Ib tus neeg sab hauv tseem ceeb tsuas yog yuav $ 150,397 ntawm qhov nyiaj tau nce siab no

Peb contrarian cov nyiaj faib cov neeg yuav khoom nyiam nws thaum tus neeg sab hauv thauj khoom ntawm lawv tus kheej (zoo tshaj plaws ntxuav tawm!) Tshuag. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum cov Tshuag yog:

1. Tso tawm nws cov txiaj ntsig siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo.
2. Loj hlob nws cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm ntawm 9% txhua xyoo tus nqi, thiab…
3. Tied rau ib qho ntawm cov loj tshaj megatrends muaj: peb never-ending tiv thaiv cov ntaub ntawv mobile.

Peb tab tom pom tag nrho peb qhov saum toj no nrog cell-ntauwd REIT Crown Castle International (CCI), uas tau poob qis qee qhov 37% hauv qhov kev muag khoom no. Qhov ntawd tau tsav nws cov txiaj ntsig mus txog 4.4% - tsuas yog ib qho ntxoov ntxoo hauv qab txhua lub sijhawm siab!

Tus neeg sab hauv? Ib tug Matthew Thornton III, ib tug tswv cuab ntawm Crown Castle pawg thawj coj uas muaj ntau ntawm daim tawv nqaij hauv qhov kev ua si. Tsuas yog lub lim tiam dhau los, Matthew poob $ 150,397 ntawm nws tus kheej cov nyiaj ntsuab rau hauv Tshuag. Nyob rau hauv tag nrho, nws tau zaum ntawm ib co 5,271 shares, zoo rau txog $730K ntawm cov nqi hnub no.

(Ua tsaug ntau rau peb tus phooj ywg JC Parets ntawm All-Star Charts rau tipping peb rau qhov no!)

Cov neeg sab hauv yuav zoo li cov no yog cov cim qhia tsis zoo vim tsis zoo li cov kws tshaj lij (thiab feem ntau tsis yog!) pontificators hauv xov xwm, cov neeg sab hauv paub dab tsi ua rau lawv cov tuam txhab zuam - thiab lawv kuj paub yog tias ib yam dab tsi los ntawm pike uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam tus nqi sib koom.

Qhov ntawd ua rau kev yuav khoom nrog cov neeg no qhov zoo tshaj plaws txoj hauv kev yuav tsum tau ua ntej-khiav ib qho kev nce hauv cov khoom lag luam-thiab nws zoo kawg nkaus raws cai!

Koj tsis paub xyov puas paub tus naas ej Peter Lynch nqe lus ntawm kev yuav khoom sab hauv: "Cov neeg sab hauv tuaj yeem muag lawv cov khoom vim li cas, tab sis lawv tsuas yog yuav ib qho: lawv xav tias tus nqi yuav nce. " Kuv yuav luag pom koj nodding nrog tus ntawd. Zoo, nws yog tiag tiag. Thiab muaj ntau ntau ntawm cov laj thawj xav txog yuav Crown Castle hnub no.

Ib qho "Kub-Fashioned" Tech Oligopoly

Crown Castle yog ib qho ntawm Big 3 US cell-tower tswv-American Ntauwd (AMT) thiab SBA Kev Sib Txuas Lus (SBAC) yog lwm tus ob.

Lub tuam txhab muaj 40,000 xov tooj ntawm tes, 85,000 mais ntawm fiber-optic cable hauv Asmeskas thiab 115,000 "cov hlwb me." Cov tshuab xa xov me me no yog thaj chaw loj hlob loj, vim lawv pab Crown Castle tswj kev nce qib ntawm cov ntaub ntawv xov tooj ntawm tes hauv nroog hauv nroog yam tsis tsim cov yees tshiab.

Qhov kawg tshwm sim yog qhov nyiaj rov qab ntau dua ntawm kev nqis peev ntawm cov hlwb me dua li Crown Castle tuaj yeem nyem tawm ntawm nws cov pej thuam loj.

Xyoo no ib leeg, lub tuam txhab npaj yuav xa qee 10,000 lub hlwb me me, thiab kev nthuav dav ntxiv ntawm 5G yuav pab txhawb qhov kev loj hlob ntawd.

Cia peb nres thiab tham txog 5G ib feeb, vim hais tias ntawm lub sijhawm no koj yuav nkees hnov ​​​​txog nws. Thiab nws is Qhov tseeb tias Asmeskas cov neeg nqa khoom tau zoo rau hauv lawv cov kev tsim kho, uas ua rau cov nqi qis dua. Verizon, piv txwv li, tau siv nyiaj txog $ 15.8 nphom ntawm capex xyoo no, yuav luag tag nrho ntawm $ 16.5 nphom txog $ 17.5 nphom nws npaj yuav siv hauv tag nrho cov ntawm 2023.

Qhov ntawd zoo li qhov tsis zoo rau Crown Castle, tab sis qhov uas txhua tus neeg tsis nco qab yog qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 5G yog xa nqi rau hauv cov khoom lag luam: Raws li kuv tau hais tias lub tuam txhab tau tso 39% ntawm nws cov nqi xyoo no, ntau dua li kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse (REITs) tag nrho, tech stocks thiab S&P 500.

