Ambitious Electric Tsheb Muag Lub Hom Phiaj Tej zaum yuav luv luv thiab Reprieve ICE Fais Fab; Qhia

Automakers tau kwv yees ntau dhau ntawm kev ua lag luam rau lub tsheb hluav taws xob thiab yuav nkim ntau lab raws li lawv tau raug yuam kom rov ua dua cov phiaj xwm los pov tseg cov tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv (ICE), raws li tsab ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm Jefferies University.

Tab sis qhov no tseem yog ib qho kev pom tsawg heev, thiab cov kws tshaj lij pem hauv ntej tau ua raws li lawv qhov kev xav tias tshwj xeeb hauv Tebchaws Europe lub kiv puag ncig hluav taws xob yog rau khaws thiab ICE lub zog hnub raug suav. LMC Automotive khaws nws qhov kev twv ua ntej roj teeb hluav taws xob muag hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav nrawm mus rau 61.2% ntawm kev ua lag luam los ntawm 2030, nce los ntawm 9.6% xyoo tas los, thaum Schmidt Automotive reckons 60% ntawm sedan thiab SUV muag hauv Western Europe yuav yog roj teeb hluav taws xob tsheb (BEV. ) thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo caum.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm, sau los ntawm Michael C. Lynch, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Amherst, Massachusetts-based Strategic Energy & Economic Research, cia siab tias lub ntiaj teb BEV kev muag khoom yuav ze rau qis dua 20% ntawm International Energy Agency's (IEA) 3 scenario forecast ntawm 20/40 / 60% los ntawm 2030.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau hais tias kev qhuas ntawm lub tsheb fais fab tau tshaj tawm, thiab kev muag khoom loj heev rau xyoo 2030 tsis tshua muaj kev sib ntsib. Kev txhim kho hauv roj teeb thev naus laus zis, tus nqi qis dua, thiab kev txhim kho cov txheej txheem tsim nyog yuav tsis zoo li yuav tshwm sim. Kev tshaj tawm xov xwm tau raug tswj hwm los ntawm cov neeg txhawb nqa uas nthuav tawm lub tsheb hluav taws xob zoo thiab tsis quav ntsej lawv qhov tsis zoo, suav nrog tus nqi siab. Qhov zoo ntawm ib puag ncig ntawm BEV piv rau ICE lub zog feem ntau nyob ze rau qhov tsis muaj. Kev lag luam txoj kev xav nrog kev txhawb nqa kev nqis peev loj los sim thiab ua kom BEVs sib npaug nrog ICE yuav ua tsis tiav. Kev mus los ntev, kev kub ceev yog dhau BEV qib them nyiaj. Qhov qhov muag tsis pom kev no yuav tsum tau hloov los ntawm qhov pom tseeb ntawm qhov zoo ntawm lub tsheb hluav taws xob - kev mus ncig zoo heev thiab kev mus ncig hauv zos txhua hnub thiab cov tsheb khiav hauv tsev kawm ntawv - thiab pheej yig dua, cov roj teeb tsis muaj zog yuav tsum yog lub hom phiaj nrog kev xav tau los ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob, tsis yog cov nyiaj them se.

Cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam kev nqis peev loj yog nyob rau hauv kev puas tsuaj.

“Ib nrab ntawm trillion las muaj kev pheej hmoo. Nws tau kwv yees tias ntau dua $ 500 nphom tau cog lus los ntawm cov neeg tsim tsheb ntawm BEVs thiab roj teeb nyob rau 5 txog 10 xyoo tom ntej. German automakers tab tom npaj $ 185 nphom los ntawm 2030, Suav tshaj $ 100 nphom, thaum Ford thiab GM npaj siab yuav siv $ 60 nphom los ntawm 2025. Cov Japanese automakers loj tau cog lus tsuas yog $ 40 billion, tej zaum vim lawv tseem txhawb nqa ob qho tib si roj hluav taws xob tsheb thiab hydrogen. roj cell tsheb raws li kev cog lus ntau dua, "daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau hais.

Ford Motor nyuam qhuav tshaj tawm tias nws yuav tshaj tawm 3 lub roj teeb-hluav taws xob tshiab thiab 4 lub tsheb nyob hauv Europe los ntawm 2024. Ford thiab lwm lub tuam txhab tsheb loj xws li Renault, Peugeot, thiab Volvo, tau tshaj tawm tias lawv yuav yog tag nrho cov hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Europe los ntawm 2030. Volkswagen tau hais tias 70% ntawm nws cov European muag yuav tag nrho cov hluav taws xob los ntawm 2030, Mercedes vam tias yuav ua tiav tag nrho cov hluav taws xob los ntawm thaum ntawd, thaum Jaguar yuav ua nws los ntawm 2025.

Qhov kev txav mus los puag txhua lub tsheb hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Europe tau raug yuam los ntawm European Union (EU) txoj cai lij choj uas ua rau cov pa roj carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions nruj heev los ntawm ICE tsheb, lub roj teeb hluav taws xob yuav yog tib txoj kev xaiv. Nyob rau hauv lem, kev loj hlob sai nyob rau hauv hluav taws xob muag tsheb tau ignited los ntawm loj loj nyiaj pab los ntawm tsoom fwv.

raws li Schmidt tsheb, roj teeb hluav taws xob tsheb (BEV) kev muag khoom yuav ncav cuag 60% hauv Western Europe los ntawm 2030, lossis 8.4 lab tsheb. BEV muag ntau dua ob npaug rau xyoo 2020 kom qis dua 750,000 thiab dhia dua hauv 2021 nrog kev muag khoom ntawm 1,143,000 lossis 10.3% ntawm kev ua lag luam.

Qhov no sawv cev rau kev lag luam uas tsis tshua muaj nqi thiab tus nqi siab ntawm cov khau zoo heev, lossis cov tsheb uas them los ntawm lawv cov tswv ntiav haujlwm. Qee cov tuam txhab lag luam txhawj xeeb tias cov tsheb nkag mus rau qib ICE raug nqi tawm ntawm kev ua lag luam, cov neeg ntawm cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab yuav raug yuam tawm ntawm lawv lub tsheb thiab mus rau pej xeem thauj. Qhov no muaj qhov cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau yav tom ntej ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb loj siv los piling 'em siab thiab muag 'em pheej yig.

Stellantis CEO Carlos tavares ceeb toom xyoo tas los automaker cov nyiaj txiag yuav nyuaj rau cov xwm txheej no.

"Lub sijhawm 5 xyoos tom ntej no peb yuav tsum zom cov khoom lag luam 10% hauv ib xyoos hauv kev lag luam uas tau siv los xa 2 mus rau 3% kev txhim kho kev tsim khoom. Lub neej yav tom ntej yuav qhia rau peb tias leej twg yuav tuaj yeem zom tau qhov no, thiab leej twg yuav ua tsis tiav. Peb tab tom tso kev lag luam rau ntawm qhov txwv, "Tavares tau hais.

Hnub qub tau tsim los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntawm Groupe PSA thiab Fiat Chrysler Automobiles hauv 2021 thiab suav nrog cov npe xws li Peugeot, Citroen, Opel, Vauxhall, Fiat, Chrysler, thiab Alfa Romeo thiab yog lub npe thib ob loj tshaj plaws hauv Tebchaws Europe tom qab Volkswagen.

Thiab xyoo tas los Tavares tau hais li no.

"Kuv tsis tuaj yeem xav txog lub zej zog kev ywj pheej uas tsis muaj kev ywj pheej ntawm kev txav mus los vim nws tsuas yog rau cov neeg muaj nyiaj thiab tag nrho lwm tus yuav siv kev thauj mus los pej xeem." Tavares yws tias cov kev cai ntawm CO2 emissions tau ua nom tswv thiab tsis tau tsim los ntawm kev lag luam. Nws tau hais tias nws yuav zoo dua kom tau mus txog qhov teeb meem nrog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg thiab maj mam hloov ICE tsheb nrog hluav taws xob.

"Kuv xav tias peb tuaj yeem ua tau zoo dua nrog ntau lub thev naus laus zis, tsis yog ib qho thev naus laus zis," Tavares hais.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm Jefferies hais txog International Energy Agency (IEA) kev kwv yees rau ntiaj teb BEV kev lag luam nkag nrog 3 qhov xwm txheej ntawm 20, 40, thiab 60% los ntawm 2030, thiab sib piv qhov no nrog cov neeg tsim tsheb "uas npaj yuav muaj 50 lossis 100% BEV muag los ntawm Xyoo 2030, thiab nws tau pom tseeb tias cov hom phiaj no tsis muaj tseeb, xav tau qhov kev xav ntawm kev nce loj hauv tsoomfwv kev txhawb nqa thiab / lossis kev ua haujlwm loj. Ob leeg ua tau, tsis muaj qhov yuav tshwm sim. "

LMC Automotive cia siab tias lub ntiaj teb BEV kev muag khoom yuav ncav cuag 33.2% ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv 2030 ntawm 30.7 lab, nce los ntawm 6.8% xyoo tas los. Tuam Tshoj txoj kev muag khoom yuav nce mus txog 38.3% (12.2%) hauv 2030, thaum Asmeskas yuav poob qis nrog 35% (2.8%)

Al Bedwell, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas nrog LMC Automotive, tau hais tias BEVs yuav yeej, tsis yog tsawg kawg vim tias cov ICE yuav raug cai los ntawm tsoomfwv.

"Hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tuam Tshoj, dhau sijhawm ICE tsheb tsuas yog tsis raug tso cai muag yog li yuav tsis muaj kev xaiv. Qhov koj tuaj yeem tau txais, yog BEVs tseem kim dua li ICE, yog tias kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis kuv tsis xav tias qhov kev hloov mus rau xoom-emission tsheb, feem ntau BEV, tuaj yeem nres tshwj tsis yog net xoom (CO2) cov hom phiaj raug tso tseg. - thiab qhov ntawd zoo li tsis zoo li, "Bedwell hais.

Nws tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Matt Schmidt, uas tshaj tawm txhua hli European Electric Cars Flash Report , hais tias lub tswv yim ambition lub hom phiaj yuav tsis ua kom tiav yog feem ntau los ntawm US foundations.

"Lub zog muaj tseeb nyob hauv Europe. Cov neeg tsim khoom tab tom nqa ntau BEVs rau ntawm lub platform tshwj xeeb thiab lub hom phiaj kom ua tiav kev lag luam ntawm qhov ntsuas thiab ua tau raws li qib CO2 tshiab tau tsim los siv los ntawm 2025. Lub zog ntawd nce ntxiv los ntawm 2027 thaum nruj dua EU cov cai tau qhia rau cov qauv tshiab thiab cov txiaj ntsig zoo sib xws yuav tau ntsib thiab lub ntsiab lus tipping yuav zoo li yuav ua tiav qhov twg feem ntau ntawm kev muag tsheb tshiab hauv Tebchaws Europe tau mus rau 50%. Txij xyoo 2028 peb yuav pom cov neeg tsim khoom tawm ntawm ICE kev sib tw vim lawv tsis tuaj yeem pom rooj plaub ua lag luam thiab mus rau EV ntshiab, "Schmidt tau hais.

Tab sis daim ntawv tshaj tawm Jefferies xav tias qhov no yuav tsis ua haujlwm thiab cov neeg tsim tsheb yuav raug yuam kom rov ua haujlwm ICE.

"Thaum kawg, nws zoo li yuav muaj ntau tus neeg tsim tsheb yuav tsum rov tsim kho lawv cov tsheb thiab rov kho lawv cov chaw tsim khoom kom haum rau qhov loj tshaj qhov xav tau ntawm ICEVs hauv lawv qhov muag. Qhov no tuaj yeem txhais ua kev poob nyiaj txiag loj thiab cov nqi siab dua rau cov neeg siv khoom ntev. Kev hloov pauv ntawm lub zog tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus thiab ua tiav zoo, tab sis nrog qhov tseem ceeb ntau dua ntawm decarbonizing lub zog tsim hluav taws xob, thiab kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob ntau lub tsheb tuaj yeem ua pov thawj lwm yam khoom siv hauv kev tsis txaus ntseeg. "

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias rau BEVs kom ua tiav ntawm qib xav tau los ntawm tsoomfwv thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom lawv xav tau kom ua tiav ntau dua li qib niche uas lawv tau mus txog raws li cov tsheb khoom kim heev. Raws li kev txhim kho roj teeb, qhov kev xav tias cov nqi yuav inevitably poob mus rau theem ntawm kev them taus dav dav tau los nyob rau hauv lub siab tsis ntev los no raws li cov khoom siv chains buckle thiab kev nom kev tswv xws li Russia tsov rog nrog Ukraine poob nthav cuam tshuam. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tseem cuam tshuam qhov kev thov BEVs kuj huv si, hais txog Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tswj hwm hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob, tab sis nrog "kev cia siab hnyav rau cov thee".

Puas yog nws tsis yog qhov tseeb dua rau kev lag luam tsheb kom lees paub qhov muaj zog thiab qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob thiab mloog zoo rau cov tsheb me nrog cov roj teeb tsis muaj zog?

"Yog lawm, kuv pom zoo," Lynch hais hauv email pauv.

"Kuv xav tias lub physics ntawm lub zog cia tam sim no txhais tau hais tias BEVs yuav mus rau nruab nrab, tsheb kim - 'cov khoom ua si kim rau cov tub nplua nuj'. Qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm BEV yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj rau kev mus ncig deb, raws li koj tau hais, thiab kuv pom zoo tias BEV yuav ua lub tsheb zoo pheej yig - yog tias nws tuaj yeem ua pheej yig dua. Zoo li lub qhov cub microwave, uas yog ib qho yooj yim tab sis tsis zoo rau txhua yam. Tab sis yog tias microwaves yog 50% kim dua li qhov cub zoo li qub, lawv cov khoom lag luam yuav qis dua, "Lynch hais.