4 yam tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam tam sim no

Avalon_studio | E+ | Cov duab Getty

HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif. - Muaj plaub qhov xwm txheej loj cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam Tshuag tam sim no, thiab qhov tsis paub meej nyob ib puag ncig yog tsim kev sib tw rau cov tub ua lag luam, cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam thiab cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam tau hais rau hnub Monday ntawm Lub Rooj Sib Tham Txog Kev Pov Hwm Nyiaj Txiag yav tom ntej.

Cov kev hloov pauv siab no yog kev nce nyiaj txiag, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai paj laum, US duas lub zog thiab kev cuam tshuam Lavxias ntawm Ukraine, hais tias Barry Ritholtz, tus thawj coj peev thiab tus thawj coj ntawm New York-based Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Anastasia Amoroso, tus thawj coj thiab tus thawj coj kev nqis peev ntawm iCapital Network tau hais tias "Qhov chaw macro tam sim no tsis paub tseeb,"

"Peb tau nyob ntawm qhov no tau cuaj lub hlis thiab peb tau pom dab tsi tiag tiag" tshwj tsis yog tias kev nce nqi yuav kav ntev dua li qhov xav tau, nws hais ntxiv.

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Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nce cov nqi qiv nyiaj tsis tu ncua txij li lub Peb Hlis xyoo no kom tswj tau cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus siab.

Cov thawj coj ntawm lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau hloov kho lawv cov kev cia siab rau sai npaum li cas thiab lawv yuav nce tus nqi paj laum li cas - Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws cov nyiaj tau los - kom ua tiav lawv lub hom phiaj.

Michael Arone, tus kws tshaj lij kev nqis peev rau US SPDR kev lag luam ntawm State Street Global Advisors hais tias "lub hom phiaj txav mus" yog qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws rau xyoo no.

Kev ua tsov ua rog hauv Ukraine kuj tseem muaj kev cuam tshuam thoob ntiaj teb rau cov nqi rau lub zog, khoom noj thiab lwm yam khoom siv.

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Thiab US duas yog trading ntawm nws qhov muaj zog tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo txheeb ze rau cov nyiaj xws li cov euro thiab cov Phaus Askiv. Lub zog ntawd tuaj yeem "ua haujlwm raws li lub taub hau ntawm ntau txoj hauv kev," Arone hais. Rau ib qho, kwv yees li 45% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab hauv lub S&P 500 Cov Lus Qhia yog tsim tawm sab nraud Asmeskas, thiab nyiaj daus las muaj zog tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau cov nyiaj tau los, nws hais. Cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem ua tus nqi qis dua, tab sis US xa tawm tau kim dua rau lwm lub tebchaws.

Lub caij no, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tab tom sim ua kom tiav "muab tsaws," uas yog cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua qeeb kev lag luam thiab tswj cov neeg siv khoom lag luam nrawm nrawm, tab sis tsis txhob ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis lossis poob haujlwm ntau heev.

Fed cov thawj coj tau rov lees paub qhov nyuaj ntawm txoj haujlwm ntawd tab sis Amoroso ntseeg tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tseem tab tom ua tiav.

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Nws tau hais tias "Peb tab tom pib txiav tawm ntawm cov khoom ntawm kev nce nqi," nws hais.

Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau qeeb tab sis "tsis poob ntawm pob tsuas," nws piav qhia. Cov nqi hluav taws xob yog nruab nrab, uas yuav tsum dhau sijhawm pub rau hauv moderating cov nqi khoom noj, nws hais. (Cov nqi zaub mov ib feem cuam tshuam txog cov nqi hluav taws xob cuam tshuam nrog kev thauj mus los.) Cov neeg siv khoom kuj tseem pib thawb rov qab rau cov tuam txhab rau cov nqi dav hlau ntau dua, cov nqi khoom noj thiab lwm yam nqi, Amoroso tau hais.

"Kuv xav tias nws nyuaj thiab nyuaj rau cov tuam txhab kom pom tseeb tus nqi nce," nws hais ntxiv.

Tau kawg, "kev lag luam tsis yog kev ua lag luam, thiab rov ua dua," Arone hais.

Feem ntau, kev lag luam Tshuag yuav pib nqi hauv kev lag luam rov qab zoo ua ntej cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag poob qis, raws li cov tub ua lag luam saib mus rau hnub zoo dua tom ntej, Arone tau hais. Qhov ntawd tau tshwm sim thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb, piv txwv li - cov khw muag khoom lag luam tsoo hauv qab thaum Lub Peb Hlis 23 tab sis tom qab ntawd tau nrawm nrawm txawm tias muaj teeb meem kev noj qab haus huv.

Zaj lus qhia rau cov tub ua lag luam txhawj xeeb txog kev poob nyiaj txiag: Ua ntej ntawm qhov sib txawv los ntawm kev yuav cov khoom muaj nqis uas ua tau zoo nyob rau theem pib ntawm kev lag luam rov qab los, Arone tau hais. Cov no suav nrog cov khoom muaj nqis, cov khoom lag luam me me thiab kev lag luam xws li lub zog, kev lag luam thiab nyiaj txiag, nws hais ntxiv.

Raws li lub ntsiab lus dav dav, Amoroso kuj pom zoo yuav "thaum nws xav tias txaus ntshai ua li ntawd."

"Raws li tej yam tsis zoo thiab tej zaum tseem ua tau, kev yuav khoom thaum lawv muag khoom ua rau muaj kev nkag siab zoo," nws hais.

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/4-big-factors-impacting-markets-and-the-economy-right-now.html