Ib qho khoom lag luam ntsuas ntsuas nrog ib qho ntawm cov ntaub ntawv zoo tshaj plaws yog cov neeg ua lag luam zoo siab

Qhov nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg cov ntaub ntawv faib nyiaj rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yog qhov qhia tsis sib xws, nrog kev faib nyiaj ntau dua muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog cov khoom lag luam qis dua thiab rov ua dua.

Raws li kev ntsuam xyuas econometric uas kuv tau txais qhov no thiab lwm qhov ntsuas ntsuas, nws muaj ib qho zoo tshaj plaws, yog tias tsis yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws, taug qab cov ntaub ntawv thaum kwv yees lub khw lag luam tag nrho cov nqi rov qab los ntawm kaum xyoo tom ntej.

Muaj lwm cov cim qhia tsis sib xws nrog tib lub upshot. Institutional investor nyob rau hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los muaj nchuav nyiaj ntau ntau rau hauv US cov peev nyiaj ncaj ncees tshaj cov khw muag khoom lag luam tau coj tawm. Thiab nws yog tsawg kawg uas lub khw lag luam poob rau ob xyoos sib law liag, tawm tswv yim 2023 tuaj yeem yog xyoo tseem ceeb rau S&P 500 Index
SPX,
+ 0.59%
tom qab xyoo no lub lag luam dais.

Qhov kev faib nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg no tau ua rau nws siab txhua lub sijhawm, thiab yog li ntawd nws txoj kev poob qis tshaj plaws, ntawm 51.73% hauv lub Peb Hlis 2000, lub hli saum toj kawg nkaus hauv internet npuas. Peb sawv daws nco ntsoov tias muaj dab tsi tshwm sim tom ntej.

Qhov ntsuas ntawd yuav luag siab li ib xyoos dhau los, thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2021, ntawm 51.66%. Txij li hnub nyeem ntawv, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
TSI,
+ 0.55%
- uas nws 4,026 cov khoom lag luam sawv cev rau Asmeskas kev lag luam tag nrho - tau poob 19.9% ​​ntawm nws tus nqi.

Qhov ntsuas tau hloov kho txhua lub hlis twg, thiab txawm tias tom qab ntawd nrog ob peb lub lis piam lag. Ob lub lis piam dhau los Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau tso tawm cov ntaub ntawv peb lub hlis twg uas yog cov khoom siv rau qhov taw qhia, thiab nws cov nqi kawg yog 43.62%. Txawm hais tias qhov kev nyeem ntawv tsis ntev los no tseem yog siab dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm, nws tsis cuam tshuam qhov tsis zoo tag nrho rov qab los rau S&P 500 nyob rau kaum xyoo tom ntej. Nws hloov pauv cov phiaj xwm hais tias kev lag luam Tshuag yuav yeej kev nce nqi los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 0.6% ib xyoos.

Beating inflation los ntawm tsawg tshaj li qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus yuav tsis cuam tshuam koj li dab tsi los sau hauv tsev. Tab sis qhov no yog thawj zaug txij li thaum pib muaj kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw uas qhov ntsuas tau ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo.

Tsis tas li ntawd, kuv yuav tsis xav tsis thoob yog tias lub khw muag khoom lag luam nyob rau kaum xyoo tom ntej no ntaus qhov kev npaj rov qab. Qhov ntawd yog vim qhov xwm txheej tshwj xeeb uas ua rau qhov ntsuas tau poob ntau dhau xyoo dhau los. Thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam dais ib txwm, qhov nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg qhov kev faib nyiaj rau cov khoom lag luam yuav poob qis dua los yog tsawg dua vim tias cov khoom lag luam poob hauv av thiab daim ntawv cog lus nce nqi. Thaum qhov ntawd tshwm sim, cov tub ua lag luam tsis tas yuav muag ib qho ntawm lawv cov khoom lag luam rau qhov kev faib nruab nrab no kom poob.

Hauv kev lag luam dais tam sim no, qhov sib piv, cov ntawv cog lus tau ua tsis zoo ib yam li cov khoom lag luam, yog tias tsis zoo dua. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, qhov poob ntawm qhov nruab nrab tsev neeg qhov kev faib nyiaj vaj huam sib luag xyoo dhau los no tau tshwm sim los ntawm kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, cov kev muag khoom muaj ntau qhov tseem ceeb tshaj qhov poob ntawm kev faib nyiaj ncaj ncees uas tshwm sim thaum cov khoom lag luam poob thiab cov ntawv cog lus nce.

Yuav ua li cas yim tus qauv ntsuas kev sib tw

Cov lus, hauv qab no, teev yim qhov ntsuas ntsuas qhov ntsuas kuv tseem ceeb hauv qhov chaw no txhua lub hlis. Kuv tsis paub txog lwm tus uas muaj cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm zoo tshaj plaws. Raws li qhov xwm txheej nrog qhov nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg qhov kev faib nyiaj ncaj ncees, ntau ntawm lwm qhov ntsuas hauv lub rooj kuj tau thim rov qab los ntawm kev ntsuas qhov siab tshaj plaws thaum kawg ntawm 2021.

	Tseeb	Lub hli dhau los	Pib xyoo	Percentile txij thaum 2000 (100 feem ntau bearish)	Percentile txij thaum 1970 (100 feem ntau bearish)	Percentile txij thaum 1950 (100 feem ntau bearish)
P / E Piv	20.43	21.81	24.23	40%	62%	71%
CAPE ratio	27.97	29.86	38.66	69%	79%	85%
P/dividend ratio	1.74%	1.68%	1.30%	73%	82%	87%
P/muag ratio	2.30	2.45	3.15	89%	89%	89%
P/phau ntawv piv txwv	3.82	4.07	4.85	90%	86%	86%
Q ratio	1.63	1.73	2.10	80%	89%	92%
Buffett ratio (PIB/PIB)	1.51	1.61	2.03	88%	95%	95%
Kev faib nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm tsev neeg	43.6%	43.6%	51.7%	75%	84%	88%

Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].