Ib lub tsev 'crash?' Tus nqi qis txhais li cas rau cov tswv tsev thiab cov neeg yuav khoom cia siab.

Txawm hais tias nws tsis txaus siab rau cov neeg yuav khoom, peb tsis zoo li yuav muaj kev sib tsoo zoo li lub tebchaws tau ntsib xyoo 2008 txog 2014, thaum cov nqi tsev poob los ntawm ob tus lej feem pua ​​​​ntawm lawv cov 2007 ncov.

Cov nqi "tej zaum yuav poob qis me ntsis, tab sis kev sib tsoo kuv xav tias yog ntau dua 10% poob ntawm cov nqi hauv tsev, thiab qhov ntawd zoo li tam sim no tau txais txiaj ntsig," Daryl Fairweather, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm tuam txhab lag luam hauv Redfin hais.
RDFN,
+ 0.17%.

Qee cov kws tshaj lij xav tias cov nqi tsev yuav poob qis hauv lub tebchaws los ntawm ob peb feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus nyob rau xyoo tom ntej lossis ob xyoos thiab yuav poob qis hauv ob peb thaj chaw metro. Tab sis qhov kev pom zoo me me muaj nyob ntawm cov nroog twg yuav muaj qhov poob qis tshaj plaws.

Txawm hais tias koj ntev mus yuav koj thawj lub tsev lossis koj muaj ib qho thiab tau txiav txim siab muag, ntawm no yog qhov poob nqi tuaj yeem txhais tau rau koj.

Yog tias tus nqi poob qis, cov neeg yuav khoom yuav nres

Cia peb hais tias koj xav yuav ib lub tsev thiab cov nqi poob qis hauv koj lub nroog. Koj yuav raug ntxias kom tos. Tom qab tag nrho, vim li cas thiaj yuav tsev niaj hnub no yog tias koj ntseeg tias koj tuaj yeem them tsawg dua rau lub tsev zoo li ob peb lub hlis?

Qhov teeb meem nrog lub logic ironclad no yog tias koj tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees thaum tus nqi yuav tsoo hauv qab. Tos ntev heev, thiab koj yuav xaus rau kev sim yuav thaum tus nqi nce thiab kev sib tw nce. Lub tswv yim no, hu ua lub sijhawm ua lag luam, yog qhov tsis pom zoo, hais tias Odeta Kushi, tus thawj coj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag ntawm First American Financial Corp.

"Yog tias koj tuaj yeem nrhiav tau lub tsev uas ua tau raws li koj qhov kev xav tau nyiaj txiag rau kev them nyiaj txhua hli thiab nws yog lub sijhawm zoo rau koj yuav, ua li ntawd," nws hais.

Thiab yog tias koj tos kom tus nqi poob tab sis lawv tsis ua, koj yuav pom txoj hauv kev nyuaj uas "lub tsev uas koj pom ib xyoos dhau los uas koj hlub tiag tiag, uas koj muaj peev xwm them taus tab sis koj dhau mus, yuav kim dua xyoo tom ntej, "Kushi hais.

Tib neeg qhov nws yog dab tsi, koj yuav zaum sim lub sijhawm ua lag luam lawm. Tab sis, hav, koj tau ceeb toom.

Xav paub ntau ntxiv: Vim li cas vaj tsev muaj 'ntau chav wiggle' hauv kev lag luam, txawm tias tus nqi poob 15%

Cov neeg muag khoom 'qualms teem ib pem teb raws li tus nqi

Kev tos cov nqi tsev poob qis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam los ntawm cov tswv tsev tsis txaus siab tso tseg qhov lawv tau txais - thiab thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb, cov tswv tsev tau txais ob peb yam uas lawv xav khaws cia.

Qhov thib ib yog inflated home values. Kushi hu cov nqi hauv tsev "downward sticky," txhais tau hais tias cov neeg muag khoom tsis kam lees txais kev txo qis tshwj tsis yog lawv xav muag. "Yog tias koj tsis tas yuav muag, koj tsuas yog zaum nruj, txoj cai?" nws hais.

Lwm yam uas cov tswv tsev cling rau: cov nqi tsev qis. Los ntawm kev them nyiaj rov qab lossis kev yuav khoom raws sijhawm, 92% ntawm cov tswv tsev nrog cov tsev qiv nyiaj muaj nqis qis dua 5%, thiab ib nrab muaj cov nqi qis dua 3.5%, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam vaj tsev nyob Ivy Zelman tau hais hauv kev sib tham Macro Hive podcast thaum Lub Xya Hli.

Ntau tus tswv tsev yuav snuggle lawv qis nqi tsev qiv thiab cog lus tias yuav tsis tawm mus.

