European Central Bank (ECB) yuav tshaj tawm nws txoj kev txiav txim siab nyiaj txiag rau hnub Thursday. Nws yog thawj zaug ECB ntsib hauv 2023, thiab kev ua lag luam cia siab tias yuav nce 50bp tus nqi nce.
Nws yuav coj tus nqi rov qab tseem ceeb rau 3% ntawm tam sim no 2.5%, thiab ECB's hawkishness yog ib qho laj thawj vim li cas EUR / USD Tus nqi pauv hloov pauv los ntawm 2022 qis qis kawg Lub Kaum Hli. Tus khub txiaj tau nce ntau dua 1,000 pips ntawm kev sib xyaw ntawm ECB hawkishness thiab Fed ua rau qeeb qeeb ntawm cov paj laum nce siab.
Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?
Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.
ECB puas tuaj yeem ua lag luam surprise? Nws muaj peev xwm.
Cas hawkish
ECB tab tom tawm tsam kev nce nqi siab thiab xav kom cov lag luam ntseeg tias nws yuav ua dab tsi los coj tus nqi rov qab. Kev nce nqi tau tshwm sim tau qeeb hauv Tebchaws Europe, tab sis tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub lim tiam no los ntawm Spain qhia tau tias kev nce nqi nce los ntawm 5.8% YoY thaum lub lag luam xav tau 4.9% YoY.
Yog li ntawd, ECB yuav xav ua kom lub lag luam nkag siab tias nws nyob deb ntawm qhov kev nce qib.
Kev ua lag luam tau raug nqi nyob rau hauv 50bp tus nqi nce, tab sis qhov nuances tseem ceeb tshaj qhov kev mus ncig tiag tiag. Ib qho txiaj ntsig hawkish yuav yog tias 50bp tus nqi nce mus yuav tau nrog los ntawm kev cog lus rau lwm tus 50bp tus nqi nce hauv lub Peb Hlis.
Tsis tas li ntawd, yog tias ECB tshaj tawm tias nws npaj yuav tsum tso tseg PEPP kev nqis peev rov qab rau xyoo 2023, qhov ntawd yuav sawv cev rau lwm txoj kev loj hlob.
Dovish cas
Ntawm dovish sab, ECB tseem tuaj yeem nce mus txog 50bp thiab nyob twj ywm dovish. Nws tuaj yeem siv qhov kev xav tsis zoo ntawm kev lag luam los ua kev zam txim rau kev qhia txog qhov qeeb qeeb qeeb.
Tsis tas li ntawd, yog tias nws hais tias qhov kev txo qis APP tuaj yeem nres yog tias tsim nyog, ces cov txiaj ntsig zoo yuav raug mob.
Nyob rau hauv tag nrho, nws yog ib lub lim tiam loj rau cov euro. EUR / USD tam sim no sib sau ua ke saum toj 1.08, thiab cov neeg yuav khoom zoo li yuav tshwm sim ntawm kev txav mus rau thaj tsam 1.07-1.06.
Tau qhov twg los: https://invezz.com/news/2023/01/31/a-preview-of-the-ecb-monetary-policy-decision-what-to-expect/