshiab txuas ntxiv mus rau daim ntawv cog lus, ntsuas ntawm -4.0 raws li tiv thaiv -11.0 nyob rau lub hli dhau los, ua rau kev lag luam ib puag ncig qeeb.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev thov yog anaemic, nrog rau cov sectors xws li textiles, ntawv tsim, luam ntawv ua haujlwm thiab hlau kev tsim khoom pov thawj pom tias muaj kev poob qis hauv kev nug txog kev lag luam.
Ntawm cov ntawv ceeb toom, kev txiav txim tsis tau hloov pauv ntau, los ntawm -1.3 thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, mus rau -6.7 hauv Lub Ib Hlis 2023, deb tshaj qhov nruab nrab ntawm -1.5.
Ntawm qhov kev txaus siab tshwj xeeb hauv kev khiav mus rau FOMC lub rooj sib tham, yog cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw thiab cov khoom tiav.
Ob pawg nyob twj ywm zoo, tab sis nruab nrab ntawm lub hli dhau los, nrog rau cov khoom siv raw cov nqi ntsuas poob los ntawm 21.9 mus rau 20.5, thiab cov khoom tiav lawm los ntawm 10.9 txog 9.9.
Cov ntawv ceeb toom qhia tias cov nqi nce siab tsawg kawg yog ib feem tseem ceeb hauv cov haus thiab kev lag luam luam yeeb, ua rau muaj kev nce qib siab dua tab sis kev muag khoom poob.
Kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam tau nce siab dua nrog Lub Ib Hlis 2023 sau npe nyeem ntawv ntawm 17.6, tus lej siab tshaj plaws txij li Lub Xya Hli 2022.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov nyiaj ua haujlwm thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev ntsuas, txawm hais tias ntau heev hauv thaj chaw zoo tau txo qis los ntawm 34.2 hauv lub hli dhau los, mus rau 30.5.
Qhov no yog qhov kev nyeem qis tshaj plaws txij li lub Peb Hlis 2021, uas tau sau tseg ntawm 27.8, qhia txog qhov muaj peev xwm tsis muaj zog hauv qee feem ntawm lub xeev kev tsim khoom lag luam.
Txawm li cas los xij, tsuas yog 2.9% ntawm cov neeg teb tau tshaj tawm qhov txo qis ntawm cov nyiaj hli thiab cov txiaj ntsig.
Nrog rau kev ua lag luam dav dav uas txuas ntxiv tsis zoo, qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom thiab cov thawj coj tau sib xyaw.
Kev Ua Lag Luam Yav Tom Ntej Kev Ua Lag Luam Kev Ua Lag Luam tau nyob tsis zoo ntawm -9.1, kev txhim kho me ntsis los ntawm Lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj -9.6, tab sis kos rau 9.th Kev nyeem ntawv tsis zoo sib law liag.
Lub tuam txhab kev pom zoo nce mus rau -2.5, qhov tsis zoo rau 11th Lub hli sib law liag, qhov tsis paub tseeb hauv qhov kev xav tau nce siab dua mus rau 16.8, los ntawm 15.6.
Kev tsim khoom hauv cheeb tsam
Kev tsim khoom lag luam tau nce zuj zus mus rau ntau xyoo dhau los thiab tau muab tso rau hauv qhov tsis zoo nyob thoob plaws ntau qhov kev tshawb fawb.
Txawm hais tias Dallas, Philadelphia thiab Kansas City muaj peev xwm qhia tau qee qhov kev txhim kho hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, New York thiab Richmond txuas ntxiv tsis zoo, hloov ntawm -11.2 mus rau -32.9, thiab los ntawm +1.0 txog -11.0, raws li.
Outlook
Txawm hais tias Dallas manufacturing Performance index cim 32nd Lub hlis sib law liag ntawm kev nthuav dav, nws zoo li tiaj tus thiab tuaj yeem nkag mus rau thaj chaw tsis zoo, thaum tus nqi raug tshem tawm thaum muaj kev ntshai poob qis.
Txawm hais tias pessimistic kev xav tau yooj yim, cov cim tseem ceeb xws li kev thov, kev tsim khoom thiab kev xa khoom tau cog lus, qhia tias lub hauv paus tsim khoom yuav txuas ntxiv nws qhov kev ua tsis tau zoo hauv Q1.
Ntau qhov kev tshawb fawb los ntawm ntau lub Federal Reserve chaw ua haujlwm qhia tias kev poob qis hauv kev tsim khoom tuaj yeem nthuav dav.
Tau hais tias, Dallas Fed daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas kev cia siab tshwm sim qee qhov tsis sib xws, nrog rau yav tom ntej kev lag luam kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis kev tsim khoom tau kwv yees nce. Cov ntsuas no yuav zoo dua nyob rau hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm tom ntej yog tias Fed nruj rau lub lim tiam no.
Tau qhov twg los: https://invezz.com/news/2023/01/30/amid-recessionary-fears-texas-manufacturing-disappoints-for-the-ninth-consecutive-month/