"Yog tias koj yog tus tswv tsev niaj hnub no uas raug kaw rau hauv 2.6% lossis 2.7% tus nqi tsev, qhov twg yog koj qhov kev txhawb siab muag koj lub tsev thiab yuav ib lub tsev ntawm tus nqi tsev ntau dua hnub no?"Thawj Asmeskas tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag, Mark Fleming, tau hais hauv REconomy podcast. “Tsis ntau. Koj yog tus nqi xauv hauv. "

Muaj twb muaj cov cim qhia ntawm "cov neeg muag khoom tawm tsam," raws li kev lag luam blogger Bill McBride hu qhov tshwm sim no hauv nws tsab ntawv xov xwm Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb. Hauv kev tshawb fawb ntawm 25 lub tsev lag luam, McBride tau sau tseg tias 10.6% poob qis hauv cov npe tshiab nyob rau lub Yim Hli piv rau xyoo dhau los.

Cov tswv tsev 'obstinacy cuam tshuam - yuav yog cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev hauv txoj hauv kev: Thaum cov tswv tsev khaws lawv lub tsev tawm ntawm kev ua lag luam, lawv txo tus naj npawb uas muaj los yuav. Ib qho khoom siv tsawg tuaj yeem txwv tus nqi poob qis vim cov neeg yuav khoom sib tw rau cov khoom meager.

Nyeem: Cov kws lag luam feem ntau pom tias Asmeskas hloov mus rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv 2023. Ntawm no yog qhov koj yuav pom qhov poob qis tshaj plaws ntawm tus nqi.

Thaum koj tshuav ntau tshaj lub tsev muaj nqis

Ze li ntawm 10 lab lub tsev uas twb muaj lawm tau muag txij thaum pib ntawm 2021 nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Kev poob qis hauv tsev yuav txhais tau tias cov neeg yuav khoom tsis ntev los no - cov uas tau them me me thiab pib tsis muaj kev ncaj ncees ntau - tuaj yeem xaus rau tshuav ntau dua li lawv lub tsev tsim nyog. Nws yog lub npe hu ua upside-down. Yog tias koj xaus rau qhov teeb meem no, koj muaj ob peb txoj kev xaiv.

• Khaws lub tsev, them tag nrho cov nqi tsev, thiab tos kom cov nqi tsev rov qab los. Qhov no yuav yog qhov kev xaiv nrov tshaj plaws, txawm tias cov tsev neeg uas loj hlob lawv lub tsev.

• Yog tias koj muag lub tsev thaum rov qab los, koj yuav tsum tau coj mus rhaub cov nyiaj khaws cia kom them tag nrho cov nyiaj qiv nrog rau cov nqi vaj tsev thiab lwm yam nqi.

• Yuav ua li cas yog tias koj tsis muaj nyiaj txaus los them rov qab cov nqi tsev? Koj tuaj yeem nrhiav tus qiv nyiaj tso cai muag lub tsev hauv kev muag luv luv. Tus neeg qiv nyiaj yuav tsis kam tso cai, txawm li cas los xij, yog tias koj tuaj yeem them taus cov nyiaj them tsev txhua hli. Qhov ntawd yuav kaw koj rau hauv Kev Xaiv 1, khaws lub tsev thiab tos kom txog thaum nws muaj nqis tshaj qhov koj tshuav ntawm nws.

Tsis tas li ntawd saib: Cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau rov qab tawm ntawm cov ntawv cog lus hauv Sun Belt, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hauv Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa thiab Texas

Tsawg qhov ncaj ncees los qiv tawm tsam

Thaum kawg, muaj qhov teeb meem ntawm kev qiv nyiaj hauv tsev thiab kev sib npaug hauv tsev ntawm credit, lossis HELOCs. Cov no yog cov nyiaj qiv thib ob uas tso cai rau koj qiv tawm tsam koj lub tsev kev ncaj ncees. Yuav kom tsim nyog rau ib qho twg, koj yuav tsum muaj kev ncaj ncees txaus: tsawg kawg 20%, lossis qee zaum, 15%.

Nws yog qhov ua tau tias cov nqi poob hauv tsev tuaj yeem tshem tawm qhov kev ncaj ncees txaus los tso koj qis dua 15% lossis 20% qhov pib, ua rau koj tsis tsim nyog rau qiv nyiaj hauv tsev lossis HELOC. Txawm hais tias koj tau txais HELOC ua ntej qhov ntawd tshwm sim, tus qiv nyiaj tuaj yeem txo koj qhov credit txwv tom qab kom coj nws rov qab raws li koj lub tsev tus nqi.

Thaum lub sij hawm kub tshaj plaws ntawm kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb-thaum lub tsev nyob boom, thaum tus nqi tau nce ntau dua 15% hauv ib xyoos, ob peb tus neeg yuav khoom tau txhawj xeeb txog cov nqi tsev thaum kawg poob. Qhov kev tsis txaus ntseeg, kev sib tw tsis txaus ntseeg tam sim no tau hloov pauv los ntawm kev ceev faj - dab tsi tus kws tshawb fawb vaj tsev Ali Wolf dubs FOBATT, lossis kev ntshai ntawm kev yuav khoom saum toj kawg nkaus.

Ntau ntawm NerdWallet

Holden Lewis sau rau NerdWallet. Email: [email tiv thaiv]. Twitter: @HoldenL.