Yog tias Tebchaws Meskas lub sijhawm kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab xyoo no zoo ib yam li yav dhau los, lub khw lag luam yuav nthuav tawm txoj cai qis qis nyob ib puag ncig Hnub Xaiv Tsa lub Kaum Ib Hlis.
Qhov ntawd yuav tsum tau muab qee qhov kev cia siab rau cov neeg ua lag luam uas nws cov khoom lag luam tau raug kev poob ob tus lej kom txog rau thaum lub xyoo no. Qhov kev tawm tsam muaj txiaj ntsig tuaj yeem tsuas yog ob peb lub lis piam tam sim ntawd.
Kuv tab tom xa mus rau cov qauv keeb kwm hauv kev ua lag luam ntawm kev lag luam ua ntej nruab nrab tsis muaj zog thiab tom qab nruab nrab lub zog. Cov qauv no yog npaj rau hauv daim duab hauv qab no, uas yog raws li qhov nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli-Lub Kaum Ob Hlis kev ua haujlwm ntawm Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+ 1.19%
nyob rau hauv lub xeem 17 xyoo kev xaiv tsa midterm (txij li xyoo 1954).
Txawm hais tias hnub ntawm qhov nruab nrab hauv daim ntawv qhia no yog nyob rau lub Kaum Hli, qhov tseeb qis hauv cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm tuaj yeem tuaj ntxov lossis tom qab. Ntau yam nyob ntawm thaum lub lag luam Tshuag pib xav txog qhov tshwm sim ntawm lub midterms thiab yog li ntawd txo nws. Qhov kev kwv yees zoo yog tias qhov qis xyoo no yuav yog tom qab, muab qhov tsis paub meej txog qhov txiaj ntsig kev xaiv tsa - tshwj xeeb hauv US Senate.
Nws yog ib txwm ua tau tias qhov ua ntej nruab nrab qis yuav tshwm sim ua ntej Hnub Xaiv Tsa. Nws yuav tsis yog qhov tsis sib haum nrog cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm rau lub xyoo no qis kom tau tshwm sim hnub tom qab Hnub Ua Haujlwm, qhov tseeb. Raws li lub Cuaj Hlis 9, S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.53%
yog ntau tshaj 4% siab tshaj qhov qis.
Nws yog tsim nyog sau cia tias nws yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws rau txhua tus qauv tshwm sim thaum nruab nrab ua ke ntau xyoo tsim nyog ntawm kev lag luam gyrations. Txawm hais tias txhua xyoo rub tawm ib txoj hauv kev tshwj xeeb, qhov siab thiab qhov qis feem ntau thim tawm ib leeg, tawm hauv qhov nruab nrab los ua txoj kab nce siab. Ib qho qauv yuav tsum tau hais meej nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm rau qhov sib txawv kom tshwm sim uas yog stark li ib qho hauv daim ntawv nrog.
Cov qauv ua ntej thiab tom qab nruab nrab no tau tshaj tawm tias nws yog lub hauv paus ntawm cov qauv nto moo raws caij nyoog hu ua "Halloween Indicator," raws li cov khoom lag luam muaj zog tshaj plaws thaum Lub Kaum Hli 31 thiab Tsib Hlis 1 thiab tsis muaj zog rau lwm lub hlis. ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, tshem tawm rau lub hlis ua ntej- thiab tom qab kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm thiab Halloween Indicator ploj mus.
Cov ntaub ntawv hauv qab no tshwm sim hauv cov lus hauv qab no. Lub xov tooj ntawm tes cim nrog ib lub hnub qub (*) yog hais txog lub sijhawm rau lub hlis tam sim no, thaum lub xov tooj ntawm tes cim nrog ob lub hnub qub (**) sib raug rau lub sijhawm rau lub hlis uas pib thaum lub Kaum Hlis 2022.
| Xyoo ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm lub voj voog txij li xyoo 1954 | Qhov nruab nrab Dow nce los ntawm Halloween rau Tsib Hlis 1 | Qhov nruab nrab Dow nce txij lub Tsib Hlis 1 txog rau Halloween |
| 1 | 6.4% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 4.7% | -0.2% * |
| 3 | 15.1% ** | 1.1% |
| 4 | 4.3% | 0.5% |
Yog li yog tias koj raug ntxias los twv ntawm Halloween Indicator, koj lub sijhawm tau nrawm nrawm. Yog tias koj plam nws, koj yuav tsis muaj sijhawm ntxiv mus txog rau xyoo 2026 midterms.
