Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj kev npaj yuav nce nws cov txiaj ntsig mus rau theem nruab nrab, nyob ib ncig ntawm 2.5%, thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo yog nyob rau hauv kev ntxhov siab tom qab qhov xav tsis thoob. muaj zog May cov neeg siv khoom-inflation data.
Stephen Stanley, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Amherst Pierpont tau hais tias "Lub Tsib Hlis CPI yog qhov txaus ntshai rau Fed qhov kev cia siab tias kev nce nyiaj yuav txias sai sai,"
Ntau tus kws tshawb fawb kev lag luam ntseeg tias tom qab ntawm CPI cov ntaub ntawv, Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell thiab nws cov npoj yaig yuav nrhiav txoj hauv kev los xa cov teeb liab hawkish los txhawb cov pej xeem thiab kev lag luam uas lawv mob siab txog kev txo nqi nyiaj txiag.
Fed yuav tshaj tawm nws txoj cai txiav txim siab thiab tshaj tawm cov kev kwv yees kev lag luam tshiab thiab "dot-ploj" kev kwv yees ntawm txoj hauv kev yav tom ntej ntawm cov paj laum ntawm 2 teev tsaus ntuj Hnub Wednesday. Powell yuav piav qhia txhua yam ntawm lub rooj sib tham xov xwm ntawm Fed's Washington lub hauv paus chaw haujlwm thaum 2:30 teev tsaus ntuj Eastern.
Nov yog peb txoj hauv kev uas cov kws tshawb fawb hais tias Fed tuaj yeem xa cov cim hawkish ntau dua:
Qhov loj ntawm hnub Wednesday tus nqi nce
Tshaj li rau lub asthiv dhau los, Fed cov tub ceev xwm tau sib koom ua ke ib ncig ntawm lub phiaj xwm los nce lub hauv paus tsev txhab nyiaj txoj cai tus nqi los ntawm ib nrab feem pua ntawm ob qho tib si Fed lub rooj sib tham lub lim tiam no thiab lub rooj sib tham tom ntej thaum kawg ntawm Lub Xya Hli.
Txawm hais tias CPI nyeem ntawv kub, feem ntau economist xav tias qhov no yog qhov yuav tshwm sim rau hnub Wednesday, kom txog rau thaum Wall Street Journal tau tshaj tawm ib tsab xov xwm hnub Monday tav su uas tau hais tias Fed cov tub ceev xwm yuav xav txog qhov xav tsis thoob ntawm kev lag luam nrog qhov loj dua li qhov xav tau 0.75 feem pua ntawm cov paj laum-tus nqi nce. Tsis ntev tom qab ntawv tau tshaj tawm, ib qho kev sib tw ntawm cov kws lag luam tseem ceeb, suav nrog los ntawm Goldman Sachs thiab JP Morgan, hloov kho lawv cov kev kwv yees kom suav nrog 0.75 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus nce siab rau hnub Wednesday. Lwm tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag tau ua raws li ib nrab-feem pua-tus taw tes nce mus.
Ib qho kev nce qib 75-piv txwv yuav yog qhov nce siab tshaj plaws hauv ze li 30 xyoo.
Kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag xa mus rau lub teeb liab Fed npaj siab kom qeeb txoj kev loj hlob, txawm tias nws ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag.
Fed kawg tau tshaj tawm nws qhov kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag, suav nrog nws cov kev kwv yees rau cov paj laum, hauv lub Peb Hlis. Qhov kev kwv yees no tau "dhau mus thoob plaws," sau tseg Richard Moody, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Regions Financial Corp., vim tias Fed tau kwv yees "qhov muag muag muag muag" - hauv lwm lo lus, kev txo qis ntawm kev nce nqi sai uas tsis muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nyiaj poob haujlwm.
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis, Fed tau xaum nyob rau nruab nrab ntawm tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 1.875% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, thiab xaus rau xyoo 2023 ntawm 2.75%, uas kuj yog tus nqi davhlau ya nyob twg.
Qhov kev kwv yees no yuav txawv, cov kws tshawb fawb hais tias.
"Peb cia siab tias FOMC yuav xa cov cim tsis meej uas nws npaj siab txwv txoj cai tswjfwm rau xyoo no thiab tom ntej los ntawm qib siab dua li qhov nws tau xav txog ntawm lub rooj sib tham Lub Peb Hlis. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, peb tab tom nrhiav rau qhov nruab nrab qhov nruab nrab los qhia txog txoj cai nruj dua rau xyoo no thiab 2023, txawm tias qhov ntawd yuav txhais tau tias muaj kev pheej hmoo siab dua ntawm kev lag luam, "said Oscar Munoz, macro strategist ntawm TD Securities.
Txawm hais tias qhov loj npaum li cas ntawm lub Rau Hli nce nce, Fed yuav nyob ze rau 1.875% tom qab lub rooj sib tham Lub Xya Hli, yog li cov lus nug yog ntau npaum li cas xyoo tas los 2022 qhov nruab nrab yuav yog, thiab tus nqi siab yuav mus rau xyoo 2023.
Cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Deutsche Bank tau hais tias Fed qhov kev kwv yees kev lag luam yuav tsum pom qhov tsis tshua muaj nqis, tab sis nres luv luv ntawm kev poob qis.
Lawv cia siab tias Fed yuav nce nws qhov kev kwv yees rau tus nqi poob haujlwm hauv 2023 thiab 2024, thiab txiav nws qhov kwv yees rau tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev.
Ntawm cov lus nug tseem ceeb ntawm kev nce nqi, Deutsche Bank tau kwv yees Fed yuav kwv yees tus nqi 5.6% kev nce nqi, ntsuas los ntawm tus kheej kev siv nyiaj txiag, ua raws li 3% kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag rau lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2023 thiab tom qab ntawd tus nqi 2.3% hauv 2024.
Powell txoj kev xav txog qhov yuav tsum tau nruj npaum li cas
Thaum lub Tsib Hlis, Powell tau hais tias Fed yuav tsis yig los coj tus nqi siab tshaj qhov nruab nrab, mus rau thaj chaw txwv. Nws zoo li yuav ua ob npaug ntawm qhov kev cog lus ntawd lub lim tiam no.
Powell "tsis muaj qhov xav tsis thoob yuav ua suab nrov dua ntawm nws lub rooj sib tham xov xwm hnub Wednesday tias nws muaj txhua lub sijhawm xyoo no," said Ed Yardeni, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Yardeni Research Inc.
"Ntawm ib sab, Powell yuav muaj kev sib cav hais tias Fed tsis tuaj yeem nce cov khoom noj thiab lub zog kom txo nqi. Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, nws yuav lees paub tias ib qho thiab ib qho khoom siv nkaus xwb hauv Fed lub cuab yeej rau kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi yog nce cov paj laum mus rau theem uas cuam tshuam kev thov rau txhua yam khoom thiab kev pabcuam txawm tias qhov ntawd ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis, "Yardeni tau hais.
Cov tawm los rau 10-xyoo Txhab Nyiaj Sau Nyiaj
TUBMUSD 10Y,
ntaus nws qib siab tshaj plaws txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2011 rau hnub Monday.
stocks
DJIA,
SPX,
poob qis heev ntawm kev cia siab ntawm hawkish Fed.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-75-basis-point-hike-here-are-3-ways-the-fed-can-sound-more-hawkish-this-week-11655168074? siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo