"Saib rov qab rau kaum xyoo dhau los lossis yog li ntawd, lub sijhawm los yuav cov khoom lag luam ntawm blue-chip REIT cov khoom lag luam muaj tsawg thiab nyob deb ntawm," hais tias Brad Thomas, CEO thiab tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas laus ntawm Wide Moat Research thiab tus kws sau ntawv. Intelligent REIT Investor. "Tam sim no muaj kev muag khoom tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim."
Chav tsev REITs tam sim no ua lag luam ntawm 21% luv nqi rau tus nqi ntawm lawv cov khoom muaj nqis, suav Green Street, lub tuam txhab kev lag luam kev lag luam. Raws li tsis ntev los no ib xyoos dhau los, lawv tau ua lag luam ntawm 3% luv nqi.
Nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob tias cov tsev REITs tau poob nrog rau cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus xyoo no hauv kev lag luam dav muag. Kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse yog nkag siab rau cov paj laum, uas nce nqi qiv.
Hnub Wednesday, Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau tshaj tawm tias Cov neeg siv khoom tus nqi nce siab ntawm 9.1% txhua xyoo pace nyob rau lub Rau Hli, paving txoj kev rau lwm tus nqi siab-tus nqi nce los ntawm Federal Reserve tom qab lub hlis no.
Tab sis cov nqi siab yog cov xov xwm zoo rau cov tsev REITs, vim lawv ua rau kev yuav tsev nyuaj dua. Tom qab ib lub sij hawm ntawm cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj qis, 30-xyoo tus nqi ruaj khov tau ze li ob npaug rau 5.51%. Nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, tus nqi nruab nrab uas twb muaj lawm-tsev muag khoom tau nce mus txog $ 400,000 thawj zaug, ntxiv straining affordability.
Haendel St. Juste, tus thawj coj thiab tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas REITs ntawm Mizuho Securities hais tias "Muaj qee tus neeg yuav khoom uas tam sim no raug thawb mus rau hauv lub pas dej xauj tsev." "Kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov tswv tsev yog qhov txiaj ntsig zoo rau sab qiv."
Cov ntawv xov xwm sau npe
Barron Saib Ua Ntej
Tau txais ib nyas saib ua ntej ntawm cov dab neeg sab saum toj ntawm Barron cov ntawv xov xwm rau hnub so. Hnub vas Xuv yav tsaus ntuj ET.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam hais tias qhov muag tawm hauv chav tsev REITs zoo li ua tiav, vim tias cov tuam txhab muaj cov ntawv txheeb xyuas kev noj qab haus huv thiab qhov kev cia siab rau kev xav tau xauj tsev zoo li muaj zog. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom-nqi-index qhia tau hais tias tus nqi xauj tsev tau nce siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1986 - nce 5.8% los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los.
John Pawlowski, tus thawj coj ntawm Green Street, pom zoo tias chav tsev REIT tus nqi tau poob qis heev. Muaj qee lub sij hawm thaum cov tsev xauj tsev "tso tawm nrog cov dej da dej ntawm cov lus piav qhia tsis zoo ntawm cov tsev nyob," nws hais. Feem ntau ntawm REITs nws them tsuas yog 20 xees rau 25 xees ntawm cov nuj nqis rau txhua duas las ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam, thiab nyiaj ntsuab txaus rau cov nuj nqis.
Kom paub meej, vaj tsev muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam. Ib qho tsuas yog yuav tsum tau saib rov qab rau xyoo 2020, thaum ntau lab tus neeg Asmeskas poob lawv txoj haujlwm thaum lub sijhawm Covid poob qis, thiab qhov cuam tshuam nws muaj rau cov nqi xauj tsev thiab nyob.
Pawlowski hais tias hauv nroog cov nroog ntug dej hiav txwv, suav nrog San Francisco, New York, hauv plawv nroog Los Angeles, thiab Seattle, "pom qhov poob qis tshaj plaws hauv cov tsev xauj tsev thiab cov neeg nyob poob qis," Pawlowski hais. Tab sis hauv thaj chaw Sunbelt, suav nrog Atlanta, Carolinas, Texas, Phoenix, thiab Las Vegas, cov nqi xauj tsev tau poob me ntsis thaum cov neeg nyob tseem muaj zog.
Cov chav tsev sib txawv REITs tso cai rau cov tub ua lag luam twv txiaj rau ntau qhov chaw hauv lub tebchaws, St. Juste hais.
Camden Cov Khoom Vaj Tse
(ticker: CPT) thiab
Cov zej zog nyob hauv nruab nrab Amelikas
(MAA) feem ntau yog Sunbelt tuav.
Vaj Huam Sib Luag
(EQR) thiab
AvalonBay Cov Zej Zog
(AVB) hnyav heev bicoastal.
Chav Tsev Khwv Nyiaj REIT
(AIRC) thiab
UDR
(UDR) muaj kev cuam tshuam rau ob qho tib si ntug dej hiav txwv thiab Sunbelt kev lag luam, thaum
Essex Khoom Vaj Tswv
(ESS) yog kev ua si sab hnub poob.
| Tuam Txhab / Ticker | Cov Nqe Tsis Ntev Los no | YTD Nqe Hloov | 2021 Tag Nrho Rov Qab | Kev Lag Luam Tus Nqi (bil) | Nqe / 2023E FFO* | Faib Sib Koom |
|---|
| BICOASTAL | | | | | | |
| AvalonBay Communities / AVB | $191.34 | -24.3% | 62.1% | $26.7 | 18.2 | 3.3% |
| Equity Residential / EQR | 71.29 | -21.2 | 57.3 | 26.8 | 18.7 | 3.5 |
| SUNBELT | | | | | | |
| Camden Property Trust / CPT | $132.56 | -25.8% | 83.1% | $14.1 | 18.6 | 2.8% |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities / MAA | 169.60 | -26.1 | 85.8 | 19.6 | 19.0 | 2.9 |
| BALANCED EXPOSURE rau ob lub khw | | | | | | |
| Cov nyiaj tau los tsev tsev REIT / AIRC | $41.29 | -24.5% | 47.7% | $6.5 | 16.6 | 4.4% |
| UDR / UDR | 44.83 | -25.3% | 61.1 | 14.3 | 17.9 | 3.4 |
E = kwv yees. FFO = nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm. * Tus nqi / nyiaj los ntawm kev ua haujlwm yog tus qauv ntsuas tus nqi rau REITs. Kev lag luam nruab nrab tam sim no yog 19.2.
Tau qhov twg los: Bloomberg
Pawlowski hais tias UDR thiab Equity Residential tau pauv los ntawm qhov sib npaug zoo sib xws rau lawv cov phooj ywg xyoo no, tab sis muaj qhov nyuaj rau xyoo 2020 thiab 2021. "Lawv tau mob hnyav heev thiab yog li lawv tsis yog txhua yam uas kim mus rau xyoo no. , thiab tam sim no kev ntsuas tau pib dua thiab cov peev txheej tau txhim kho thiab yog li UDR thiab Equity Residential yog ob qhov tshwj xeeb pheej yig REITs tam sim no. " Nws hais tias lawv tab tom ua lag luam ntawm cov txiaj ntsig siab dua ntawm 2022 cov nyiaj tau los dua li cov tsev REIT cov phooj ywg, thiab lawv qhov kev xav tau sab hauv ntawm cov nyiaj rov qab yog nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm tag nrho cov vaj tsev.
Ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj uas ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau chav tsev REITs yog tias vaj tsev yog cov khoom tsis muaj kev txiav txim siab, yog li txawm tias tib neeg poob lawv txoj haujlwm hauv kev lag luam lossis tau txais kev txiav nyiaj, qhov kev thov rau cov tsev xauj tsis poob qis li qhov kev thov rau kev txiav txim siab. khoom, xws li mus ncig los yog khoom kim heev. Pawlowski hais tias "Nyob rau hauv kev poob qis, cov nqi xauj tsev tseem tuaj yeem poob," Pawlowski hais. "Tab sis vim qhov kev thov tsawg dua, qhov kev thov yuav tuav tau zoo dua li lwm qhov chaw."
Gina Szymanski, tus thawj coj saib xyuas kev lag luam hauv REIT pab pawg kev nyab xeeb ntawm AEW Capital Management, hais tias REITs nyob hauv tsev yog "ib qho ntawm peb pawg nyiam," muab lawv cov nqi zog thiab cov hauv paus ntsiab lus. Nws sau tseg tias lawv "tsis tiv thaiv kev thim rov qab vim tias cov paj laum cuam tshuam rau txhua lub tuam txhab."
Tab sis, nws hais ntxiv, "cov ntawv sib npaug ntawm cov npe nyob hauv qee qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm txhua lub tuam txhab hauv peb lub ntiaj teb. Peb zoo siab heev tias lawv yuav rov qab los. "
Sau rau Lauren Foster ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