Cov credit rau kev tshawb pom tias Halloween Indicator taug qab mus rau lub hlis ua ntej thiab tom qab lub sijhawm nruab nrab mus rau Terry Marsh, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of California, Berkeley, thiab CEO ntawm Quantal International, thiab Kam Fong Chan, tus kws qhia ntawv laus hauv nyiaj txiag ntawm University of Queensland hauv Australia. Lawv cov kev tshawb fawb rau hauv tus qauv no tau tshwm sim thaum Lub Xya Hli 2021 hauv Phau Ntawv Xov Xwm ntawm Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag.
Qhov zoo ntawm qhov qauv, raws li cov kws tshawb fawb, yog qhov tsis paub tseeb uas tshwm sim ua ntej lub sijhawm nruab nrab thiab kev daws teeb meem ntawm qhov tsis meej tom qab kev xaiv tsa. Lawv sau tseg tias nws zoo li tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi yog tog twg los tswj hwm Congress ua ntej lub sijhawm nruab nrab thiab qhov twg dhau los ua pawg feem ntau tom qab. Cov qauv tshwm sim, lawv ntseeg, vim tias cov khw lag luam xav tau qhov tseeb, txawm tias qhov chaw ntawm qhov tseeb yuav tsis ua raws li txhua tus neeg ua lag luam nyiam kev nom kev tswv.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
ntxiv: Cov tub ua lag luam loj tau nyiam cov khoom lag luam loj rau qhov seem ntawm 2022 - tej zaum koj yuav tsum thiab
Kev sib tw ua lag luam muaj zog tuaj yeem tsuas yog ob peb lub lis piam yog tias Asmeskas kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab rau cov tub ua lag luam hauv kev yooj yim
Yog tias Tebchaws Meskas lub sijhawm kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab xyoo no zoo ib yam li yav dhau los, lub khw lag luam yuav nthuav tawm txoj cai qis qis nyob ib puag ncig Hnub Xaiv Tsa lub Kaum Ib Hlis.
Qhov ntawd yuav tsum tau muab qee qhov kev cia siab rau cov neeg ua lag luam uas nws cov khoom lag luam tau raug kev poob ob tus lej kom txog rau thaum lub xyoo no. Qhov kev tawm tsam muaj txiaj ntsig tuaj yeem tsuas yog ob peb lub lis piam tam sim ntawd.
Kuv tab tom xa mus rau cov qauv keeb kwm hauv kev ua lag luam ntawm kev lag luam ua ntej nruab nrab tsis muaj zog thiab tom qab nruab nrab lub zog. Cov qauv no yog npaj rau hauv daim duab hauv qab no, uas yog raws li qhov nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli-Lub Kaum Ob Hlis kev ua haujlwm ntawm Dow Jones Industrial Average
+ 1.19%
DJIA,
nyob rau hauv lub xeem 17 xyoo kev xaiv tsa midterm (txij li xyoo 1954).
Txawm hais tias hnub ntawm qhov nruab nrab hauv daim ntawv qhia no yog nyob rau lub Kaum Hli, qhov tseeb qis hauv cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm tuaj yeem tuaj ntxov lossis tom qab. Ntau yam nyob ntawm thaum lub lag luam Tshuag pib xav txog qhov tshwm sim ntawm lub midterms thiab yog li ntawd txo nws. Qhov kev kwv yees zoo yog tias qhov qis xyoo no yuav yog tom qab, muab qhov tsis paub meej txog qhov txiaj ntsig kev xaiv tsa - tshwj xeeb hauv US Senate.
Nws yog ib txwm ua tau tias qhov ua ntej nruab nrab qis yuav tshwm sim ua ntej Hnub Xaiv Tsa. Nws yuav tsis yog qhov tsis sib haum nrog cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm rau lub xyoo no qis kom tau tshwm sim hnub tom qab Hnub Ua Haujlwm, qhov tseeb. Raws li lub Cuaj Hlis 9, S&P 500
+ 1.53%
SPX,
yog ntau tshaj 4% siab tshaj qhov qis.
Nws yog tsim nyog sau cia tias nws yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws rau txhua tus qauv tshwm sim thaum nruab nrab ua ke ntau xyoo tsim nyog ntawm kev lag luam gyrations. Txawm hais tias txhua xyoo rub tawm ib txoj hauv kev tshwj xeeb, qhov siab thiab qhov qis feem ntau thim tawm ib leeg, tawm hauv qhov nruab nrab los ua txoj kab nce siab. Ib qho qauv yuav tsum tau hais meej nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm rau qhov sib txawv kom tshwm sim uas yog stark li ib qho hauv daim ntawv nrog.
Cov qauv ua ntej thiab tom qab nruab nrab no tau tshaj tawm tias nws yog lub hauv paus ntawm cov qauv nto moo raws caij nyoog hu ua "Halloween Indicator," raws li cov khoom lag luam muaj zog tshaj plaws thaum Lub Kaum Hli 31 thiab Tsib Hlis 1 thiab tsis muaj zog rau lwm lub hlis. ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, tshem tawm rau lub hlis ua ntej- thiab tom qab kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm thiab Halloween Indicator ploj mus.
Cov ntaub ntawv hauv qab no tshwm sim hauv cov lus hauv qab no. Lub xov tooj ntawm tes cim nrog ib lub hnub qub (*) yog hais txog lub sijhawm rau lub hlis tam sim no, thaum lub xov tooj ntawm tes cim nrog ob lub hnub qub (**) sib raug rau lub sijhawm rau lub hlis uas pib thaum lub Kaum Hlis 2022.
Yog li yog tias koj raug ntxias los twv ntawm Halloween Indicator, koj lub sijhawm tau nrawm nrawm. Yog tias koj plam nws, koj yuav tsis muaj sijhawm ntxiv mus txog rau xyoo 2026 midterms.
Cov credit rau kev tshawb pom tias Halloween Indicator taug qab mus rau lub hlis ua ntej thiab tom qab lub sijhawm nruab nrab mus rau Terry Marsh, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of California, Berkeley, thiab CEO ntawm Quantal International, thiab Kam Fong Chan, tus kws qhia ntawv laus hauv nyiaj txiag ntawm University of Queensland hauv Australia. Lawv cov kev tshawb fawb rau hauv tus qauv no tau tshwm sim thaum Lub Xya Hli 2021 hauv Phau Ntawv Xov Xwm ntawm Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag.
Qhov zoo ntawm qhov qauv, raws li cov kws tshawb fawb, yog qhov tsis paub tseeb uas tshwm sim ua ntej lub sijhawm nruab nrab thiab kev daws teeb meem ntawm qhov tsis meej tom qab kev xaiv tsa. Lawv sau tseg tias nws zoo li tsis muaj teeb meem dab tsi yog tog twg los tswj hwm Congress ua ntej lub sijhawm nruab nrab thiab qhov twg dhau los ua pawg feem ntau tom qab. Cov qauv tshwm sim, lawv ntseeg, vim tias cov khw lag luam xav tau qhov tseeb, txawm tias qhov chaw ntawm qhov tseeb yuav tsis ua raws li txhua tus neeg ua lag luam nyiam kev nom kev tswv.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
ntxiv: Cov tub ua lag luam loj tau nyiam cov khoom lag luam loj rau qhov seem ntawm 2022 - tej zaum koj yuav tsum thiab
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-strong-market-rally-could-be-just-weeks-away-if-the-us-midterm-elections-can-put-anxious-stock- investor-at-ease-11662764493?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo