Cov tub lag luam hauv Suav cov khoom lag luam, ntev-siv rau qhov mob, tsuas yog pom kev xav tsis thoob. Dab tsi los tom ntej?
Lub rally tau hnov ntau dua, nrog rau
Invesco Golden Zaj Tuam Tshoj ETF
(PGJ) nce 33%, ntaus nws cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej txhua hnub nce ntawm 17%. Hong koob
Hang Seng Index Cov
nce 9.1% rau hnub Wednesday thiab nqa lub zog mus rau hnub Thursday nrog nce 7% - qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj ob hnub rau qhov ntsuas txij li xyoo 1998.
Thaum qhov kev nce qib tseem ceeb, qhov kev sib tw yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev thim rov qab ntawm kev poob tsis ntev los no. Kev muag khoom qeeb thiab dab tuag hauv Suav cov khoom lag luam xyoo dhau los nyuam qhuav khaws pace, Nrog rau cov
Suab Seng
pom nws qhov poob qis tshaj plaws peb hnub txij li xyoo 2008 ua ntej nws rov qab mus rau ib nrab lub lis piam. Qhov Performance index tseem qis dua yuav luag 8% xyoo no, nrog cov khoom hauv
Alibaba
thiab
JD.com
zoo ib yam li tob hauv liab hauv 2022.
Ua tsaug rau qhov hloov pauv rau hnub Wednesday yog xov xwm tawm ntawm Tuam Tshoj tias tsoomfwv yuav ua haujlwm los txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thiab txhawb kev lag luam Tshuag, nrog rau kev tshem tawm qhov kev rau txim rau kev tswj hwm ib puag ncig, suav nrog kev txhawj xeeb ib puag ncig US delistings.
Qhov kawg taw tes yog tshwj xeeb yog pab tau rau lub teb chaws embattled tech sector, uas muaj los nyob rau hauv kev tshuaj xyuas nruj los ntawm Beijing thiab Washington ib yam nkaus thiab pom ib lub tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws, Alibaba, poob yuav luag 50% ntawm nws cov nqi lag luam xyoo tas los.
Qee qhov kev zoo siab tau ploj mus rau hnub Thursday. Alibaba Tshuag tau nqis 7% nrog JD.com 5% qis dua. Twb tau, kev sib cav tau pib txog qhov kev hloov pauv txoj cai hauv Suav teb txhais tau li cas rau cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb xws li Alibaba, nrog rau kev lag luam loj.
Alibaba tseem tab tom ntsib teeb meem yav tom ntej. As Barron tus tau tshaj tawm yav dhau los, yam tsawg kawg yog ob yam tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum tau ua kom rov qab los ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam: Ib qho kev txhim kho ntawm kev tswj hwm ib puag ncig thiab kev hloov pauv hauv cov hauv paus ntawm Suav kev lag luam thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv.
Thaum cov xov xwm hnub Wednesday suav nrog kev nyeem qhov zoo-los ntawm kev tswj hwm pem hauv ntej, qhov kev tawm tsam tsis tshua muaj los daws qhov teeb meem. kev puas tsuaj loj ntawm kev ua lag luam tus nqi pom thoob plaws hauv Suav teb tech sector hauv xyoo tas los. Cov lus yuav tsum tau thim rov qab nrog kev nqis tes ua, tab sis Bo Pei, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm tus broker US Tiger Securities, hais rau Barron tus tias nws ntseeg tias peb tau pom "qhov taw tes tsis txaus ntseeg" hauv kev tswj hwm kev txhawj xeeb.
Daim duab yog ntau nyuaj rau qhov teeb meem ntawm Suav kev lag luam thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv, uas yog tseem ceeb rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab e-commerce zoo li Alibaba. Hu tawm ib pob hma ntawm cov neeg tswj xyuas nruj hauv Beijing yog ib yam; coj lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam thib ob loj tshaj plaws rau kev loj hlob nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis paub tseeb yog lwm qhov ua ke.
"Kev txawj ntse, thaum nws yuav tsis pom qhov cuam tshuam tam sim ntawd, cov kev txhawb nqa yuav tsum ua rau cov tub ua lag luam ntseeg siab tias qhov kev cuam tshuam tseem tuaj tom qab xyoo no," Pei hais.
Ib tus neeg sab hauv hauv Suav nyiaj txiag tau txais kev tos-thiab-saib tus cwj pwm. Danny Law, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Guotai Junan Securities, yog ib lub tuam txhab lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv Tuam Tshoj, hais rau Barron tus tias nws nyuaj rau kev tawm tswv yim txog kev lag luam kev xav, vim nws tsis paub meej tias Tuam Tshoj lub Xeev Pawg Saib Xyuas yuav ua tiav li cas.
Lwm tus muaj kev cia siab ntau dua.
“Thaum Tuam Tshoj tsoomfwv hais tias nws yuav ua ib yam dab tsi, nws ua. Nag hmo cov lus hais tau siab ntawm cov xov xwm cuam tshuam, thiab teeb pom kev nthuav dav, tab sis nws tsis muaj teeb meem," Jeffrey Halley, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Asia Pacific ntawm tus broker Oanda, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom hnub Thursday.
Txawm li cas los xij, Andrew Batson, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm pab pawg tshawb fawb Suav Gavekal Dragonomics, tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Thursday tias "qhov tsis sib xws yog ... tias qhov no yog qhov kev hloov pauv hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, tsis yog lub tswv yim ntev."
"Cov qauv kev nom kev tswv tseem ceeb uas thaum kawg ua lub luag haujlwm rau kev lag luam kev ntseeg siab tsis ntev los no tsis tau hloov pauv."
Lub lim tiam no lub rooj sib tham yog qhov zoo siab txais tos rov hais dua rau cov khoom lag luam raug ntaus. Tab sis qhov tseeb tias nws tseem ua tau rau lub tuam txhab zoo li Alibaba - uas muaj kev lag luam peev hauv ntau pua lab nyiaj daus las - kom nce mus txog 30% hauv ib hnub yog qhov teeb meem loj heev rau cov tub ua lag luam tsom rau cov hauv paus ntsiab lus.
"Qhov tseeb tias cov nqi sib koom ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws tau hloov pauv los ntawm ob tus lej feem pua hauv ib qho kev lag luam ib zaug, raws li kev xav ntawm nom tswv thiab cov cim qhia, tsuas yog txhawb nqa lawv cov txiaj ntsig ntau npaum li cas tam sim no nyob ntawm tsoomfwv cov kev taw qhia," Batson hais.
Sau rau Jack Denton ntawm [email tiv thaiv]