Qhov ntawd yog txoj kev dhau mus rau ib lub tuam txhab uas txhawb cov nyiaj tau los ntawm qhov chaw xauj tsev los ntawm qee qhov 8% lub quarter dhau los thiab poob 6.5% cov nyiaj faib tawm rau cov tswv cuab ua ntej xyoo no. Qhov ntawd yog me ntsis qis dua li nws tau nyob rau xyoo tas los no, tab sis CCI tseem tab tom ncaws tawm 9% kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm kev them nyiaj hauv xya xyoo xaus rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2023:

Nco ntsoov, ib yam nkaus, uas koj yuav tau yuav ntawm 4.4% tawm los, ntau tshaj li cov tub ua lag luam uas tau yuav ob peb lub hlis dhau los tau txais. Qhov "thawj pib" ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv loj rau cov txiaj ntsig uas koj tau sau rau ntawm koj qhov kev yuav khoom qub thaum koj cov nyiaj them poob qis hauv lub sijhawm ntev.

Lwm qhov laj thawj vim li cas qhov kev muag khoom hauv Crown Castle yog dhau los yog vim tias, nrog rau tag nrho cov npe tech (ish) cov neeg muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog cov txiaj ntsig kev nce nqi yuav muaj rau lub tuam txhab qiv nyiaj.

Qhov kev ntshai no yog tag nrho misplaced, rau ob peb yog vim li cas.

Ua ntej, peb zoo li yuav nyob ze rau qhov kawg ntawm lub voj voog-hike. Qhov teeb meem tshiab tshaj plaws los ntawm, ntawm txhua qhov chaw, Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag ntawm Canada: peb cov neeg nyob ze (u) lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau tshaj tawm 50-qhov tseem ceeb-taw tes mus ncig lub lim tiam dhau los, qis dua qhov nws xav tau 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus. Ntau tus kws tshawb fawb kev lag luam cia siab tias nws lub voj voog nce qib nce mus rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.

Canada kev lag luam muaj ntau yam sib xws nrog peb, yog li koj tuaj yeem twv tau Jay Powell tau sau tseg. Thiab yog tias peb tau txais kev poob nyiaj xyoo tom ntej, tus nqi txiav yuav muaj nyob rau hauv daim npav (raws li lawv tau ua rau txhua qhov kev poob nyiaj txiag hauv keeb kwm ntawm Fed). Qhov ntawd, nyob rau hauv lem, yuav txo qis Crown Castle cov nqi qiv nyiaj thaum nws qhov kev lag luam kev lag luam loj hlob tuaj ua ntej.

Nyob rau hauv lwm yam lus, lub ncov ntawm tus nqi-hike mus ncig teb chaws thiab ua ntej ntawm ib tug muaj peev xwm kev txom nyem yog zoo li ib tug zoo yuav qhov rais ntawm lub Tshuag - thiab koj muaj peev xwm bet peb tus txiv neej Matthew paub nws.

Ib qho ntxiv ntawm cov nuj nqis pem hauv ntej: Crown Castle cov nuj nqis mus sij hawm ntev ntawm $ 21.5 billion yog 39% ntawm nws lub khw muag khoom, lossis nws cov nqi raws li lub tuam txhab pej xeem, uas yog heev tsim nyog rau REIT nrog nce nqi xauj tsev tsis tu ncua zoo li Crown Castle. (Thiab nco ntsoov, qhov piv txwv qis no yog tom qab 37% drubbing lub tuam txhab tus nqi lag luam coj xyoo no.)

Ntxiv rau, 84% ntawm Crown Castle cov nuj nqis tau teeb tsa ntawm tus nqi ruaj khov, thiab nws qhov hnyav nruab nrab daim coupon tsuas yog 3.2%, cia los ntawm 3.8% xya xyoo dhau los. Thiab me ntsis ntawm nws yog maturing nyob rau hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no:

Matthew Paub Thaum Crown Castle pheej yig (thiab peb ua li cas)

Thaum kawg, lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj faib nyiaj rau 82% ntawm FFO, uas yog tswj tau rau REIT nrog nyiaj ntsuab txaus. Thiab yog tias koj tsis ntseeg Crown Castle 39% lub caij nplooj zeeg ua rau nws muaj kev sib tham, xav txog tias nws ua lag luam ntawm tsuas yog 16.7-lub sijhawm kwv yees 2023 FFO, lwm qhov tseeb uas Matthew yuav paub zoo.

Cov kab hauv qab no yog tias cov neeg cog qoob loo megatrend zoo li no tsis mus muag ntau zaus. Thiab thaum peb muaj cov neeg sab hauv tseem ceeb ua kev yuav khoom loj, nws tsim nyog ua tib zoo mloog.

Brett Owens yog tus thawj coj ua nqes peev rau Contrarian OutlookCov. Yog xav paub cov nyiaj tau los zoo dua, tau txais koj daim ntawv theej dawb tshaj daim ntawv ceeb toom tshwj xeeb tshaj plaws: Koj Cov Nyiaj Txiaj Ntsig Thaum Ntxov: Cov Nyiaj Them Loj Loj—Txhua Lub Hlis—Txiv Mus Ib Txhis.

Kev tshaj tawm: tsis muaj